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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

For him, yes 

Enough members still give D.C. Snow to not dismiss. Today was a good run of the gefs and EPS. Quite a few members get a wave under us in the long range. Of course we both know local climo and who has an advantage but it's not totally over for 95. I don't feel bad about my advantage. I work for it. I commute to Baltimore every day. 

Btw didn't you commute to Hagerstown at one point for like a year?  If you don't mind me asking was that partially snow related and if so why not simply go to Damascus of Mt Airy which get as much or almost as much but are way closer?  I'm in no way picking on anyone over moving for snow I did. I specifically picked this spot for snow and cool in summer and for the beauty but it was more the snow!

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Enough members still give D.C. Snow to not dismiss. Today was a good run of the gefs and EPS. Quite a few members get a wave under us in the long range. Of course we both know local climo and who has an advantage but it's not totally over for 95. I don't feel bad about my advantage. I work for it. I commute to Baltimore every day. 

Btw didn't you commute to Hagerstown at one point for like a year?  If you don't mind me asking was that partially snow related and if so why not simply go to Damascus of Mt Airy which get as much or almost as much but are way closer?  I'm in no way picking on anyone over moving for snow I did. I specifically picked this spot for snow and cool in summer and for the beauty but it was more the snow!

That’s a pretty serious commute.  At this point I have a 15 minute commute and I’m not willing to budge on that, but I figure when I’m older and my kid(s) are gone I’ll move to the mountains somewhere where there is a lot of snow. 

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

That’s a pretty serious commute.  At this point I have a 15 minute commute and I’m not willing to budge on that, but I figure when I’m older and my kid(s) are gone I’ll move to the mountains somewhere where there is a lot of snow. 

I commuted from Pine Grove PA to Baltimore for a whole year once. Now that was crazy. 125 miles each way. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I commuted from Pine Grove PA to Baltimore for a whole year once. Now that was crazy. 125 miles each way. 

Now I understand why you get nervous about being fringed.  You pay your dues for the snow you get..you expect some payoff.  125 miles each way however is nearly insane even for better snow climo.  Still, I am impressed by your commitment.  

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Now I understand why you get nervous about being fringed.  You pay your dues for the snow you get..you expect some payoff.  125 miles each way however is nearly insane even for better snow climo.  Still, I am impressed by your commitment.  

That one was for love not snow lol. But it was crazy never the less. 

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That one was for love not snow lol. But it was crazy never the less. 

The only two things worth suffering for..snow first of course.  I have passed up heading “upstairs” to wait for first flakes.  Insanity!

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Enough members still give D.C. Snow to not dismiss. Today was a good run of the gefs and EPS. Quite a few members get a wave under us in the long range. Of course we both know local climo and who has an advantage but it's not totally over for 95. I don't feel bad about my advantage. I work for it. I commute to Baltimore every day. 

Btw didn't you commute to Hagerstown at one point for like a year?  If you don't mind me asking was that partially snow related and if so why not simply go to Damascus of Mt Airy which get as much or almost as much but are way closer?  I'm in no way picking on anyone over moving for snow I did. I specifically picked this spot for snow and cool in summer and for the beauty but it was more the snow!

I mean, I'm sorta still interested, but less so than yesterday.   Not sure what I was thinking.  If I were you, I'd seriously be kinda pumped...still far out tho

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4 hours ago, BristowWx said:

The only two things worth suffering for..snow first of course.  I have passed up heading “upstairs” to wait for first flakes.  Insanity!

I love snow, but pass up making love? No effin way! Hey, make her real happy, miss some snow, you can always chase snow later, head west to the Apps.

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12 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

06z GFS looks very good for next saturday. For Southern VA...

Meanwhile the Euro has temps in the 50s with showers next Saturday. An organized low then tracks into the GLs early the following week with heavy snow for the upper midwest and more rain showers for the MA. Which is more plausible lol?

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Meanwhile the Euro has temps in the 50s with showers next Saturday. An organized low then tracks into the GLs early the following week with heavy snow for the upper midwest and more rain showers for the MA. Which is more plausible lol?
Snowstorm missing us to the south then hooking around us to hit Boston
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28 minutes ago, Jandurin said:
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Meanwhile the Euro has temps in the 50s with showers next Saturday. An organized low then tracks into the GLs early the following week with heavy snow for the upper midwest and more rain showers for the MA. Which is more plausible lol?

Snowstorm missing us to the south then hooking around us to hit Boston

Anything is possible of course, but on April 7-8, I think its a good bet we can skip the snowstorm missing to the south bit. The part about Boston getting nuked- yeah that will probably happen in this pattern.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Anything is possible of course, but on April 7-8, I think its a good bet we can skip the snowstorm missing to the south bit. The part about Boston getting nuked- yeah that will probably happen in this pattern.

The GFS is right where we want it for next weekend....lol

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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

The GFS is right where we want it for next weekend....lol

Yeah I guess lol.

If it were going to snow in April in the lowlands of the southern MA, I dont believe for a second it would go down the way the GFS is depicting it. Relatively weak wave riding an Arctic boundary? I kinda doubt it.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I guess lol.

If it were going to snow in April in the lowlands of the southern MA, I dont believe for a second it would go down the way the GFS is depicting it. Relatively weak wave riding an Arctic boundary? I kinda doubt it.

Yes I agree.  You would think it would be some wound up bomb off the coast in a perfect spot and at night time. Man that is some cold air for April though coming down at the end of the week.

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28 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Yes I agree.  You would think it would be some wound up bomb off the coast in a perfect spot and at night time. Man that is some cold air for April though coming down at the end of the week.

I have one more round in me.  One more tracking event.  That’s all I’ll get this season anyway but regardless I want this to hit.  And it’s my birthday weekend.  Would be quite the gift. Just 1 inch.   

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What's incredible to me is looking at 6z Gefs members there are like 8 - 10 that target southern Va to as far south as South Carolina for the weekend :lmao:

Thats typical with the GEFS members for whatever reason. The herd mentality. A couple runs from now when the op has a "new" solution for next weekend, there likely wont be any members with snow down south.

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

No doubt the herd mentality is a factor in the solutions ( tropical season was proof of that) but herd or no herd the model " thinks " it could snow down there and actually it's been showing that possibility for several runs ..it's just this latest ensemble run that really added more hits. I personally believe the big hits down there are extreme long shots but reading thru my Ludlum books ..the south has gotten accumulating snow in April several times in the last couple hundred years and it will happen again. 

Well if it is to happen like that this projected set up would be the one.  It doesn’t have to trend north.  It could trend further south although there has to be a point where too far south and it just morphs into cold rain.  Accumulating snow in NC and SC seems like a tough slog in April outside the high elevations.  

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13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

No doubt the herd mentality is a factor in the solutions ( tropical season was proof of that) but herd or no herd the model " thinks " it could snow down there and actually it's been showing that possibility for several runs ..it's just this latest ensemble run that really added more hits. I personally believe the big hits down there are extreme long shots but reading thru my Ludlum books ..the south has gotten accumulating snow in April several times in the last couple hundred years and it will happen again. 

 

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Well if it is to happen like that this projected set up would be the one.  It doesn’t have to trend north.  It could trend further south although there has to be a point where too far south and it just morphs into cold rain.  Accumulating snow in NC and SC seems like a tough slog in April outside the high elevations.  

Seasonal trend says it will probably come north but who knows. 

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