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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe it's dumb to put so much stock in HRRR, but it's ticking east with each run and we lose the deform band tomorrow. Maybe it's wrong but is it too early to say bust? Euro might be about to get schooled.

It would also be a bit reassuring if it wasn't raining right now.

It was supposed to be raining now. If the euro is schooled, it won’t by the hrrr.

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I have a bad feeling. The hrrr sucks so it's probably just being nervous. But being honest I have a bad feeling the 0z runs are gonna shift east after I finally let myself think it would snow lol. Would serve me right. 
All I'm going to say is only the heaviest runs showed snow at all over me by 9pm
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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have a bad feeling. The hrrr sucks so it's probably just being nervous. But being honest I have a bad feeling the 0z runs are gonna shift east after I finally let myself think it would snow lol. Would serve me right. 

Haven't the two biggest northeast storms of the winter shifted east at the last minute?

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I have a bad feeling. The hrrr sucks so it's probably just being nervous. But being honest I have a bad feeling the 0z runs are gonna shift east after I finally let myself think it would snow lol. Would serve me right. 

Its all wet snow here now. Nothing shocking as it was in the forecast. I am surprised at how impressive the radar returns are though. Was thinking light to moderate stuff tonight, then warming aloft here tomorrow morning with rain, while you get clobbered with the deform band lol. Probably still on track.

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2 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

33 with heavy wet snow in Easton accumulating on everything but pavement.

Pretty impressive temperature falls. Was 44 not long ago, now 35 here with heavy wet snow. Slushy light accumulation on the deck. Tonight is our chance to get a light accumulation, so hopefully we can keep up the good rates for a while before temps warm aloft when the coastal gets going.

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Believed models took into no account the remains of our whirling dervish windstorm covering about 1/3 of the Atlantic. The counterclockwise is tugging the precip shield further east

if the 6pm portrayed 15" around Philadelphia and 5" around Baltimore turn out zip and zip then perhaps a few model huggwrs will finally concede that this "science" needs some serious fixing. Right  now it's too warm even with the 850/925 hanging below freezing plus the shield has less north component than it will need.  Unlike the 1-3" quick  blast that I was on board for the parameters for this one were never good

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Believed models took into no account the remains of our whirling dervish windstorm covering about 1/3 of the Atlantic. The counterclockwise is tugging the precip shield further east

if the 6pm portrayed 15" around Philadelphia and 5" around Baltimore turn out zip and zip then perhaps a few model huggwrs will finally concede that this "science" needs some serious fixing. Right  now it's too warm even with the 850/925 hanging below freezing plus the shield has less north component than it will need.  Unlike the 1-3" quick  blast that I was on board for the parameters for this one were never good

 

 

Northeast md should still be in the game. This isn’t a good storm to use the radar with. The precip will probably pivot at some point in that area.

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10 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

33 with heavy wet snow in Easton accumulating on everything but pavement.

Yeah man, quite the surprise!  I went inside about about 7:30 and it was raining pretty good, then come out just now to lock the shop and the cars are topped!

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