cyclone77 Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 There was also a birdfart EF-0 out in Cedar County in DVN's western cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 1 hour ago, NTXYankee said: Apparently per ILN a tornado is confirmed in Franklin County on east side of Columbus. When it occurred I don’t know. We had storms in the early morning but received no alerts. 000 NOUS41 KILN 261716 PNSILN OHZ055-270045- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 116 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2018 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED SOUTH OF BROAD STREET IN EAST COLUMBUS IN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO... ...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUING TO SURVEY STORM DAMAGE IN EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON OH HAS CONFIRMED THAT A TORNADO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DAMAGE IN EAST COLUMBUS SOUTH OF BROAD STREET, EAST OF JAMES ROAD. THE SURVEY TEAM IS CONTINUING TO ASSESS DAMAGE IN AND AROUND THIS AREA AND A FINAL ASSESSMENT INCLUDING RESULTS FROM THE SURVEY WILL BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. INFORMATION WILL ALSO BE MADE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN. $$ KK Officially an EF1 that happened just before 6am this morning with no tornado warning. Still can't figure out why it pastes like this for me. Quote PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 630 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2018 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN EAST COLUMBUS AND NEAR BEXLEY IN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO... START LOCATION...OLDE TOWNE EAST NEIGHBORHOOD IN COLUMBUS IN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO END LOCATION...MAYFAIR NEIGHBORHOOD OF COLUMBUS IN FRANKLIN COUNTY OHIO DATE...09/26/2018 ESTIMATED TIME...553 AM EDT MAXIMUM EF- SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS PATH LENGTH...3.75 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.9564/-82.9702 ENDING LAT/LON...39.9712/-92.9025 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRANKLIN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND HOMELAND SECURITY, CONDUCTED A STORM DAMAGE SURVEY TO AREAS OF COLUMBUS AND BEXLEY OHIO IN FRANKLIN COUNTY. DAMAGE EVIDENT OF A WEAK TORNADO BEGAN IN THE OLDE TOWNE NEIGHBORHOOD OF COLUMBUS. THERE WERE NUMEROUS LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN OR TREE TRUNKS SNAPPED, ALONG WITH A PICKUP TRUCK THAT WAS BRIEFLY PARTIALLY LIFTED OFF THE GROUND SUFFERED DAMAGE TO BOTH PASSENGER SIDE TIRES AS IT WAS FORCED BACK DOWN TO THE PAVEMENT. IN THE SAME AREA OF OLDE TOWNE, THERE WAS DAMAGE TO POWER POLES. DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN EF0 STRENGTH TORNADO. FURTHER DOWN THE DAMAGE PATH, SEVERAL AREAS OF TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE BEXLEY AREA. FURTHER DOWN THE PATH IN THE MAYFAIR NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR EAST BROAD STREET AND SOUTH JAMES ROAD, THIS IS WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TORNADO DAMAGE OCCURRED AND WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE THE HIGHEST. SEVERAL HOMES IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD SUSTAINED ROOF, SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. THERE WERE NUMEROUS LARGE TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES, GARAGES AND VEHICLES. ADDITIONALLY, 2 CINDER BLOCK GARAGES HAD THEIR ROOF COMPLETELY LIFTED OFF, WITH 1 OR 2 BLOCK WALLS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED. IT WAS THIS DAMAGE WHICH WAS CONSISTENT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT 90 MPH. DAMAGE IN THIS NEIGHBORHOOD WAS CONSISTENT WITH LOW END EF1 TORNADO WINDS. THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE NOR REPORTS OF DAMAGE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA, SO FROM HERE IT APPEARS THE TORNADO LIFTED AND DISSIPATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: 2 tornadoes confirmed by DTX Public Information Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 314 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018 ...SUMMARY NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR THE 09/25/2018 TORNADO EVENTS... ...TORNADO CONFIRMED AND RATED EF1 IN FRENCHTOWN TOWNSHIP IN MONROE COUNTY... .Frenchtown Township tornado... Update...No new changes to this tornado event. Rating: EF-1 Estimated peak wind: 95-100 mph Path length /Statute/: 4.3 miles Path width /Maximum/: 400 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start date: SEP 25 2018 Start time: 823 PM EDT Start location: 41.9562 / -83.4321 End date: SEP 25 2018 End time: 832 PM EDT End location: 42.0099 / -83.3892 SURVEY SUMMARY: The path began as weak EF0 damage, mainly to trees, until near Reinhardt and Heiss roads where it became a solid EF0. The tornado reached EF1 strength near Toben and South Stony Creek roads where roofing material was removed leaving exposed trusses and windows that were blown out of homes in the area. Garage doors were also blown in and many trees were damaged and uprooted. EF0 damage to siding and tree limbs was noted before the tornado dissipated near North Stoney Creek road and the railroad tracks. EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories. EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph ...SECOND TORNADO CONFIRMED AND RATED EF0 IN MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES... .Berlin Township and Gibraltar tornado... Update...This is new information regarding this tornado event. Rating: EF-0 Estimated peak wind: 65 mph Path length /Statute/: 4.0 miles Path width /Maximum/: 100 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start date: SEP 25 2018 Start time: 845 PM EDT Start location: 42.0356 / -83.264 End date: SEP 25 2018 End time: 852 PM EDT End location: 42.0870 / -83.225 SURVEY SUMMARY: An EF0 tornado began in Berlin Township in Monroe County just south of Sigler Road on North Dixie Highway. The tornado remained at EF0 strength throughout the entire path length, before dissipating near the intersection of Meadow Lane and Ostreich Road in Wayne County near the border of Brownstown Charter