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2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter
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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That thing was crawling apparently (forward speed listed at 5 or 10 mph in the warning)

 

8 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Appears a tornado possibly touched down in SE IN west of Cincy about an hour ago.

Not seeing anything on ILN or in media....any additional information on this?

 

That line that developed back that way popped up out of nowhere on the east side of Cincy too....kinda weird, more about heavy rain but the wind started howling at one point....I looked at the radar an hour earlier and all the storms had dissipated from the evening round...then an hour later...boom! 

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3 hours ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said:

 

Not seeing anything on ILN or in media....any additional information on this?

 

That line that developed back that way popped up out of nowhere on the east side of Cincy too....kinda weird, more about heavy rain but the wind started howling at one point....I looked at the radar an hour earlier and all the storms had dissipated from the evening round...then an hour later...boom! 

It was in IND's territory.  

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There's a marginal area now for E IN and most of Ohio today. Big change from yesterday's forecast for today when it looked to be dry. ILN has a nice write up.

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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 943 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

 

My how things have changed.....

A lot to digest early this morning both observationally and through NWP when diagnosing the potential for convection this afternoon and evening. GOES 16 channels showing rapidly weakening MCS across MI this morning but a very apparent compact MCV left behind over lower MI, churning southeast with storms on its wrn and southeastern flank. MCS outflow has surged south into the ILN CWA on a Richmond IN to Delaware OH line, with accas billowing along it. Area radar VWPs do show stronger mid level flow /30kt/ in proximity to the MCV vs further south over southern OH. The 16.12Z KILN sounding was not unstable /yet/ with modest mid-level lapse rates and weak flow throughout the troposphere, however RAP soundings immediately west of here /Indiana/ show a large pool of instability lies just upstream. Through tonight - while highly performing global models /ECMWF/ have a dry forecast through tonight - the convective-permitting forecast guidance is much less optimistic. There seems to be a growing consensus of 3-4km guidance which initiates convection this afternoon over northern/central Ohio as the wrn flank of the MCV grazes the forecast area with stronger flow/forcing. This will be allowed due to the orientation of the mid-level ridge - such that as the MCV churns southeast this morning - it will turn more decidedly SSE this afternoon in a weakness on the backside of the ridge. Thus, given the large pool of CAPE over Indiana poised and ready to move on weak swly low level flow - rapid destabilization is expected through early afternoon north of the dying outflow. Due to weak forcing overall, hour-to-hour consistency via HRRR/RAP and other convective permitting guidance is poor on location/timing - but the picture is pretty clear that convection will be in the ILN CWA this afternoon and evening - and storm motions will be chaotic owing to a larger instability reservoir to the west, prevailing mid level winds pushing southeast, and outflow which will tend to be on NW-SE axis. Expect cores to move south/southeast - but net motion of clusters will probably /at the end of the day/ show some form of south to southwest net propagation - and this is clearly shown by Corfidi vector changes through the day which end up pointing southwest by this evening. Hazard will be almost-primarily limited to isolated/scattered damaging wind gusts with consolidating cores/outflow. This will be most prevalent along/west of I-71 where numerous downdraft parameters are aligned to showing greater threat. Deep layer flow is generally weak, with some modest enhancement due to the MCV in the 3-4km layer which may help add a bit of organization. But with very weak low level flow, outflows will be quick to race out ahead of convection. Increased rain chances most locations, with minimums in the Scioto Valley and northern Kentucky, and highest in central/west-central Ohio into southeast Indiana. This activity should very rapidly weaken past 7 PM or so with the onset of nocturnal cooling and a decoupling boundary layer and very little feed of theta-e above the inversion. Knocked a few degrees off the highs esp north of I-70 this afternoon. Quiet conditions are expected tonight, though it will be a very warm night, with temps near 70 and dewpoints in the mid 60s.

 

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Big fan of the warm front in MN today. I’d bet it does something. Weak storm relative winds will probably make storms HP, but 0-1km SRH actually exists with this setup because of that boundary. Storms should initiate as supercells and have a few hours to do something before probable upscale growth. 

