Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 hours ago, hlcater said:

Looks like the next several days are going to be quite conducive to MCSs across the sub. Some people don't like MCSs, but I for one will never turn them down. (unless its at 9 AM washing out severe weather, thats always fun.) Maybe a shot at something early on in the day Saturday and especially Sunday out here. However, because it's 2018, any formidable speed shear just doesn't exist, so neither day looks like anything more than a mesoscale day.

Of course there'll be squalls now. I'm going up north on vacation for a week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPC has upgraded eastern Iowa to "Enhanced" severe chance tonight.  The CAMs are consistently showing the MCV up in Minnesota refiring late this evening and diving southeast across eastern Iowa, with wind damage potential I'm sure.  This may be my best chance of a good storm all spring.

DfQ3YhAVMAEQkQA.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New day 2 remains the same but they mention higher probs likely needed for IL/IN in later outlooks.

Quote

...Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley... Moderate surface-based instability will likely develop in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary front given a very moist (upper 60s dew points) low-level air mass. Thunderstorm coverage will depend on mesoscale features, particularly the locations of convectively-enhanced upper-level disturbances embedded within modest west-northwest mid-level flow, and residual outflow boundaries. Isolated damaging winds will be the primary severe risk, with some risk for severe hail with the strongest storms. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be warranted across portions of IL/IN, where a more prominent MCV should be located Sunday afternoon. Given uncertainties regarding the evolution of Day 1 thunderstorms Saturday night, will retain Marginal categorical risk with this outlook.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

tornado watch likely to be issued near or north of Cedar Rapids IA

Quote

 Mesoscale Discussion 0682
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018

   Areas affected...Far southern MN...North-central/northeast IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 091846Z - 092045Z

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There's definitely a residual boundary this TOR warned cell is about to cross. Briefly though, as it's more N/S than E/W based on visible satellite. 

Subtle, but 91/67 at IFA, and 85/70 ALO

New cell popping just east of Aredale kind of along that same convergence zone.  That little convergence line snakes all the way towards Anamosa, and looks to be lifting slowly northward.  Wonder if we'll see more sups develop along that as the other storms build in from the northwest.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

New cell popping just east of Aredale kind of along that same convergence zone.  That little convergence line snakes all the way towards Anamosa, and looks to be lifting slowly northward.  Wonder if we'll see more sups develop along that as the other storms build in from the northwest.  

That slightly cooler/slight more moist air is going to help keep LCLs lower. We can already see the wind is having no issue reaching the ground, with several 70+ reports coming in.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Warning for here, gonna be fun.

There is some broad rotation. IWX is getting reports of a possible tornado touchdown south of Angola in Stueben Co. EMA is reporting damage in that area.They are getting a survey team together.

EDIT: When I say they, I mean IWX

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

There is some broad rotation. IWX is getting reports of a possible tornado touchdown south of Angola in Stueben Co. EMA is reporting damage in that area.They are getting a survey team together.

EDIT: When I say they, I mean IWX

 

 

 

Both the CC and even base res show a rain wrapped tornado IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some new cells starting to pop north of Grinnell down towards the better instability.  Nice ML LR plume nosing into the southern half of Iowa.  The southwesterly LLJ should keep things blowing up on the west side of the complex for much of the night.  Parts of eastern Iowa could really get dumped on tonight.  The LR plume and LLJ should keep the strongest storms right about where SPC has the enhanced placed IMO.  Waterloo/CR/Muscatine would be my favored area for the heaviest rains tonight.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...