Township and the city of Gibraltar. Damage included multiple limbs and large trees downed, along with missing shingles to a house near the end of the tornado path. EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories. EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 To 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$ RBP/DRK/AA/BT/IRL/TF/SP They confirmed a 3rd tornado (in Rockwood). The 3 tornadoes were in relatively close distance to each other. I had a torrential 2.48" of rain in less than an hour, but no severe. Gibralter is just to my south. I missed a tornado on August 1st about 5 miles to my west. Its crazy that in such a lackluster severe season in MI I missed 2 tornadoes by mere miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across primarily parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. ...IA/northern IL/southern WI/Lower MI/northwest IN... A shortwave trough, currently moving through OR and northern CA/northwest NV per satellite imagery, is expected to deamplify as it progresses downstream through a continued split belts of westerlies converging into strong zonal flow straddling the Canadian/U.S. border area. Forcing for ascent attendant to this trough will shift east across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest by Monday afternoon, including across the surface warm front extending from eastern IA into far northern IL or far southern WI. Upper air analyses from Saturday night into this morning indicated continued poleward moisture return across the southern Great Plains through the lower Missouri Valley to northern IL, along and south of a stationary boundary, currently extending from northern KS to northern IL/IN to northern OH. Ascent attendant to the progressive shortwave trough will induce surface wave development along this front in southern to southeast IA by early Monday afternoon, with the low tracking into northern IL as the front advances north as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within a low-level warm advection regime north of the surface front from IA to along and north of the IL/WI border to southern Lower MI at 12Z Monday. Models do suggest most of the precipitation through Monday afternoon may occur north of the front. However, there is some indication per forecast soundings, that sufficient diabatic heating/weak-moderate destabilization will occur within a relatively moist environment (surface dew points into the middle 60s and precipitable water exceeding 1.5 inches), given the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates. These factors combined with an increase in wind profiles just ahead of the frontal wave including sizable clockwise curved low-level hodographs, in the presence of 30-50 kt flow in the 850-500 mb layer support the introduction of higher severe probabilities and a categorical Slight risk area. This environment could become conducive for an isolated supercell or two capable of producing a tornado, severe hail and possibly damaging wind. A small convective system may eventually evolve, which could pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts before activity diminishes in waning boundary layer instability Monday evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Peters.. 09/30/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 The normally (over)bullish 3K NAM says meh. Lots of showers, nil updraft helicity until after dark (elevated). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 35 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: The normally (over)bullish 3K NAM says meh. Lots of showers, nil updraft helicity until after dark (elevated). Noticed that too. It's been consistently meh for several runs now, which is a bit concerning. On the other hand the HRRR looks better, and evolves quite a bit of surface-based convection by late afternoon. The NSSL model does as well. Looks like the 3km has much more of a wedge of warm air around H7 than most other guidance. That provides just enough capping to keep things pretty subdued. Hopefully the 3km is overdoing that little warm layer. There is certainly plenty of surface/moisture convergence to get things going. Also a nice little ripple in the mid-layers should help as well. If we can get the surface-based storms to initiate then it would appear there is a decent severe threat in the area SPC outlined. Best tor threat would likely be along wherever the east/west warm front ends up setting up. Also a nice little triple point in play as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Looking at tonight's CAMs, there is just enough of a signal there to keep some interest, especially in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 00z 3km NAM maintains H7 capping inversion. HRRR and other guidance don't have it. Guess we'll find out which scenario is correct in about 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Of course 11 and 12Z HRRR want to put the only thing resembling a possible warm-sector supercell through Jo Daviess County, the worst chase terrain in northern Illinois (and the only part without a proper grid road network). Even that aside, the CAMs are not particularly encouraging. Looks like a dreary fall afternoon at home unless things change drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 HRRR continues to lean toward soaker tonight but zzzzzzzzzzzzzfest for severe. Calendar still says 2018... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Looks like the best chance for supercell tors will be out near Cedar Rapids, and up towards Dubuque/far northwest tip of IL. After that the best chance will be with any kinks that develop within the line after the storms sort of line up. If I were chasing I'd head towards Vinton or Monticello. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 Hats off to the 3km NAM. It pegged this setup for several days. Warm layer aloft looks like it killed this setup. EDIT: Just noticed DVN launched a balloon at 20z. Clearly shows that H7 warm layer that the 3km NAM consistently shown. Surface cape got a little better after this sounding was made, but still could have used more of that as well. Also, even though we had very nice surface/moisture convergence apparently there wasn't enough forcing for ascent to erode that capping layer. Needed a slightly more potent short wave to get 'er done apparently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Well it's really sucked around here lately, all storm season really. Energy has been focused to far north or we've been in diurnal disfavor. I'm still glass half full for the next 6 weeks or so though. Fantasy land is still trending to some favorable storm tracks. Some good cold pooling in the Great White North helps. