87storms Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 14 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I haven't been following the weekend deal much but the "downhill" trajectory isn't a good way to get anything big. Quick hitter and light precip at best imho. Ops may be showing half decent qpf now but my guess is that backs down as we get closer. I guess we're in the game though. lol i think it can work as far as keeping cold air in place, but yea we may need a relaxation of that upper low to the north and probably need that vort to be strong enough to tap into some of that atlantic. it doesn't look like an impossible setup if we can some interaction with that rogue wave diving down from the northeast, but we'll need a north trend shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Doesn't look like this one is going to work. OH well. It was a pleasure tracking and chasing folks. At least we got one before the end of this wretched season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I like the extrapolated GFS 384 better. The Saturday storm is headed straight for the shred factory, no matter how much it tries to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 lol if it snows on my birthday i will seriously laugh @ april 7 "threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 And now this one misses to my south. **** this ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Doesn't look like this one is going to work. OH well. It was a pleasure tracking and chasing folks. At least we got one before the end of this wretched season. And even that "one" still managed to screw over some people...awful. Just awful...I think this winter scarred me, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonelaureliano1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And even that "one" still managed to screw over some people...awful. Just awful...I think this winter scarred me, lol Last winter was way worse, personally my only measurable event was a horrible coating of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 People seem to take more affront with this winter due to recency bias and the staggering amount of missed chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, colonelaureliano1 said: Last winter was way worse, personally my only measurable event was a horrible coating of ice. we didn't have a winter last year, so i agree. at least we had an early season suburbs snow, partially frozen potomac in early january, and a historical late march snow. it was a C-/D+ winter. last year was an F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, colonelaureliano1 said: Last winter was way worse, personally my only measurable event was a horrible coating of ice. Personally, it was easier to take because of the lack of chances...So it wasn't a lot of tracking with no return (only two real misses, IIRC). But this season? Absolutely brutal and mentally draining with all the close misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 might have to take a drive...24 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: And now this one misses to my south. **** this ****. The total snowfall map posted showed your house getting more than mine with this last storm and I recorded 8"? What did you end up getting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: might have to take a drive...24 inches? Isn’t that bullseye approximately where we want it at this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The only reason it didn't fail for me is THIS YEAR I promised my son snow AGAIN (I did last year as well) and this year it actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: might have to take a drive...24 inches? This would be just one last slap in the face if it were to turn out this way...spare me. This winter...mercy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 might have to take a drive...24 inches? had the opportunity to be in Blacksburg this Saturday and didn’t take it... little bit of regret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 46 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: The total snowfall map posted showed your house getting more than mine with this last storm and I recorded 8"? What did you end up getting? 3.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 3.6" You sound like me! Here in Loudoun County, as I barely squeaked past 3 inches. Although today makes me think I measured a bit low or that compaction was my issue and I need to be wiping off the measurement board I was using. Still, this was not the 6"+ most reported right near me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: You sound like me! Here in Loudoun County, as I barely squeaked past 3 inches. Although today makes me think I measured a bit low or that compaction was my issue and I need to be wiping off the measurement board I was using. Still, this was not the 6"+ most reported right near me! Nope, compaction wasn't my problem; it was lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 All we need is a 1,000 mile adjustment in under 48 hours for this weekend and you guys are already giving up hope? What happened to the forum I used to know? J/kSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Nope, compaction wasn't my problem; it was lack of precip. we did well in the morning near the city. it ripped for a couple hours with absolutely no accumulation issues whatsoever minus some more spotty pavement than you would expect in jan/feb. i have a feeling that H5 low was a bit too far north and/or not strong enough for wave 2. that and wave 1 may have messed with the dynamics of the whole transfer because once that low shifted east, everything just started to dry out/downslope/etc. the jumpy models hinted that something wasn't right upstairs even though the main players were there. wave 1 might have been a cleaner setup here had it been colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, 87storms said: we did well in the morning near the city. it ripped for a couple hours with absolutely no accumulation issues whatsoever minus some more spotty pavement than you would expect in jan/feb. i have a feeling that H5 low was a bit too far north and/or not strong enough for wave 2. that and wave 1 may have messed with the dynamics of the whole transfer because once that low shifted east, everything just started to dry out/downslope/etc. the jumpy models hinted that something wasn't right upstairs even though the main players were there. wave 1 might have been a cleaner setup here had it been colder. Even wave 1 was a bust here, devoid of significant precip. The precip formed right over/north of me and blossomed once it went to my north. Temps were irrelevant here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 42 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Even wave 1 was a bust here, devoid of significant precip. The precip formed right over/north of me and blossomed once it went to my north. Temps were irrelevant here. If I ever needed to find water I would steer clear of Stephens City... That place is bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Unfortunately, the GEFS do not like the idea of spring anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 North trend! Or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: North trend! Or something. If it sustains, it would be a significant trend for me in Augusta County. Before this, it was trending south and away from one last hurrah for winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: North trend! Or something. I know everyone has poured cold water on this threat. But for us South of DC and those just to the Southwest, its close enough to stay interested. Is it likely we get a good snowfall, probably not. We have seen a lot of changes inside of 72 hours this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Good...Maybe one more shot at a storm . Eps is 2 inches on the mean snowfall here If it wasnt the first week of April I would be slightly interested in the 10-15. Looks like the late Dec pattern but with a little help over GL. Plenty of cold around for another anomalous event. My business and my fishing gear could use some warm warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The Low NE of Maine is a little farther North and East this run. Two more corrections like that in the next 36 hours and we can probably see something down my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: The Low NE of Maine is a little farther North and East this run. Two more corrections like that in the next 36 hours and we can probably see something down my way You made the thread for it, so go post it there Gotta give the storm enough attention so that it feels the need to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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