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2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter
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26 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I was just about to post that survey. It looks like one of the expected funnels actually made it to the ground. lol at the estimated wind speed, barely reaching severe levels.

EDIT: Of course, it happened in Van Wert County, the tornado magnet of Ohio

I think Xenia might have something to say about that.:twister:

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Just now, snowlover2 said:

I think Xenia might have something to say about that.:twister:

You got me curious about that comparison. Of course we all know about Xenia's F 5. Greene County, OH is 415 Square miles and Van Wert County is 410 square miles, so they are comparable in size.

According to the Tornado History Project stats, Van Wert County experienced 33 tornadoes from 1/1/1950-8/24/2016, while Greene County had 17 tornadoes from 2/25/1956-5/26/2015. So Van Wert Co. has averaged exactly 1 tornado every 2 years, while Greene Co. has averaged 1 tornado every 3.48 years. I will have to check the other counties in this part of the subforum when I have more time, but 1 every 2 years  in a county of that size, especially in this part of the country, seems fairly impressive to me.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

You got me curious about that comparison. Of course we all know about Xenia's F 5. Greene County, OH is 415 Square miles and Van Wert County is 410 square miles, so they are comparable in size.

According to the Tornado History Project stats, Van Wert County experienced 33 tornadoes from 1/1/1950-8/24/2016, while Greene County had 17 tornadoes from 2/25/1956-5/26/2015. So Van Wert Co. has averaged exactly 1 tornado every 2 years, while Greene Co. has averaged 1 tornado every 3.48 years. I will have to check the other counties in this part of the subforum when I have more time, but 1 every 2 years  in a county of that size, especially in this part of the country, seems fairly impressive to me.

I don't know how far away you want to look, but I can tell you from memory that Tippecanoe county exceeds that.  It is a somewhat bigger county (about 500 square miles) but it has still had more per area when factoring that in.

McLean county Illinois has had a ton. Much bigger county though.

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It has been waffling back and forth (as has GFS) with instability and EHI values in the upper Midwest. 12Z was a big step in the right direction over 06Z. Seems to all hinge on what antecedent convection does, as per usual in this neck of the woods. Lapse rates are still kind of mediocre, though and in my experience that is more important than absolute CAPE values. Would like to see them be at least 7c/km throughout the column.

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The parameter space on the NAM is still impressive, more so than previous few runs while the nest has a different solution but given its at its end range I would toss that until we get closer. The potential Tuesday is probably the best we've seen across northern Illinois this year, as we should have plenty of flow with the upper low around...but a lot of ways for things to not work out. 

See if that makes it to Twitter

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Afternoon MKX AFD one of the more ominous I have read in several years. It's not often they go into this much detail on tornado threats 3 days out. 18Z 3K another step in right direction, although the large convective complex it portrays is less than ideal for chasing, there are some nice UH streaks in there.

FWIW, forecast surface low track (along the IA/MN border or just north) is reminiscent of previous surface patterns associated with southern Wisconsin tornado events.

Quote

Main question for Tuesday afternoon and evening is amount of
instability that will return after morning convection moves off to
the east.  NAM coming into better agreement with ECMWF/GFS solution
which show sfc low over southeast MN/IA border area moving east
across central/southern WI during the evening.  Low level jet
reamplifies ahead of the surface low and focuses on northern
IL/southern WI.  Forecast soundings from both NAM and GFS show
clouds clearing in the afternoon with a rapid increase in
instability.  SBCAPE values increase to 2-3K j/kg with CWASP values
climbing to around 8 units.  Clearing will allow warm front to surge
northward into southern WI with pooling dewpoints in the mid 60s to
around 70.  0-6km bulk shear increases to around 40 knots by 00Z
with low level shear around 20kts.  LCL around 500m all pointing to
tornado potential in the late aftn/early evening with STP reach 3
near the IL border at 00Z. Slight Risk for severe definitely
appropriate risk level for southern WI at this point, with possible
upgrade in later periods towards the IL border not out of the
question.

 

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13 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Michigan still pitching a shutout with tor reports along with Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and Maine.

You would almost think Michigan didn't have much of a tornado history if you look at the more recent years.  

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You would almost think Michigan didn't have much of a tornado history if you look at the more recent years.  

1950 to 1977 crazy tornado history since then minor events outside of 1997 and 2010 or a couple isolated tors like Dexter. Also a couple of major events around 1900 as well as the first Palm Sunday event in 1920

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50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Apparently everyone else has already thrown in the towel on today?

I have sun here with some thinning apparent on visible satellite.  If today doesn't pan out in/around N IL, I don't think it will be because of the morning activity.

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Also, the WI/IL/IA slight is now for tornadoes ONLY, with 5% (marginal for wind & hail) probs across the board. Don't know if I've ever seen that in a non-tropical case before. Suspect this has to do with the mediocre forecast lapse rates.

Differential heating really apparent in obs with 78 at SQI (Sterling) compared to 71 at Rockford.

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7 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Also, the WI/IL/IA slight is now for tornadoes ONLY, with 5% (marginal for wind & hail) probs across the board. Don't know if I've ever seen that in a non-tropical case before. Suspect this has to do with the mediocre forecast lapse rates.

Differential heating really apparent in obs with 78 at SQI (Sterling) compared to 71 at Rockford.

Setup is kinda sloppy overall (look at the various ongoing areas of rain/storms) so I'm not sure about this one.  I think they made the right move by removing part of the slight risk but even the northern area seems a bit questionable, possibly because of it being 2018 lol.  We'll see.

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