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 Shocked no one has posted anything about this yet, but there are TWO reportedly large and extremely dangerous tornadoes currently associated with supercells to the south of Erie, PA. First one near Centerville, PA, second one near Conneautville, PA. One has reportedly struck a nursing home. Not a good situation currently unfolding in an otherwise overlooked slight risk area... EDIT: may fit better in the upstate NY/PA forum. Put it in here because it is Cleveland's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, geddyweather said: Shocked no one has posted anything about this yet, but there are TWO reportedly large and extremely dangerous tornadoes currently associated with supercells to the south of Erie, PA. First one near Centerville, PA, second one near Conneautville, PA. One has reportedly struck a nursing home. Not a good situation currently unfolding in an otherwise overlooked slight risk area... EDIT: may fit better in the upstate NY/PA forum. Put it in here because it is Cleveland's CWA. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 PAC039-021945- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/ Crawford PA- 328 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY... At 328 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Harmonsburg, or 8 miles northwest of Meadville, moving east at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations... Conneautville and Conneaut Lakeshore. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4169 8046 4178 8049 4180 8027 4163 8027 TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 276DEG 32KT 4171 8029 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...1.00IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 I didn't see the couplet, but I don't like the juxtaposition of "...large and extremely dangerous" with "radar indicated rotation." IMO you need ground truth to use wording like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 The models are showing a line of showers and thunderstorms popping up around Madison WI tomorrow at 03z. The severe parameters aren't too bad. If the area can maintain over 1000 J/kg of CAPE after sunset, then maybe we will get some severe reports in Wisconsin or Illinois. It might even get close to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 That is quite a robust shortwave trough passing through the northern portion of the sub forum tomorrow. Storms will be flying with very strong wind fields in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 48 minutes ago, andyhb said: That is quite a robust shortwave trough passing through the northern portion of the sub forum tomorrow. Storms will be flying with very strong wind fields in place. Enhanced Risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Now taking a look at the SPC 17z outlook, maybe areas north of Madison may be the areas of interest (in contrast to what I said before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Solid sounding at 18z near Williamsburg with exactly 0 means for initiation. Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Day 1 has an enhanced risk with a 10% hatched tornado area in northern WI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 ENH risk for N WI on new Day 1... 30 percent for hail and wind... along with 10 percent hatched tornado threat Discussion mentions potential for a strong tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Not sure why SPC expanded the risk areas at 13Z (Madison now solidly in the slight/5% TOR). Latest HRRR not at all bullish on strong UH except in the UP (northwest of the enhanced risk), elevated and close to/after dark. Latest 3K NAM has a clusterfest/possible derecho for NE WI. This should be leaf peeping season up there. Really hard to believe a severe threat today let alone a greater one 300 miles north of here feeling the cool air outside this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 70/40 tor probs on the tornado watch... decent for October standards https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0395.html SEL5 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Upper Michigan Eastern Minnesota Northern and central Wisconsin Lake Michigan Lake Superior * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The air mass will continue to rapidly moisten and destabilize as a warm front continues to spread northward. This will allow for storms to continue to intensify. Very strong winds through a deep-layer will allow for both supercells and bowing segments. Given the very moist environment and strength of the deep-layer/low-level winds, a tornado risk exists, a few of which could be strong/intense. Storms will steadily race east-northeastward into northeast Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 MD now out saying watch incoming for southern WI. Things finally look to be firing off around the Twin Cities. That earlier cluster that produced some hail in NC WI I suspect was elevated. Problem is there's less than an hour of daylight left. We shall see but I suspected SPC's strong wording was once again overblown given the lack of CAM support, and I haven't seen anything yet to shake that suspicion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1519.html LOL, guess this was the other 20 percent. 3 more months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Slight risk area added today for East Central IL/Northern half of IN/NW OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 The slight risk area was expanded SW back to St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2018 Share Posted October 6, 2018 Watch issued for IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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