Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I've never seen a crazier period of time since 2011-13 where it absolutely refuses to snow here. Spin the wheel of ways to fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Storm is already gone by then yea just wondering if that's acting as a bit of a kicker. i'm grasping for reasons why a storm in mid-march would be suppressed lol. we're close enough to where it's worth looking at the rest of the runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 What are you all going to do if the Euro comes in and shows a HECS 12+ for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, ryanconway63 said: What are you all going to do if the Euro comes in and shows a HECS 12+ for DC Jump back on the It's Going To Snow bandwagon, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, ryanconway63 said: What are you all going to do if the Euro comes in and shows a HECS 12+ for DC dance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: What are you all going to do if the Euro comes in and shows a HECS 12+ for DC storm mode and pinky posts like its my full time job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 28 minutes ago, yoda said: CMC just misses... better down to EZF and south Along a line from EZF to Harrisonburg is the sig snow line of 3" or more... CMC shows a C VA jackpot. RIC is on SE edge almost... 6-9 for most of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: What are you all going to do if the Euro comes in and shows a HECS 12+ for DC That seems nearly impossible since we hardly see big swings on the Euro. I don’t see where it’s that much chaos. CMC looks similar to the 12z GFS. Euro hasn’t liked this for a while. Now if on the off chance Euro showed an amped bomb then yes that is chaos. But who thinks that is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: What are you all going to do if the Euro comes in and shows a HECS 12+ for DC ask the ecmwf why they think april fool's day is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That seems nearly impossible since we hardly see big swings on the Euro. I don’t see where it’s that much chaos. CMC looks similar to the 12z GFS. Euro hasn’t liked this for a while. Now if on the off chance Euro showed an amped bomb then yes that is chaos. But who thinks that is likely. 12z CMC is better than the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The 6z ensembles were a disaster. Lets see if 12z goes back north but the ensembles have been useless. Shame on u america lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: What are you all going to do if the Euro comes in and shows a HECS 12+ for DC I don't know why I'm even doing this to myself because the Euro has been the worst model for us consistently, but I'm waiting and watching with bated breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 GGEM sticks with the idea of a stripe of snow through central VA south of DC. It's had the same basic setup for 2 1/2 days. I'm not sure if it's right, but it's arguably the steadiest of the globals. Makes sense too, as it's a middle-of-the-road solution compared to the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC is better than the 12z GFS Better, if you live in VA and only better at hour 60, 66 is worse even for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC is better than the 12z GFS Yeah did see that. After I typed that. In your valued opinion is this chaos at this point? Maybe it is and I just don’t see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, 87storms said: is that also a piece of a PV coming down through the lakes as well? looks like that wants to squash things too. my guess is that this has some potential to move north, but clearly it won't be by a lot. Honestly that wave diving down seems to be late enough that it shouldnt be too much of a problem. By the time that comes into play things have already gone wrong... the key issue is getting phasing in the TN Valley. Get that and the system comes north...miss that and its going to slide east and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 cmc sped things up too, for better or worse. i would think we want a slower solution. edit: might be negligible, after looking more closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z model runs look like convergence to me. Now we hope for a north trend. It's better than hoping for a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: The 6z ensembles were a disaster. Lets see if 12z goes back north but the ensembles have been useless. Shame on u america lol The problem is that we're too close to the event happening to have the GEFS be useful. That system is not designed for spread in the 1-3 day range. The SREF is designed for that range, but we all know that it's a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Next model runs Ukie 12:30 and Euro 1:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, high risk said: The problem is that we're too close to the event happening to have the GEFS be useful. That system is not designed for spread in the 1-3 day range. The SREF is designed for that range, but we all know that it's a hot mess. I'll try to post the RGEM ensemble in about 1/2 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. Can’t see this going anywhere but north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. It’s gotta come north. The question I would ask you would be, what are the models not seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Quasievil said: The question I would ask you would be, what are the models not seeing? I think they are seeing everything. All the players are on the field, just not a well oiled machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. Can’t see this going anywhere but north.Does it also help that there's no high pressure to the north? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z GEFS looks quite dry especially compared to previous 2 runs. Not sure that is worth much as it looks lock step with the op. Just something I observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. Can’t see this going anywhere but north. I'm feeling better about it today. Consensus is just south of us. I do think we see the typical never fails north adjustment the last 48 hours. It's close enough that can work for us. I didn't want to see it squashed like the euro. We can work with where this is now imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. Can’t see this going anywhere but north. I'm in agreement but when do they make a move. I'm not one who panics but I really thought we would see a better 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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