1F187038-643C-401E-8288-36FA68F4774E.png

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
544 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TORNADO          4 NE POYNETTE           43.44N 89.36W
06/16/2018                   COLUMBIA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF WEAK TORNADO ON THE GROUND FOR APPROX
            3-4 MINS CAUSED TREE DAMAGE NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY B AND DUNNING ROAD.
            REPORT CONFIRMED BY SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURE AND
            DAMAGE REPORT FROM SHERIFF`S OFFICE.
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10 hours ago, hlcater said:

Big fan of the warm front in MN today. I’d bet it does something. Weak storm relative winds will probably make storms HP, but 0-1km SRH actually exists with this setup because of that boundary. Storms should initiate as supercells and have a few hours to do something before probable upscale growth. 

1F187038-643C-401E-8288-36FA68F4774E.png

I forgot what year it is. Nevermind!

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would be nice if tomorrow's front could bring some interesting weather and not just a bunch of 40-50 mph gusts.  Can't rule out severe with such a moist/unstable airmass though shear is on the lighter side.

Wouldn't be super surprised to see the marginal risk get extended into our area tomorrow 

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would be nice if tomorrow's front could bring some interesting weather and not just a bunch of 40-50 mph gusts.  Can't rule out severe with such a moist/unstable airmass though shear is on the lighter side.

Looks like a ROM marginal risk day, unfortunately.

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49 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Some severe storms near Peoria, including a tor warning. 

Yep, may get some isolated svr this evening, but lapse rates are meager in our neck of the woods.  I think the greater threat the next few days will be heavy, possibly flooding rains in our region.

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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

This is more long term, but the Euro has been pretty consistent in showing big cape over the corn belt/Midwest later next week.  The 6000J/kg max value on WxBell is exceeded in some cases.  

It's summer, so it's thermonuclear cap worry time.   But this year has really been strange and non traditional for wx in some respects.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

This is more long term, but the Euro has been pretty consistent in showing big cape over the corn belt/Midwest later next week.  The 6000J/kg max value on WxBell is exceeded in some cases.  

Some of those values were over 8000J/kg if you checked the version 2 CAPE maps.

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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
243 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 /143 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/

...DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 6/22/18 TORNADO EVENT...

The combination of video and collaboration with a Van Wert County
Emergency Management storm survey indicates an EF-0 tornado occurred
Friday evening June 22nd, 2018 just to the southeast of Van Wert, OH.

.TORNADO NEAR VAN WERT OH...

Rating:                 EF-0
Estimated peak wind:    55-60 mph
Path length /Statute/:  1.0 miles
Path width /Maximum/:   180 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start date:             6/22/18
Start time:             6:51 PM EDT
Start location:         5 miles SSE of Van Wert, OH
Start Lat/Lon:          40.7955/-84.5452

End date:               6/22/18
End time:               6:55 PM EDT
End location:           4 miles SSE of Van Wert, OH
End_lat/lon:            40.8056/-84.5601


SUMMARY: The tornado began in a cornfield just to the southeast
of the intersection of Mendon and Wren-Landeck Roads. Some shingle
damage and a few downed large branches were noted at a residence along
the path of the tornado as it tracked northwest. The tornado
continued into another cornfield before dissipating in a tree line.
Damage to a single tree was noted in the front of this tree line at
the end of the tornado path.

NOTE:
The information in this statement is PRELIMINARY and subject to
change pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.
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I was just about to post that survey. It looks like one of the expected funnels actually made it to the ground. lol at the estimated wind speed, barely reaching severe levels.

EDIT: Of course, it happened in Van Wert County, the tornado magnet of Ohio

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5 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

The 18z NAM is interesting and fairly impressive from DVN-ORD on Tuesday 

Indeed.  Looks like it could be something worth watching (all the more considering how this year has gone so far) with amount of recovery and placement yet to be determined.

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