Kmlwx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's NAM at 84 but looks like it dives south of us and it's a South to Central Virginia Storm. Guess DC could get just clipped if it went past 84. North trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 29 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's NAM at 84 but looks like it dives south of us and it's a South to Central Virginia Storm. Guess DC could get just clipped if it went past 84. Isn't this where we say "EXACTLY where we want it at this range!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 GFS looks exactly like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Isn't this where we say "EXACTLY where we want it at this range!" March 26.. yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 CMC looks like a moderate hit, including DC.....maybe we're still in the running for a few more inches on top of what we're getting now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Alright, next (and probably last) threat! How'd the EURO look this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Alright, next (and probably last) threat! How'd the EURO look this afternoon? Grazing blow, but north of 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Mainly south.. decent for SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright, next (and probably last) threat! How'd the EURO look this afternoon? Hard to tell because of the big time difference in panels but it looked more like the CMC to me. It's at least a little north of the GFS it would appear. Still probably worth watching, especially for DC and south. Baltimore should keep an eye out as well, but it's probably too far south for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 there is really no way to get this to come 150 miles north unless the ULL over New england is not as supressive. Its always something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 i counted about 20 or so solutions that brought decent stuff to our area. But the best potential is definitely south. A bulls eye hit down there is way better for them than a bullseye hit up here for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Goodbye winter, hello 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: Goodbye winter, hello 60s Pretty sure I saw that March finishes with a warm-up but that April its back to cold (though obviously not winter-like cold) weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 NAM is still south, same place as last run basically. It's honestly not much of a storm either way. In and out in 10 hours. Then again, that would be longer than today's storm............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The Saturday event is south though some models do get some precip nearby or even into the area. Might be an easier setup than this past one if it can trend north towards game time. Looks like an overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Saturday is not dead yet. Comes in at night too. Cmon North trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Saturday is not dead yet. Comes in at night too. Cmon North trend. Never give up. But I think this might be the end. Today was a gift from above. Warner weather is lurking and ready to make entrance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said: Saturday is not dead yet. Comes in at night too. Cmon North trend. it would be supportive of snow, but it really wants to take that la nina dive to the carolinas again. might be the last chance this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: it would be supportive of snow, but it really wants to take that la nina dive to the carolinas again. might be the last chance this season. I haven't been following the weekend deal much but the "downhill" trajectory isn't a good way to get anything big. Quick hitter and light precip at best imho. Ops may be showing half decent qpf now but my guess is that backs down as we get closer. I guess we're in the game though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I haven't been following the weekend deal much but the "downhill" trajectory isn't a good way to get anything big. Quick hitter and light precip at best imho. Ops may be showing half decent qpf now but my guess is that backs down as we get closer. I guess we're in the game though. lol Looks like CMC was the best model if you wanted snowfall to reach DCA... and it was decent. Probably last call FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 This is definitely the last call storm.. i won’t be shocked if we back into a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 NAM is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: NAM is close Hey @Ji Palm Sunday commute...we especially will have to keep an eye on this one! (That would be kinda historic in it's own way...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I haven't been following the weekend deal much but the "downhill" trajectory isn't a good way to get anything big. Quick hitter and light precip at best imho. Ops may be showing half decent qpf now but my guess is that backs down as we get closer. I guess we're in the game though. lol 2 hours ago, yoda said: Looks like CMC was the best model if you wanted snowfall to reach DCA... and it was decent. Probably last call FWIW The early March clipper in 2007 took a similar track with that diving down trajectory. That one started further to the north/northwest and dove right into us. Mountains didn't eat it up either because of the angle it hit us. An extremely cold night followed that one with fresh snow cover, light winds and high pressure coming down. There doesn't seem to be anything to pull this one up and hit us but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 6 hours ago, nj2va said: Goodbye winter, hello 60s Where do you get these graphs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I haven't been following the weekend deal much but the "downhill" trajectory isn't a good way to get anything big. Quick hitter and light precip at best imho. Ops may be showing half decent qpf now but my guess is that backs down as we get closer. I guess we're in the game though. lol Bob... I agree... even if it takes a more northern route... the mountains would destroy the precip field. It would be what amounts to an Alberta Clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I can't believe we are tracking another snowstorm. In late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 What an absolute mauling for my area on almost every single short and long term model. I can not believe we have a round two storm. Funny part is this may be the main course, when we just had the appetizer. An 8” appetizer is what I’m talking about!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Can we complain our way to a north trend? Worked for the northern folks for this week's storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Mount Holly discussion on the chances for Saturday as they see it now.. Another strong vort max moves southward from eastern Canada on Saturday as a separate vort max moves west- to- east through the central U.S. and interacts with the digging perturbation. Attendant surface low in the central plains Saturday looks to be shunted southward somewhat as it tracks into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Just how far south is a challenging question, with considerable disagreement among the operational guidance. The GFS looks especially suspicious, though, given its very progressive evolution of the northern- stream vort max. The 12Z CMC/ECMWF are slower and (as a result) have the track of the southern- stream system a little farther north. This may give the Delmarva Peninsula a chance for some precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. Additionally, there are some indications that as the surface low intensifies off the coast that wraparound (light) precipitation may affect the eastern CWA on Sunday (aided by the passage of the main northern-stream vort max). Cannot discount chances of rain and/or snow for much (if any) of the area during this period, so kept slight-chance PoPs in the grids. If the southward- deflection of the southern-stream system occurs later than anticipated, this may bring somewhat heavier precipitation into the area (especially Delmarva). A low- confidence forecast exists for this period, to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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