Hoosier Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 There were a couple tornado reports in IL yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 12 hours ago, hlcater said: NAM/GFS 12z runs look nice along the warm front on Saturday, but the position and to a degree, the orientation of this boundary is still up in the air. Newer runs are trying to push it back til Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spring 2018 Is The Worst Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 12 hours ago, hlcater said: NAM/GFS 12z runs look nice along the warm front on Saturday, but the position and to a degree, the orientation of this boundary is still up in the air. each new model run keeps shoving the boundary farther south thanks to relentless blocking to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 I have some optimism for Sunday. Nice EML plume on the models and plenty of moisture leading to potentially strong instability, and perhaps just enough shear/low level turning near the warm front from IN into OH for supercells. It looks like a shortwave might glance the region late in the day and allow stuff to develop. Not a slam dunk setup but hey it’s getting desperate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 14 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Newer runs are trying to push it back til Monday umm no? That's a separate event. I'm talking west for IA and MO. The Sunday event and maybe monday?(idk it looks like garbage to me) are different setups on different days that just happen to involve the same boundary. The NAM/GFS have backed off a bit for Saturday, but still looks okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Some of the soundings for sunday along the warm front are encouraging. Mid level flow is a little weaker than ideal but 40-45 kts would get the job done. Excellent turning from 0-1 with good speed shear. It looks chasable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisBray Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 I'm not going to cherry pick NAM soundings, but with a little help this could be a nice event. Good Cape/dews and sufficient shear. Kinda weak surface low, hopefully winds back more in the warm sector. Will definitely be out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Day 3 has a marginal area from parts of MO/IA to W OH. Quote Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may develop across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley region Sunday. ...Midwest/OH Valley... Central Plains short-wave trough is expected to induce a considerable amount of convection across portions of the central Plains/Lower MO Valley late Saturday. Remnants of this activity should propagate into IA/northern MO by the start of the day3 period. While it's not entirely clear how much influence this activity will have on the boundary layer, in all likelihood one or more surface boundaries should serve as the focus for renewed development by early afternoon. Latest thinking is multiple clusters/MCS should be ongoing at the start of the period along nose of a pronounced LLJ. Downstream boundary-layer heating will contribute to destabilization that is expected to aid robust thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While mid-level heights may be somewhat ridgy, aforementioned convective influences should encourage potentially strong thunderstorm development. Hail/wind are the primary threats with convection that spreads toward the OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 1 hour ago, largetornado said: Some of the soundings for sunday along the warm front are encouraging. Mid level flow is a little weaker than ideal but 40-45 kts would get the job done. Excellent turning from 0-1 with good speed shear. It looks chasable to me. I think that is contaminated. If you look at reflectivity(or MSLP) on the 12z NAM, you'll see that the NAM has a pretty significant looking MCS barreling down the warm front at 00z. All the soundings pulled ahead of this MCS(adjacent counties) are likely influenced by the convectively induced area of low pressure associated with the complex. This locally enhances wind profiles in the inflow region immediately in front of the MCS. The sounding I included is east of Champaign, and is probably more representative of the warm frontal environment on the NAM, which is still sufficient if you ask me. EDIT: that large area of subsidence from 850-500mb may also key into this area being an inflow region, however I am not sure on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 I'll take Slight Risk for $400, maybe even ENH for say $200. Hoosier Alley Sunday forecasts have trended slightly better for chasing/enthusiast concerns. The 12Z NAM high-res radar simulation is notable at 60 hours, but in 2018 too good to be true. Still, evidence supports giving Sunday a chance. Surface looks to have adequate 68+ dewpoints, in contrast to the Plains struggling to 65 and mixing out to 60. Upstream over the South is humid, along with soundings up to 850 mb. Forecast soundings for ILX/IND look to hold moisture for Sunday. 850 mb/LLJ is a little veered, but not enough to kill the deal in Hoosier Alley. 925 mb may be less veered. An outflow boundary would locally enhance helicity enough to overcome the LLJ orientation. 700 mb looks just right temps. GFS is backing of all the midday rain, more in line with ECMWF and its parallel. 