Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: by ignoring it entirely Yeahnif it's totally wrong with the Northern stream. Even the gfs trended towards it, so thats looking doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Not trying to wishcast this storm because an out of phase miss is obviously a distinct possibility. Having said that I've seen plenty of storms over the years have the timing adjusted to be completely out of phase and sheared out as the euro shows to then gradually adjust the timing on one of the streams so that they get back in phase. So while things don't look good at the moment with the current lead time and a storm out in front of this one yet to clear the area, I wouldn't be surprised if things shift significantly for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I didn't think the Euro run was that bad. We need a big change from 00z, but it's unlikely the Euro would make such a big change in one run at this range (it could happen, but not likely). We need it to continue to incrementally adjust to a better setup, and this is not a bad first step. At least it's in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I mean, at least the Euro gets frozen into Virginia. Dunno. Having the Euro basically miss 3 times consecutively when the margin of error should be narrowing is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Jma misses the phase too. But it looks way closer then the euro. Euro is a shred factory look. I don't mind how the ggem gfs and jma miss. Get things synced up more and a more amplified result is supported. The euro looks awful. Nothing can stand a chance in that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Is the blocking really breaking down now though? Initially, we all loved this timeframe because it was a classic period where we would score in terms of the blocking breaking down. That doesn't seem to be the case now as it seems like it's going to hold on longer. I'm not giving up on this yet because we aren't even past the storm tonight/tomorrow, and until that clears the deck I'm really not all that interested in parsing details, but is that a concern at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Is the blocking really breaking down now though? Initially, we all loved this timeframe because it was a classic period where we would score in terms of the blocking breaking down. That doesn't seem to be the case now as it seems like it's going to hold on longer. I'm not giving up on this yet because we aren't even past the storm tonight/tomorrow, and until that clears the deck I'm really not all that interested in parsing details, but is that a concern at all? Euro is simulating a much stronger Ridge not only over the western states but extending into the Plains. It is quite amplified and without adequate phasing of the two streams there is no way for this to develop and come north per the euro. Two sheared waves and a southern slider off the coast. Check out the 500 height anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 EPS looks improved on the snow mean side. More NW hits by eyeballing it, but not a huge improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 As long as the storm isn't just disappeared idgaf. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: EPS looks improved on the snow mean side. More NW hits by eyeballing it, but not a huge improvement Thats geat to hear. Looking at the mean h5 maps, they don't look great but not awful either. What's the mean snowfall for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 UT EPS gives DC a 26/52% chance of >3" of snow during the next 5/10 days and a 2/24% chance of > 6". The odds from the 00 UT run were 4/22% for >3" and 0/12% for > 6". The corresponding odds for far-northern MD (north of DC) are 96/96% and 54/70%. The odds from the 00UT run were 30/52% and 10/20%. Obviously, too high due to 10:1 assumption and the fact that this run is a bullish outlier for tomorrow compared to past EPS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The storm in a few days feels like rain. +500dm -PNA is record breaking, and it's strong +EPO too. Wavelengths climatologically are similar now as January and February. (It's like 100-98-95-75-50, March being 95.) Models right now have a few perfect scenarios lined up. It's also pretty warm outside This is the last 7 days when -NAO was strongest EPO always busts warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 FWIW, 18z NAM looks to have a better defined 50/50 in ME at 78 hrs and the energy in Canada is a bit further west at the h5 level compared to 12z at 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: 12 UT EPS gives DC a 26/52% chance of >3" of snow during the next 5/10 days and a 2/24% chance of > 6". The odds from the 00 UT run were 4/22% for >3" and 0/12% for > 6". The corresponding odds for far-northern MD (north of DC) are 96/96% and 54/70%. The odds from the 00UT run were 30/52% and 10/20%. Obviously, too high due to 10:1 assumption and the fact that this run is a bullish outlier for tomorrow compared to past EPS runs. So if I get this right... 12z EPS was bullish about our snow chances for our upcoming storm chance, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The eps individual members look better than I expected. About 15 or so have snow either focused for northern areas or southern areas or are flush hits. There are a handful of huge hits. There is also a group that hits the southern .va area hard. As bad as the op looked I am pleasantly surprised at how many members snow on us for the 11/12 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18z ICON at hr 120 at the h5 level -- I don't think it looks too bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I'v been away from the boards for like 36 hrs and now the bowling ball ull is a strung out mess according to the euro. Did Ji cancel what's left of winter?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 gfs coming in... captured? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18z GFS 1000mb SLP C KY/TN border at 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 More stream interaction with the quicker northern stream diving into the backside of the trot...better heights in front as a response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Def a stronger northern energy on the gfs....little less separation between n and s piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, yoda said: 18z GFS 1000mb SLP C KY/TN border at 111 SLP at 117 extreme SE KY/SW VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Looks like the GFS and Euro continue to disagree quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, psurulz said: I'v been away from the boards for like 36 hrs and now the bowling ball ull is a strung out mess according to the euro. Did Ji cancel what's left of winter?? No, the models are having trouble sorting it out. The model runs will improve. This is definitely worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That is a transfer at 120 and 123? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Happy Hour delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1004mb SLP just east of HSE at 129 1002mb SLP 150 miles or so out off of HSE at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1004mb SLP just east of HSE at 129 1002mb SLP 150 miles or so out off of HSE at 132Nobody seems to care lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I care. Is it a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GFS happy hour always comes through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.