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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Its super unimpressive. Lets be real here.

I see purples not too far south though!

Model error at range. We know this. It will rain in those places in April 99% of the time.. Hell, if it shifts north it will probably rain most places around here too.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Oh, I was talking about the first thing on Monday.   Friday thing is interesting...but...April

Yeah late week has more potential. The Monday deal is weak af. And yes, its April. The set up is a pretty good one other than that small detail.

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Model error at range. We know this. It will rain in those places in April 99% of the time.. Hell, if it shifts north it will probably rain most places around here too.
That 850 is really cold. It's all about timing and rates in April but later in the week looks interesting
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Model error at range. We know this. It will rain in those places in April 99% of the time.. Hell, if it shifts north it will probably rain most places around here too.

That 850 is really cold. It's all about timing and rates in April but later in the week looks interesting

It's April.  We aren't New England.  

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:
11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Model error at range. We know this. It will rain in those places in April 99% of the time.. Hell, if it shifts north it will probably rain most places around here too.

That 850 is really cold. It's all about timing and rates in April but later in the week looks interesting

I have posted ITT that I do like the h5 look for late week. Its not impossible..

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41 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z GFS is in... lol

5a49ef2682ceb8b440ef9471989b4e03.jpg

f153f388d0d64e97e1d839d1f73a214d.jpg

If we miss to the south twice in April I may need to be double reaped though.

Frankly, it's been the South's year (farther south and east than here- (we have 5 inches total this year- all from the last event)). Proud to be a part of the DC snow-hole, I tell ya what

 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

April 3,1915 dumped a foot at 0 elevation at the beaches ..so its certainly possible . :D just saying 

Sure it is possible, just not likely lol. But hey, that h5 look.. Not too shabby. Literally everything would have to break right for a storm that could produce several inches of snow, somewhere outside of the western highlands. Time of day would obviously be a key factor.

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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This sure as heck is not a bad h5 look leading up to a potential event. Impressive actually given we are in Spring. Baseball season and stuff. Again it must be stated- too bad we are looking at the first week of April with this pattern.

eps_z500a_noram_29.thumb.png.b34a01c80ff682f32b8e9612ab9b704c.png

 

Higher terrain stands a damn good chance. We all might have to go to Mountain Geek's and Clueless's 'hoods, to dig em out.

Who's bringin' the stout?

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1 hour ago, Jebman said:

Higher terrain stands a damn good chance. We all might have to go to Mountain Geek's and Clueless's 'hoods, to dig em out.

Who's bringin' the stout?

We're close to the Appalachian Trail.....so just toss your keg on a towable sled and snowshoe your way over. We'll build a nice big bonfire out back and I'll show you how to Jebride an ATV in a snowstorm like a true West Virginian (yeah we did a slight mod on the traditional Jebwalk to better fit the terrain and add some local flavor). 

Back to the models -- we need to combine our energies to get this to sub-120hrs. In addition to CAPE/Amped/cae and other guys in this thread, HM and Cranky have both noted the potential in the upcoming period, but all the various pieces are probably going to drive the models crazy for a while (as we've frequently seen this year already). The nice thing about this threat is at least we are coming off a moderately decent late event hit last week and the kids got a good couple of sledding days in. So anything we get now is just gravy. 

And I think I figured out what happened to the Euro -- funding was tight, so they just grabbed the old unused code from the previous version of the NAM and merged that in to create the new Euro. I don't think I've truly been NAM'ed all year, but I've been Euro'ed more than once. 

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