500/200 mb forecasts remain modest shear, plenty enough for May. However that forecast has to hold up. I am looking for any outflow boundary to stay north of I-70 out of the jungle, preferably north of I-74. Upper jet needs to hang in there. LLJ I'd like slightly stronger and/or less veered. If things can line up, Sunday could offer a severe weather surprise for Hoosier Alley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 I still think Sunday has potential for some supercells and perhaps a couple of tornadoes along the wf in IL and IN, but am less enthused for OH and probably can’t get as far west as I’d need to on Sunday. Parameter space supports an eventual slight risk at least once the finer details start sorting out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 18, 2018 Share Posted May 18, 2018 Would be nice to have stronger flow around 300 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 New day 2 now has a slight risk area from C MO to SW OH. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms may develop across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley region Sunday. Additional strong storms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley Vicinity... A somewhat complex forecast scenario is expected for Sunday, mainly due to possible impacts from overnight convection in the Day 1 period and any ongoing storms Sunday morning. That being said, ample opportunity for strong to severe storms will exist along a myriad of surface boundaries. A cold front will be positioned along the MO/KS border early in the afternoon with a weak surface low over northwest MO. The front will then extend west to east across northern MO into central IL/IN/OH. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, will result in strong destabilization across portions of the Mid-MS and lower OH Valleys. Midlevel lapse rates, while not impressive, will be adequate when coupled with strong instability for maintaining stronger updrafts. 0-6km shear will be generally weak across the region in the absence of stronger deep layer forcing for ascent. However, portions of the region will be on the southern fringes of narrow corridor of stronger bulk shear located over the Great Lakes and values ranging from around 25-35 kt appear reasonable at this time. All of this together should support storms capable of severe hail. Furthermore, steep low level lapse rates and weak low level flow likely will favor outflow dominant convection. As such, damaging winds will be possible with some potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing segments should stronger cold pools become established. ...Portions of Central Texas... Severe potential across central TX also is somewhat uncertain due to expected ongoing convection moving south/southeast toward the region at the beginning of the period. The timing of this convection and position of any related outflow boundary will impact where strong to possibly severe storms may develop during the afternoon. Warm, moist advection ahead of the boundary should result in scattered storm development. Deep layer shear will remain weak, but modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and moderate instability will be adequate for at least brief intense updrafts capable of hail. Some stronger wind gusts also will be possible as storms struggle to maintain intensity/organization. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Leitman.. 05/19/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 Haven’t been around in a while, but it feels like I haven’t missed a whole lot around OH lately. Hoping to get some rumbles today at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 Pretty benign looking pattern for meaningful severe for the foreseeable future. Hopefully June makes up for a very meh May. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 57 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Pretty benign looking pattern for meaningful severe for the foreseeable future. Hopefully June makes up for a very meh May. It has been an incredibly boring storm season in my yard. Some locations have had good storms, but there has been nothing widespread, leaving some of us with very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: It has been an incredibly boring storm season in my yard. Some locations have had good storms, but there has been nothing widespread, leaving some of us with very little. It's been a very strange stretch of weather from March through now. Spring snows, and now this weird stagnant/constipated split flow BS. Hopefully June makes up for it by featuring May flow over June instability. That could be fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 New day 2 introduces a slight risk for C IN/ W OH. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley as well as the southern Rockies Monday. ...Synopsis... Omega blocking pattern will persist Monday with an upper low closing off over CA and NV. Farther downstream a shortwave trough will crest the mean ridge position over the Plains and mid MS Valley region, and this feature will continue east through the OH Valley and Great Lakes. At the start of the period a quasi-stationary or warm front is forecast to extend from the Middle Atlantic westward to a weak surface low over IL. A cold front should extend southwest from the low through the lower MS Valley and central TX. ...Ohio Valley region... Elevated showers and storms may be ongoing over the northern portion of the OH Valley into the Great Lakes within zone of warm advection and isentropic lift north of the warm front. South of this boundary clouds should erode with diabatic heating and a moist surface layer (upper 60s F dewpoints) resulting in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. Weak convective inhibition should promote the development of storms along and in advance of the weak cold front as the boundary layer destabilizes. A belt of stronger (30-40 kt from 700-500 mb) winds aloft will overlap the northern portion of the warm sector, but