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Rtd208

March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah Don the pros are still convinced too, but a lot of us are not liking this so far. What was the progged start time? NWS said don't go out after 7 am on one update, so that's already been blown.  When she would we start to see an actual snowstorm out of this?

Can you STOP? It's so freaking annoying, every time.

Do you know how to look at a radar? Or is that beyond your skill set?

  • Haha 2

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Current Conditions Station reported 2 seconds ago

35.6 °F
Feels Like 35.6 °F
 

2.0

mph
Wind from E
Gusts 10.0 mph
Dew Point:
34 °F
Humidity:
96%
Precip Rate:
0.05 in/hr
Precip Accum:
0.36 in
Pressure:
29.7 in
UV:
2
 
Solar:
--
Soil Moisture:
--
Soil Temp:
--
Leaf Wetness:
--

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Moderate rain Centereach, but as soon as intensity picks up, big fat flakes mix in. Definitely going to be a battleground here.. counting on strong dynamics to help out. 

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Seeing a lot of flakes 25 stories above the ground here in Midtown, which corresponds with the heavier banding/lifting entering the City. To those who are worried, the RGEM, 12k and 3k NAM, and HRRR (which all blast us) have no accumulation of any significance before 1 pm, when the real stuff starts rolling in. After that we get pounded for 6 hours.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Wow at everyone, I warned of a lul yesterday before the coastal gets up here.

Yes and it was well advertised by the models, others on here and the media.....

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2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes and it was well advertised by the models, others on here and the media.....

This.

Much like March, it's going to come in like a lion around noon.

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that's true - and not the first time there was a forecasting mistake in a storm - this whole setup with the lack of truly cold air and depending on dynamics makes forecasting really difficult - anyones guess whats going to actually happen the rest of the way
This is not depending on dynamics exclusively.. That was last storm. There is cold air around, the only issue with this storm is track. Too close to a lp system and the track can flood you with warm air before things cool back off because the storm develops enough to crash heights closer to the storm. That's not dynamic dependent cold air, that's simply maturing of a lp system.

As far as closing early, having studied (and finishing up my masters in it currently) emergency management, you have to understand that everything is a risk based scenario. The tri state area is right in the cusp of many different types of sensible weather, and more importantly, forecast models are painting a very convective atmosphere later. Combine that with the likelihood that we are going to see heavy precipitation (snow) and you have the issue having to think about safety and the economy of said safety. What this means is that if a community operates as normal and then blizzard like conditions set in, people become endangered. They then decide to drive to get home and situations like what happened in Atlanta a couple of years back (among other horror stories - the inception of snow/ice that paralyzed the city) takes place. Now, emergency services are utilized. Then you have DOE who has to find a way to clear roads. Families are stranded. Children are separated from their parents. Etc. Etc. At the end of the day this all costs money. Businesses are impacted for days instead of just the day of. Persons sue. Emergency services are over utilized are stretched. Insurance is overused because of incidents that didn't need to happen. Etc etc. There is a reason emergency managers and officials make decisions to close.

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11 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes and it was well advertised by the models, others on here and the media.....

I mean I’ve got about a slushy 1.5” so far on non paved surfaces. Once that CCB cranks things will go down hill fast.

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30 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

All rain in Hillsborough NJ. Trying not to worry. 

Interesting. I’m just to your north in Bridgewater and never went to all rain. The most was graupel with a little rain mixed in.

Only a dusting so far but all snow now. Temp is 34F. 

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1 minute ago, RutgersWx92 said:

Interesting. I’m just to your north in Bridgewater and never went to all rain. The most was graupel with a little rain mixed in.

Only a dusting so far but all snow now. Temp is 34F. 

Crazy difference with just a little elevation.  Nearly 3.5" down.

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20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Wow at everyone, I warned of a lul yesterday before the coastal gets up here.

Posted in the other thread - this is eerily reminiscent (if the models are correct and convection and a strong CCB emerge) of 12/9/05 in Boston. Front end dump in the early morning hours, followed by hours of drizzle in the mid-30s. Then after lunch... thunder... wind-driven sleet and 3 hours of TSSN ++... ships dropping anchor in Boston Harbor, hurricane force gusts out on the Cape. Was truly a "shelter in place" situation. Not saying that happens here, but I recall the hours of "where's the storm?" that preceded it. https://www.flickr.com/photos/blizzardgeek/albums/1544941

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20 minutes ago, wxman said:

Really?  Snowing like crazy here.  All snow and 3" down with heavy snow continuing.  

What a difference elevation makes. I am off Amwell just west of 206. Maybe 0.5”. Back to rain now in the lighter bands. 

FFCC9021-42DB-4D39-B5B0-E232E76B55BA.jpeg

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1 minute ago, hooralph said:

Posted in the other thread - this is eerily reminiscent (if the models are correct and convection and a strong CCB emerge) of 12/9/05 in Boston. Front end dump in the early morning hours, followed by hours of drizzle in the mid-30s. Then after lunch... thunder... wind-driven sleet and 3 hours of TSSN ++... ships dropping anchor in Boston Harbor, hurricane force gusts out on the Cape. Was truly a "shelter in place" situation. Not saying that happens here, but I recall the hours of "where's the storm?" that preceded it. https://www.flickr.com/photos/blizzardgeek/albums/1544941

how much snow fell??

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1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

how much snow fell??

it was 8-10" across Metro Boston, some 12" + lollis if I recall. But again, that fell in like 3 hours.

Boston Globe abstract:

Quote

 

"The energetic, fast-moving storm dropped more than a foot of snow in some places, with Northern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire bearing the brunt of the snowfall, meteorologists said. Snow in those areas fell at a rate of 5 inches per hour at some points. Littleton, Mass., recorded more than 15 inches of snowfall, while Bennington, N.H., got nearly 1 1/2 feet. Cambridge reported 8 inches and Winthrop had recorded 5 inches as of late yesterday afternoon.

In perhaps the most dramatic storm-related incident, lightning hit Comair Flight 5437, a Canada Air regional flight traveling from Baltimore to Boston, just before it touched down at Logan Airport shortly after 2 p.m., according to Kate Moser, a Comair spokes woman. Federal Aviation Administration officials said the strike blew off the tip of the airplane's left wing, but Moser said the plane landed safely with three crew members and 35 passengers aboard, most bound for Boston.

School superintendents in parts of Eastern Massachusetts were in a quandary by midday yesterday. The storm had started with fluffy snow in the morning, prompting communities such as Boston, Braintree, Wayland, and Waltham to open school for the day. But when the storm suddenly picked up and superintendents decided to release students early, buses confronted slippery roads and rapidly mounting snow."

 

 

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