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March 11-12 Potential Storm


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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

This needs to be a qpf bomb like UKIE had yesterday for this to really work given the time of year it is. Until that shows back up on modeling, little improvements are not gonna get it done...

UKIE was the top of top end solutions though. It had 2" QPF for DCA, and even that would probably be 10" or 12" at the most. 1" QPF would probably work out and be a low end warning event, but not if strung out like the GFS showed.

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The lagging 50/50 at 500 mb aside I thought we saw some improvements on the overall run compared to the 06z gfs.

If this was just 3-4 years ago and I saw this general setup on the GFS I would be pulling my snow gear out for some serious shoveling even up here just a touch above the MD/PA line. But since the upgrade 2 years ago there haven't been too many opportunities to see if the GFS bias of being progressive and/or suppressive with these type systems is still in play. I have seen it come into play occasionally but that could have been more happenstance then a true bias. Here's hoping that this bias still exists.

We could buy into the bias theory if the other models didn't agree with the more southern and suppressed solution.

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I am going to state the obvious and probably 10 of you will post exceptions but its time to keep your expectations in check.  If you look back at previous HECS/BECS over the past 20 years, the models at this range and even several days before this range did not waiver much.  They only got stronger and the bright happy bug-out eye emoticons increased in frequency as we got closer.  So this will not be a HECS/BECS in my opinion.  Will it be a SECS?  Perhaps a chance but it needs to come back today - but my memory seems to be that like a woman, once she leaves, she ain't coming back.  This is some harsh reality to accept but it is time to keep expectations in check.  I hope I am proven wrong.       

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Just for perspective...this is the adjustment we need from the GFS to have a HECS across our entire forum.  We need that inside line instead of the outside line.  The low does gain latitude and the trajectory is fine.  We dont need a NORTH trend we just need the transfer to be a slight bit inside of where it was.  Then adjust the track with the same trajectory and were golden.  Wee are talking a 50 mile shift here over 3 days...well within normal error. 

  I think that is VERY doable at this lead.  I would be shocked if we DIDNT see at least that amount of adjustment in the low track one way or the other between now and gametime.  If the track actually stays exactly what the gfs shows to within a few miles from 84 hours out that would be amazing.  And the adjustment IMO is north a bit more then 50 percent of the time.  So again...I wanted us to stay in the game with a close miss to the south today...this gfs run was just that.  I was worried we would see a suppressed solution south of Richmond and that would have been an Uh Oh moment for me.  This was perfectly acceptable for right now. 

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9 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

We could buy into the bias theory if the other models didn't agree with the more southern and suppressed solution.

Not sure consensus worked too well for yesterdays storm. Just about all guidance jumper significantly westward 24 hrs prior. That didn't work out to well. 

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure consensus worked too well for yesterdays storm. Just about all guidance jumper significantly westward 24 hrs prior. That didn't work out to well. 

most miller b systems tend to do that (ala boxing day) 

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It's really sucked this year.  Remember during the January blizzard it gave us one run of like 20 inches within like 4 days of the storm, then the next run...POOF.  

It's been awful. It used to be one of the best models. Now it jumps from coastal bomb to southern slider and back all the time. Maybe that got tweaked like the Euro did? I need to remind myself not to give it so much consideration.

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38 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

we just need the low over the upper low not to stall and actually shift a couple of degrees latitude closer to Nova Scotia.  It's the reason why out storm moves east too much before turning.  As you say, we don't need a huge change but we do need that feature to get a little out of the way. 

YES... totally agree...just was trying to point out how minor the adjustment is though...we dont need a 200 miles shift in features.  We need the 50/50 low to be "however less suppressive" it needs to be to allow a 50 mile adjustment NW in the track of the low.  I don't imagine that would take much.  So we arent needing that 50/50 low to be hundreds of miles or a significant depth change just a slight weaker presentation OR a slightly quicker exit and we would probably win here.  I am not saying I feel like it WILL work out...but that this is so so close that saying it won't is premature also. 

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Just now, mappy said:

most miller b systems tend to do that (ala boxing day) 

My point was that just because there is a consensus in guidance doesn't mean you have to buy whole hog into it. You have to look at the models/runs themselves and know their tendencies then sometimes form your own conclusion. Like with yesterdays storm, I hoped that their shift west was legit but I had very serious reservations about it because I have seen them do that quite often in the past leading into a miller B. That said, I am not saying the southern solutions are wrong, I am just saying just because they have a consensus doesn't necessarily mean that they are right.

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29 minutes ago, mappy said:

On the same hill as the Euro outcome for yesterday? 

It was a good hill to die on. It did get the WAA part pretty well. 

For this event the GFS has been very consistent. All the run to run changes we’ve seen are very reasonable given the lead times. 

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

My point was that just because there is a consensus in guidance doesn't mean you have to buy whole hog into it. You have to look at the models/runs themselves and know their tendencies then sometimes form your own conclusion. Like with yesterdays storm, I hoped that their shift west was legit but I had very serious reservations about it because I have seen them do that quite often in the past leading into a miller B. That said, I am not saying the southern solutions are wrong, I am just saying just because they have a consensus doesn't necessarily mean that they are right.

i hear you. 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It was a good hill to die on. It did get the WAA part pretty well. 

For this event the GFS has been very consistent. All the run to run changes we’ve seen are very reasonable given the lead times. 

ha, just giving you a hard time man. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It was a good hill to die on. It did get the WAA part pretty well. 

For this event the GFS has been very consistent. All the run to run changes we’ve seen are very reasonable given the lead times. 

My problem isnt where the GFS is...The gfs actually looks exactly like I would want to see right now.  But I want the CONSENSUS to be that.  Right now the GFS is the northern most amped outliner.  The consensus based on everything last night and now so far 12z is south of that and south of where I want.  If the euro comes in exactly like the GFS I will feel better.  But if it comes in with a weaker south system that barely gets precip into Richmond... I want to see some other guidance agreeing with the GFS, were getting a little too close to gametime for it to still be all on its own here and me to feel comfortable about that. 

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2 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

The 12 Ukie is horrible. What a shift from 24 hours ago. Looks like it wouldn't give us any precip. 

I liked the gfs op run. But I wanted that to be what the center of guidance was. It now looks like the gfs is the extreme amplified outlier among all guidance. Not feeling any better today. 

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