Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I remeber the GFS showing a very similar looking map in DEC 2009 until 60hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I would like to see that 50/50 relax as it approaches. Hard to amplify too much with that stuck there. Big ones that feature moves out as our storm starts to enter the amplification zone in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 All I have so far are gefs mean h5, mean slp, and mean precip so can't say for sure without individuals but it looks like a slightly better run then 0z and 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Unless I got the wrong maps, UKMET is a hit Those panels do not go out to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 44 minutes ago, Ji said: 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem races the stj wave so far ahead it's a completely different system. A weak stj wave sliding east under us then a weak clipper that was the support for the storm washing out a day behind it. Lol This setup won't work without phasing. The flow is too suppressive for a stj wave to bully north on its own. If it misses the boat with the trough digging it will probably stay south. Again....why is the flow so progressive. What happened to nao creating traffic jams with systems Progressive and suppressed aren't the same thing. The stj system ejects ahead of the trough digging this run. They don't sync up. Blocking doesn't guarantee that. But it is keeping the system under us. This could evolve lots of ways. If the energy does split into two weak waves we lose. If one weaker wave races out as a front runner but leaves enough behind it could phase and bomb still. Or the NS speeds up and catches. The final result isn't known yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GEFS seems about the same as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Those panels do not go out to 144. I was in the wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It's not that hard is the UKmet a hit or no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: It's not that hard is the UKmet a hit or no I can't imagine it can be from the h5 I saw posted. That was very positive tilted and south. And weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Nogaps took a positive trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: GEFS seems about the same as 6z I believe it's better if your looking at the mean. The precip panels are more expansive compared to 6z. I was prepared for a let down but they look fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: It's not that hard is the UKmet a hit or no NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1962 had a similar -NAO block with cold east configuration, and it came back 3 weeks later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 33 minutes ago, Amped said: I remeber the GFS showing a very similar looking map in DEC 2009 until 60hrs out. Yeah, 2009 was jackpotting central va in the lead up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: That is a super location specific comment, that’s for sure... I dont want to hear about location specific. Those of us to the west have been watching you guys get snow for two and a half years while we sit under partly sunny skies. Snow is an IMBY game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Yeah, 2009 was jackpotting central va in the lead up Not trying to compare these types of huge storms to the event we're going to see (or not), but GB 2016 had the jackpot in NoVA, and the Euro jackpotted Richmond for a run or 2, when in reality the jackpot was Dulles westward & even Northward to an extent (IIRC looking through the threat there were concerns from many such as Mappy since the Euro screwed them during the Tuesday & Wednesday runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z GEPS took a step back for March 12th, both in terms of the means and the individual members. Still some good hits there, but not as many as 00z. Some misses south of us that weren't there are 00z as well. But if we do get hit, we do well. There are only three members that give me more than 0.2" of qpf as snow, but each of those gives me over 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 To my weenie eyes, Euro and GFS pretty similar through 96. Euro does have a stronger 50/50 further south as the only difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: To my weenie eyes, Euro and GFS pretty similar through 96. Euro does have a stronger 50/50 further south as the only difference. 120 big differences still. GFS has a 999 Low in KY and Euro has the wave in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 (couldn't find the puke emoji) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Euro doesn't look to be giving us a save. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I dont want to hear about location specific. Those of us to the west have been watching you guys get snow for two and a half years while we sit under partly sunny skies. Snow is an IMBY game. You must have Baltimore city confused with the eastern shore. Seriously. If you think pity one inch snows are where it’s at, have at it, but we have been as screwed over as you all in terms of legit snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, MN Transplant said: (couldn't find the puke emoji) Yeah...i didn't even know what say...this picture says everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Euro looks good at 96 but then it just shears the vort to hell and gone. Northern stream kills it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Dr. No say No to winter. Bring on spring guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Next? winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 At least it is getting precip into TN this run. Who knows at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Crazy how much disagreement there is between GFS, GEFS, and Euro. Here is the GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Euro has been consistently ugly. I don't know how we win with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro has been consistently ugly. I don't know how we win with that setup. by ignoring it entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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