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2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter
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2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Might be a decent roll cloud with the line from the looks on radar.  :weenie:

Here is the leading edge of the line as it rolled into Huntington County. We were on this particular part of the line because it was the section that didn't look outflow dominated. Nothing severe, but pretty cool nonetheless.

IMG_0846.jpeg

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Looks like at least a modest severe threat around here on Wednesday. Instability, or lack of, is the biggest issue, with rather poor mid level lapse rates and lots of clouds expected.  If better heating can be realized, then it could get a little more interesting.  Surface low is progged to be deepening with respectable wind fields. 

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IA/MO upgraded to ENH risk for tor... 10% probs introduced

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

   Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST MO TO
   CENTRAL IA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Tornadoes and isolated to scattered damaging winds are expected from
   parts of Texas to Iowa, mainly through about 9 PM CDT. The most
   likely area for multiple tornadoes is from northwest Missouri to
   central Iowa.

   ...TX to IA...
   Have upgraded to Enhanced Risk for tornadoes across parts from
   northwest MO to central IA. 

   Shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will move
   north-northeast into the central Great Plains through tonight.
   Attendant 1003-mb surface cyclone near the central OK/KS border
   should deepen slightly as it tracks toward the Omaha vicinity by
   evening. An extensive QLCS is ongoing in an arc from eastern OK into
   north-central TX and then through central TX. The surging portion of
   the line will generally track east towards the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex
   regions with trailing portion more slowly progressing east across
   much of eastern/southern TX this afternoon. In addition, more
   discrete convection should develop from the Lower MO Valley towards
   the Upper MS Valley during the late afternoon.

   The swath of stronger low-level flow will shift northeast from KS/OK
   towards IA/MO in conjunction with the ejecting trough and surface
   cyclone. This should correspondingly result in enlarged low-level
   hodographs overspreading the western periphery of moderate
   boundary-layer heating underway across central/eastern MO into
   eastern IA. This scenario may result in multiple, discrete tornadic
   supercells developing from northwest MO across central IA around
   peak heating. 
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Meanwhile downgraded here in WI despite more sunshine than I thought this AM...nearly overcast now though. It smells like spring outside which feels very strange with the trees beginning to turn. HRRR is bouncing around like mad every hour with the location of potential discrete rotating cells in S. WI, but what it does tell me is I need to keep a close watch on radar trends later this afternoon.

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1 minute ago, Chinook said:

For what it's worth - the significant tornado parameter is up to 1.0 over the Kansas City region, and is expected to reach 1.0-2.0 values over Missouri/Iowa in 2 hrs (SPC mesoanalysis)

Even within that line itself the environment is pretty favorable for mesos. Any northward surging segment of that line would be a candidate.

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Although it pales in comparison to all the excitement with Michael, I went on a spur-of-the-moment chase yesterday afternoon and got on the little cell near Arena/Spring Green, WI just as it was tornado-warned. The updraft tower and striated base can be seen in this video from my dash-mounted GoPro. A few scans showed a bit of a couplet but there was nothing confirmed from it.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

That trough early next week showing up across guidance, including quite a strong signal on the ensembles, has my attention for a potential severe wx threat (and a widespread one at that) assuming enough moisture return is available. There already is an established low amplitude trough across the central US and a powerful jet max slides SE into it and somewhat amplifies/kicks the trough negative tilt. The 12z Euro was getting 60s dewpoints all the way into Michigan.

There are, as it sits right now, some similarities synoptically to the 10/18/07 severe wx event.

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Getting a little concerned for Indiana for midday election day Tuesday from looking at 18z GFS parameters as well.  Of course things will change but bears watching.

Blue dog weather if it pans out.  As much as I want some action be nice if itt fizzles. Sorry, couldn't resist, spank my socialist ass Hoosier. :whistle:

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One of the first things I look for in these non-summertime setups is the moisture return.  In this case, moisture return actually gets underway on Saturday/Sunday in advance of an initial system that ejects into the upper Midwest, although it is fairly modest. Still, it's better to have that than a setup that has very little time for moisture advection.  Moisture is just one factor of course.  Will have to see about timing/track/intensity of the Tuesday system, which will play a role in location and magnitude of any severe threat.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I believe that's called priming the pump. November 5th of last year I was chasing. Let's do this.

That being said, it's not the most ideal prime the pump scenario ever, as the cold front with the lead system does press fairly far south, especially farther west toward the Plains.  The front with that first system never really moves through the OV though.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

That being said, it's not the most ideal prime the pump scenario ever, as the cold front with the lead system does press fairly far south, especially farther west toward the Plains.  The front with that first system never really moves through the OV though.

If that lead system doesnt dig far south we will be in a very favorable position because even with it weaker it would bring moisture north while not shunting it back south any.

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