Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yeah, HRRR has been consistent with some pretty stout cells within the line that'll move through this afternoon from IA into S. WI. More of a discrete mode out east where SPC has the 5% probs but not much in the way of updraft helicity being shown.

It's been a "bright overcast" here in Madison most of the morning. Clouds are thin enough that the camera at the top of our 1,400' broadcast tower at work can see blue sky.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Imo the better threat looks to be shifting west due to ongoing mcs in Indiana. This will keep cloud debris persistent across Indiana and western Ohio. More broken cloud pattern in Iowa and Illinois so enough sun to promote instability. Hrrr is consistent on bringing a squall line into western IL around 5-6pm and has some discrete activity forming ahead of it. I think IL could be more in play for a tornado threat than further east. DVN also mentioned some wave in SW Iowa could help to back winds more later

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Eh the tornado threat tonight for the OH/IN/MI area is more based around the low really pumping in warm air and kicking storms off ahead of that cold front via a shortwave. That’s why there is more curvature in the hodographs than out in the western areas 

My question is if the more robust prefrontal development is delayed long enough farther east and if enough surface based instability is around after dark for an elevated threat.  Perhaps, but a late arrival is my concern for eastern areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had on and off heavy showers this morning and currently is overcast in Columbus, Ohio. Temperature is around 72 degrees but with high humidity (95.1%) and relatively high dew points (70).  West of us is definitely going to get the worst of it, especially around IN/OH border. 3km HRRR not looking too bad atm 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My garden really took a beating.  One of my big hummer plants was partially broken and another was snapped off near the base.  There may be more damage once I more closely examine the garden.  Little bits of tree debris are strewn across the yard, with a few bigger pieces mixed in.  A neighbor lost a 4.5" limb off one of his trees.  I was expecting the severe wind to come from the west, but it oddly came more from the south, which was bad for my garden.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

My garden really took a beating.  One of my big hummer plants was partially broken and another was snapped off near the base.  There may be more damage once I more closely examine the garden.  Little bits of tree debris are strewn across the yard, with a few bigger pieces mixed in.  A neighbor lost a 4.5" limb off one of his trees.  I was expecting the severe wind to come from the west, but it oddly came more from the south, which was bad for my garden.

This might be(and probably is) totally wrong, but the little mesovortex that tracked over Cedar Rapids might have changed the wind direction to southerly(towards it), especially for the area immediately to the south and east of where it tracked, you’d fall into that pool. Down in Iowa City, it was northwesterly, as expected. Probably about 50mph in magnitude here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
ILC007-037-089-093-099-103-111-141-252200-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0068.180925T2101Z-180925T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
401 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Kendall County in northeastern Illinois...
  Northern La Salle County in north central Illinois...
  Southeastern Ogle County in north central Illinois...
  Eastern Lee County in north central Illinois...
  De Kalb County in north central Illinois...
  Kane County in northeastern Illinois...
  Southern McHenry County in northeastern Illinois...
  Southern Boone County in north central Illinois...

* Until 500 PM CDT

* At 400 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Stillman Valley to near Wyanet, moving east at
  55 mph.

  These are very dangerous storms.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Aurora, Elgin, Carpentersville, St. Charles, Oswego, Algonquin,
  West Chicago, McHenry, Batavia, Woodstock, Geneva, Sycamore,
  Yorkville, Little Rock, Plano, Rochelle, Island Lake, Marengo,
  Sandwich and Mendota.

Including the following interstates...
 I-39 between mile markers 62 and 112.
 I-88 between mile markers 67 and 119.
 I-90 between mile markers 23 and 53.

This includes...  Northern Illinois University, Sandwich Fairgrounds,
Aurora University, Elgin Community College, Fermilab, IL Math and
Science Academy, Kane County Cougars Ballpark, Mchenry County
College, Mchenry County Fairgrounds, Moraine Hills State Park,
Tri-County Fairgrounds, and Waubonsee Community College.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing
widespread wind damage across across western Lee and Ogle Counties.
SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il
422 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018

ILC007-037-089-093-099-103-111-141-252200-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-180925T2200Z/
Kendall IL-La Salle IL-Ogle IL-Lee IL-De Kalb IL-Kane IL-McHenry IL-
Boone IL-
422 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR KENDALL...NORTHERN LA SALLE...SOUTHEASTERN OGLE...EASTERN LEE...
DE KALB...KANE...SOUTHERN MCHENRY AND SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 421 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Kingston to near La Moille, moving east at 60
mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Aurora, Elgin, Carpentersville, St. Charles, Oswego, Algonquin, West
Chicago, McHenry, Batavia, Woodstock, Geneva, Sycamore, Yorkville,
Little Rock, Plano, Rochelle, Island Lake, Marengo, Sandwich and
Mendota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing
widespread wind damage across Lee and Ogle Counties. SEEK SHELTER
NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Next three hours are going to be VERY interesting in regards to the evolution of both the squall line in IL and the scattered storms ahead of it. Most of Northern IN and OH have now had atleast an hour's worth of sun, resulting in a quick spike upward in temperatures and CAPE. East Central IN has the good shear/helicity values that @Indystorm just mentioned. Current thinking is an MD pops up downstream of the current watch here in the next hour, followed by a possible acceleration in development of scattered cells ahead of the front. If we do see any TOR action, I would watch the classic Kokomo, IN-Van Vert, OH corridor initially, following that general line into NW OH. If not, there is the main squall line directly on the front to keep an eye on as well.

We shall see! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Sun for the last few hours just south of Toledo. I really am quite concerned with how this is unfolding that we’re going to have a serious situation this evening. The way that shortwave is moving in, combined with CAPE at the surface of 2000 j/kg this has all the makings of a mini outbreak this evening

Better preemptively seek shelter now before it’s too late.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...