weak effective bulk shear an unidirectional winds will promote mostly multicell storm modes including bowing segments. An exception will be if enough destabilization can occur along warm front where backed low-level winds may augment low-level hodograph size and contribute to sufficient effective bulk shear for marginal supercell structures. Primary threat is expected to be strong to damaging wind gusts during the afternoon into the early evening, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...Southern Rockies through Southern High Plains... Modest southwesterly winds aloft will become established over the higher terrain as upper low settles over southern CA into western AZ. Southeasterly low-level winds will result in low to mid 50s F dewpoints advecting through the High Plains beneath steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to a corridor of moderate instability with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will likely develop over the higher terrain during the afternoon and subsequently spread east into the High Plains. Multicell storm modes should be the dominant storm type, with some storms possibly evolving into clusters/lines as cold pools congeal. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates with inverted-V boundary layers will promote a risk for isolated downburst winds, but hail will also accompany the stronger storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 05/20/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 20, 2018 Share Posted May 20, 2018 15 hours ago, cyclone77 said: It's been a very strange stretch of weather from March through now. Spring snows, and now this weird stagnant/constipated split flow BS. Hopefully June makes up for it by featuring May flow over June instability. That could be fun. This. We need some 990mb systems to augment that low level jet which we have had a dearth of this spring here in the Midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Would love to have something sort of worth chasing in OH/IN/perhaps IL before I move to NJ in early July. Pattern looks horrible through at least the rest of May. Blah. Almost getting a 2012 vibe to the pattern with a warm but very quiet look coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 This season as a whole is sorta reminiscent of some of those paltry 1980s years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: This season as a whole is sorta reminiscent of some of those paltry 1980s years. I found this graph/chart interesting. It is only active tornado days in Kansas, but with there seems to be a clear oscillation in activity in the limited data set we have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 2 hours ago, OHweather said: Would love to have something sort of worth chasing in OH/IN/perhaps IL before I move to NJ in early July. Pattern looks horrible through at least the rest of May. Blah. Almost getting a 2012 vibe to the pattern with a warm but very quiet look coming up. Yes, this stubborn pattern has got to go. If we can get some decent shear tomorrow maybe we can get something to sneak in before you leave! Good luck to you. Hope you'll still post your thoughts around here from time to time. Always enjoyed your insight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 EF0 confirmed from last night just south of Wilmington OH. Quote US National Weather Service Wilmington OH 19 mins · NWS storm survey team in Brown County determined that an EF0 tornado touched down north of Mount Orab and was on the ground for approximately one mile. More specific details will follow later today when the team returns and prepares their more detailed report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 On 5/21/2018 at 12:32 AM, Jackstraw said: Yes, this stubborn pattern has got to go. If we can get some decent shear tomorrow maybe we can get something to sneak in before you leave! Good luck to you. Hope you'll still post your thoughts around here from time to time. Always enjoyed your insight! This spring for severe weather sucks. Crappy trough in central and east throughout March and much of April straight to a huge pattern flip with jet stream way north. Similar to may 2012 for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 Most of Ohio in a slight risk now for today. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast mainly this afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Ohio Valley, as well as over portions of the High Plains and north-central Rockies. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Visible imagery indicates thinning cloud cover over Indiana and much of Ohio which will permit stronger diabatic heating and air mass destabilization to occur this afternoon, in advance of a southeastward moving cold front located from extreme northwest Ohio into southwest Indiana. The decrease in cloud cover will spread into western Pennsylvania with time and contribute to a gradual increase in heating. MLCAPE is expected to reach 1000-1500 J/kg, with greater instability expected with westward extent. Short bands of mainly shallow convection are developing along/ahead of the front from northwest Ohio into east central Indiana. Updrafts within this activity are expected to strengthen with several bands of northeast-southwest oriented thunderstorms forming by early-mid afternoon. The storms will be located on the southern edge of stronger westerly winds aloft, including the right entrance region of an upper level jet, resulting in deep layer shear of 30-40 kt that will enhance storm organization and intensity. Stronger cells will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts with isolated hail also possible mainly with any storms that are able to develop transient