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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Head cold is sill kicking my butt. Sleep was rough last night.

Sorry to hear that. 

GFS came in marginally better then the NAM's. Think those just to the NE of Baltimore still need to keep an eye on this. For those west of Balt's longitude? Short of the coastal low kamikazing the coast line I think we are pretty much sitting this one out. 

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Ended up with an inch of wet slushy snow here overnight. Some absolutely huge flakes at times. Just some light rain now and temp is up to 35.

Will be interesting to see what happens a bit later as the coastal gets cranking. Some models have a decent burst of snow moving through here, others keep it just north. I kinda like the 6z 3k NAM lol.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Ended up with an inch of wet slushy snow here overnight. Some absolutely huge flakes at times. Just some light rain now and temp is up to 35.

Will be interesting to see what happens a bit later as the coastal gets cranking. Some models have a decent burst of snow moving through here, others keep it just north. I kinda like the 6z 3k NAM lol.

Yeah, It looked half decent farther south on the eastern shore. Pretty much nowcasting at this point though and hope for the best. Pretty crappy up my way any way you look at it though. Missed out for the most part with the initial slug of moisture and will most likely miss out on the CCB. Probably the only hope I have left is if the ULL energy is more energetic then currently modeled.

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Look at the upper atmosphere and the storm overall. It is cringe worthy how close we are. This storm forms 75 miles southwest and all of central MD and points NE see warning snowfall. 

At second glance that doesn’t appear to the CCB band forming near Baltimore. We’re not quite there yet. The storm is still extremely disorganized as you can see the multiple pockets of moisture and not one big slug of moisture. No pivoting yet, etc. that’s just the storm firing up and the dry pockets beginning to fill in. MY GOD. Looking at the current upstairs mechanisms is cringe worthy for weenies. Baltimore city COULD be in the thick of things for a few hours with points north and NE getting a solid snowfall. 

Next 2ish hours are pivotal for Baltimore metro. 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, It looked half decent farther south on the eastern shore. Pretty much nowcasting at this point though and hope for the best. Pretty crappy up my way any way you look at it though. Missed out for the most part with the initial slug of moisture and will most likely miss out on the CCB. Probably the only hope I have left is if the ULL energy is more energetic then currently modeled.

You N MD/S PA folks should hug the HRRRX. It has the CCB building pretty far west with the ULL energy coming through, and between the 2, looks like some nice banding sets up. I bet PSU still ends up with a few inches.

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looks like the western edge of the comma is gonna set up from parkville to college park... will probably need to be 10-15 miles inside that to get in tot the good action.  Starting to snow harder here in catonsville.  1.5 inches now. 

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Though it only lasted a few hours, it poured snow in eastern Baltimore County from about 930pm-1230. Was actually difficult to see while driving where there weren’t enough street lights. Probably was able to get about 1.5” in Dundalk. During the lull it consolidated and sublimated. Street did become slushed over, plow came thru it’s ok now. Tough to tell what it’s doing out there now but from my snow plow client it is a mix of rain and snow right now in Essex. Probably will be hard pressed to get much more with daylight coming soon

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

You N MD/S PA folks should hug the HRRRX. It has the CCB building pretty far west with the ULL energy coming through, and between the 2, looks like some nice banding sets up. I bet PSU still ends up with a few inches.

Hope it's right but.... the HRRRX. 

Just got a chance to look at the GFS with our Sun/Mon storm and I see that it is DC and south as well. I know that is where we want to see it at this point but it sure would have been nice to see a flush hit just to boost my moral this morning.

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6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Though it only lasted a few hours, it poured snow in eastern Baltimore County from about 930pm-1230. Was actually difficult to see while driving where there weren’t enough street lights. Probably was able to get about 1.5” in Dundalk. During the lull it consolidated and sublimated. Street did become slushed over, plow came thru it’s ok now. Tough to tell what it’s doing out there now but from my snow plow client it is a mix of rain and snow right now in Essex. Probably will be hard pressed to get much more with daylight coming soon

34 and rain now in Edgemere/Sparrows Point due to a warm nose from the Bay I guess.  Was surprised by the 1.5 " of snow. Figured we wouldn't get much, if any.

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Hope it's right but.... the HRRRX. 

Just got a chance to look at the GFS with our Sun/Mon storm and I see that it is DC and south as well. I know that is where we want to see it at this point but it sure would have been nice to see a flush hit just to boost my moral this morning.

Both the HRRR and the HRRRX did well late yesterday and last night depicting the better qpf shifting more over this way, and most of it falling as snow. Sometimes they ain't too bad.

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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I think people bash the HRRR a little too much. It does Ok sometimes. Certainly hit on the shift east in the precip field on later runs 

Maybe we are a little hard on it at times. But when I see the latest run pretty much miss the band running through DC/Balt at basically now casting time (1 hr lead) it doesn't instill much confidence

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Got about 1.5 inches here in Woodlawn. Started coming down pretty decently on my commute in and actually starting to cover a lot of the parking lots. This storm just isn't happening for us. I know it's just getting going, but it seems well east of where it was modeled.

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Started off as sleet yesterday afternoon with rain mixing in.  Once temps dropped then it switched to snow in the evening and came down really nicely.  Fatties.

.5"-.75" on grassy and elevated areas.  I'm happy with that given that most models didn't have me getting much if any at all.

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5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

My mood changed a bit when I actually looked outside. It looks spectacular, with almost 3” and paste everywhere.

If this CCB isn’t meant to be, then I’ll take what we got and call it a day.

Congrats. 3 inchs from last night or from the band rotating through now or a combo?

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Going to be pretty painful watching Philly and especially NYC get crushed from this. Both, and particularly NYC, might end up with historic totals from this. The shift east should put both of them in the heavy snow. Radar looks good for Philly even though it's going to get going a little later than they'd like for them, but that would seem to put NYC and possibly even Boston as well in a great spot. Insult to injury for the past few winters down here. I feel like the cities north and east of Baltimore have really had a great winter actually.

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