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stormtracker

March 11-12 Potential Storm

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

if there is any good news from the run...that Great Lakes low hasnt started diving yet and the storm is already off the VA capes

yea but like i said above the faster speed of the STJ wave also means less room to amplify behind the departing 50/50 so if its not one problem its the other...there is a shorter window then I would like there between those two features.  But there is one...

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree with this... I am ok if the consensus today settles on a central VA jackpot.  I don't want to see that start to get south of Richmond though...thats when we are in trouble. 

Yup, to me that means it's morphed into a totally different storm and setup. Central VA is in range for typical model suppression BS stuff.

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Hasn’t said much.  He nailed yesterday better than almost anyone though.  Had only like 3-5 for NYC til the last minute.  I’ve noticed once inside 72 hours his forecasts for amounts can be pretty good.  Prior to that though he is often off the rails    

See this is where regional perspective matters...he had me in 6-12" and I had 1" so I would argue he didn't do that well...lol

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5 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Biggest GFS run of Ji's life coming up!

nah...game is over. Bob Chill promised it wouldnt go south anymore and everything went south after that.....

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Either you are completely uninformed or you are trolling. The 6z and 18z GFS receive copious amounts of satellite derived data. It is not "old data" and it is not "lower res" they just do not receive weather balloon data. However, they get aircraft reports etc in addition to the satellite data. 

It has been mentioned time and time again by red taggers that the advent of the modern weather satellite has largely reduced the argument about "the energy not being on shore yet" - it can factor in a bit - but satellites see most if not all areas of the globe. We have geostationary satellites and polar orbiting satellites all sending back great data. Just look at the data that the new GOES sends back. 

Your argument is completely wrong. 

Okay. So why does the 6z/18z generally resemble each other and 00z/12z sing different tunes? There is something at play there, no?

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

he has hardly mentioned this storm which is concerning. I think in my gut its game over...ensembles suck....pro mets dont like it....all i am hoping for now is just some blind good luck.

JB is the only person i have ever heard talk about the brazilian model which is why i made the post. 

I can't put my finger on it... its not any one big thing... if you step back and look at this setup from the hemispheric view it looks great...all systems go.  But then when I zoom in and examine it something just feels off.  Its a lot of little things.  NS vort is weaker/less diggy then I would like.  I don't trust the STJ this year.  That wave diving down on top into the lakes bugs me.  Progressive has won the day time and time again this year.  Out of sync has wont the day time and time again this year.  So its not any one thing...its just death by a thousand paper cuts kind of stuff that all together has me not feeling good about this. 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

nah...game is over. Bob Chill promised it wouldnt go south anymore and everything went south after that.....

I got a hot stock tip for you too

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yup, to me that means it's morphed into a totally different storm and setup. Central VA is in range for typical model suppression BS stuff.

yea... from there slighty more ridging and less confluence at the last minute combined with the tendency for models to under do the expanse of the CCB at range... combine that and all you then need is a relatively minor nudge north in the actual track or intensity.  So the runs that show a track right over the outer banks or just slightly east would only need to correct to just inside to put us in the game.  A slight correction like that is well within normal model error at 84 hours.  And I do think the correction is north more then 50 percent of the time.  But if we start seeing the VA NC border area jackpot and richmond fringed...thats when I worry its too much to overcome...we have needed that adjustment many times the last few years and it failed every single time.  It did trend north but only enough to tease us with the fringes of the qpf. 

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2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Don’t crucify me for the ICON post, but 87 sure looks interesting.

That looks about exactly where NoVA and Maryland peeps would want it that this point. Then we could get that gradual North trend and be money. Too bad it's a JV model though

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Just now, Jandurin said:

Is it time to short the GFS?

You need to think bigger than that. Short all companies associated with snow shovels and snow blowers. 

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Just now, Jandurin said:

Is it time to short the GFS?

i'd be willing to short this winter.  i still have some doubts about a southern slider in mid-march.  i'll be dialed into these 12z'ers.  should be interesting, if anything.

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I worry that the vortex now over the northeast may be just a little too far west to allow our shortwave room to come north and its proximity is what ends up shearing our trough a little too much to get the bext precip to us. 

 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

GFS is in through hour 30 and there's not many changes to speak of at the H5 level. 

At 36 our Pacific Northwest/Northern Plains s/w looks to be a little west. 

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

I worry that the vortex now over the northeast may be just a little too far west to allow our shortwave room to come north and its proximity is what ends up shearing our trough a little too much to get the bext precip to us. 

 

i was thinking that just now, but i'm also wondering if it's possible to be overdone in march.  could be wishful thinking, but it just seems odd to have a suppressed storm this late in the season.

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i'd be willing to short this winter.  i still have some doubts about a southern slider in mid-march.  i'll be dialed into these 12z'ers.  should be interesting, if anything.

They happen...they just arent typically remembered because outside the mountains down there its REALLY hard to get a lot of snow this late.  So typically they end up big snows for the mountains in SW VA and NC and just a rain snow mix for everyone else with some accumulations but not a huge historic storm.  But that said there have even been a few march historic storms that missed us south and pasted southern VA.  I think one happened in 1980.  So I don't rule out a slide south of us with this pattern.  Its very possible.  So is a trend north if the 50/50 relaxes some.  We will see

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i was thinking that just now, but i'm also wondering if it's possible to be overdone in march.  could be wishful thinking, but it just seems odd to have a suppressed storm this late in the season.

3/9/17

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28 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

@mappy Can we please ban posting of 6/18z gfs? They are complete garbage runs. No idea why GFS runs 4 times a day with 2 times being old data, lower res.

Sure, right after we ban you. 

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Archambault event delayed.....neg NAO hanging strong for another 5-10. Hang tight. Not a bad thing.

 

 

yea the nao not breaking down is why the 50/50 isnt moving out as fast and might end up hurting us...and sure that COULD lead to another threat later on...but come on this threat was looking great a couple days ago...and we are running out of time.  So it will become increasingly harder to get significant snow into the cities even in a great setup every day here.  I agree there may be more threats given the trend in the pattern but I am not ready to jump off this and onto that yet. 

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