updraft rotation. The activity will spread eastward and southeastward through the evening hours before storms gradually weaken as boundary layer cooling and low-level stabilization occurs. ...Mid-Atlantic Region... More extensive cloud cover over Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia with fewer cloud to the south is creating a differential heating zone along the southern edge of the thicker clouds. Stronger heating to the south will enhance destabilization in advance of storms beginning to develop over southern West Virginia at this time. VAD winds at RLX and LWX exhibit westerly winds of 30-40 kt above 4 km which will provide sufficient shear to support organized multi-cell storms and possibly an isolated supercell or two. Storms are expected to develop eastward this afternoon with potential for localized damaging wind gusts although isolated hail will also be possible with stronger storms. ...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas... Low-level moisture persists as far west as the upper Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico in the wake of widespread storms on Monday. A few strong storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening, initially over the mountains of central New Mexico, with the activity spreading eastward with time. Other storms will develop over southwest Texas as well. The region is on the edge of stronger southwest winds aloft associated with the upper low that is beginning to lift northeastward over the southern Great Basin. A few stronger cells capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts will be possible. ......North-central Rockies to middle Missouri Valley... The Great Basin/southwest states-central upper low is beginning to move northeastward, with a lead shortwave trough currently lifting across northern Arizona expected to overspread the central Rockies/Wyoming through the afternoon into tonight. Orographic lift, increasing dynamic forcing for ascent coupled with adequate moisture will allow for the development and intensification of storms this afternoon initially across parts of Utah/western Colorado into interior Wyoming where locally severe storms will be possible. As forcing for ascent spreads northeastward by late afternoon, a somewhat more moist and unstable environment across central/eastern Wyoming could allow for more organized/sustained storm modes with hail/severe wind gusts possible as storms spread east-northeastward. Over the Plains, a nocturnally increasing low-level jet may help sustain storms into South Dakota and western/northern Nebraska this evening, in addition to an increase in storms farther east toward the Missouri River late in the evening/overnight with some hail possible. ..Weiss/Wendt/Elliott.. 05/22/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 Watch possible. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018 Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Far Northwest Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221657Z - 221930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop this afternoon from eastern Indiana east-northeastward across Ohio into far northwest Pennsylvania. Wind damage and isolated large hail are expected to be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will need to be considered as storms increase in coverage and intensity. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front located from northwest Ohio southwestward into west-central Indiana. Surface dewpoints along and just ahead of the front are in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Surface temperatures are now in the 75 to 80 F range and the RAP is analyzing a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/k across eastern Indiana and western Ohio. Thunderstorms have developed over the last hour along the front near the strongest instability. Thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage as low-level convergence increases along the front and as a shortwave trough moves from west to east across the region. In addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate deep-layer shear. For example, the Cleveland VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 kt with unidirectional winds from the west-southwest. This wind profile should support a potential for damaging wind gusts with multicells especially as low-level lapse rates steepen over the next few hours. Cells that have rotation may also be capable of producing isolated large hail. ..Broyles/Weiss.. 05/22/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 T-storm watch until 9pm for SE IN/extreme N KY/most of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: T-storm watch until 9pm for SE IN/extreme N KY/most of Ohio. I hope you guys score. We have had four days of slight risk or better in 2018 in NE IN and have nothing to show for it. Three out of the four times, I questioned SPC for including our area when guidance didn't look great to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: I hope you guys score. We have had four days of slight risk or better in 2018 in NE IN and have nothing to show for it. Three out of the four times, I questioned SPC for including our area when guidance didn't look great to begin with. This has become increasingly frustrating from a media perspective. I've stopped using the terms "marginal," "slight," etc altogether because they don't mean much to a viewer to begin with, especially when we have numerous slight days with, as you said, nothing to show for it. Looks like the next 7 days at least will be zzzzz. What an odd and eerily quiet spring it has been! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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