Leaking Gut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs with noticeable increase in qpf from 6z 12z 6z Are there some extreme outliers that are causing the mean to increase? Or is snow possible for DC metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Most GEFS members are west of the Op. Not sure if thats a legit signal given we’re only 48-54 hrs out, but it’s intereting. Does this mean a cleaner handoff to the coastal at a better latitude for us? Or a better h5 location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Waiting for the 12z... but both 00z WRF-ARW runs looked nice at hr 48 as the run ended The 12z NMMB and primary ARW runs are both on mag.ncep.noaa.gov, and both look awful with no precip shield extending back to the west, for what they're worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 How dare you fill this thread up with legit analysis Sorry man.@showmethesnow and I will tone it back . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, high risk said: The 12z NMMB and primary ARW runs are both on mag.ncep.noaa.gov, and both look awful with no precip shield extending back to the west, for what they're worth. So, the 00z runs of the WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 on TT were better than the 12z runs... am I getting that right? As in the 12z runs are worse than the 00z runs TT shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Leaking Gut said: Are there some extreme outliers that are causing the mean to increase? Or is snow possible for DC metro? Here's the QPF panels for all the members. Make up your own "potential snow" based on your take of surface/mid level temps. My calculation is 4:1 at best for anywhere south of I70 with the heavy precip solutions only. Light qpf = 0:1 ratios. Anywhere that gets 1"+ of QPF could potentially get 6-8:1 at best (probably closer to 6:1). Just my take and guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Euro puts NE MD in the game this run. Notable short lead shift but won't make too many friends outside of NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, yoda said: So, the 00z runs of the WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 on TT were better than the 12z runs... am I getting that right? As in the 12z runs are worse than the 00z runs TT shows Yes, the 12z ARW and NMMB have lousy precip shields. Can't get the ARW2 on the mag.ncep.noaa.gov site. Those models are actually available by 15z, but TT don't run the graphics until a couple of hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro puts NE MD in the game this run. Notable short lead shift but won't make too many friends outside of NE MD. Seems like an improvement. Trend is your friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro puts NE MD in the game this run. Notable short lead shift but won't make too many friends outside of NE MD. Yea, it now looks like the NAMs looked yesterday. It's playing catch up it seems...trending with everything else but 2 cycles behind the game. I have a weird feeling the more amplified solutions might be onto something here. Still might not be enough to get area's southwest of Baltimore into anything significant but everything has been ticking west and the models that were really far to the east (euro) are starting to catch on and made a pretty significant jump this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea, it now looks like the NAMs looked yesterday. It's playing catch up it seems...trending with everything else but 2 cycles behind the game. I have a weird feeling the more amplified solutions might be onto something here. Still might not be enough to get area's southwest of Baltimore into anything significant but everything has been ticking west and the models that were really far to the east (euro) are starting to catch on and made a pretty significant jump this morning. Euro snow maps now look exactly like the ones my mind drew up a few days ago. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NE MD PUMMELING Sounds about right. After all, the coastal plain is usually the target for early-spring snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 ah, euro. so close, yet still so far. need a smidgen west shift and id be happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Saw 4”+ for Harford and Cecil with Kuchera for the euro on another site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Saw 4”+ for Harford and Cecil with Kuchera for the euro on another site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: classic miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 ^I’d be thrilled with 1” from this thing. But I’m hugging the 3k NAM until I have a better option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, high risk said: Yes, the 12z ARW and NMMB have lousy precip shields. Can't get the ARW2 on the mag.ncep.noaa.gov site. Those models are actually available by 15z, but TT don't run the graphics until a couple of hours later. ARW2 is really nice to say the least, lol. & im skeptical the cutoff is that sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: ^I’d be thrilled with 1” from this thing. But I’m hugging the 3k NAM until I have a better option. I think you found it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: ARW2 is really nice to say the least, lol. & im skeptical the cutoff is that sharp It probably would continue after the run ends I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 odd, though dynamic looking system... https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 EPS has 35-45% chance of 6”+ for mappy and Harford county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Getting pumped for a Naming in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 CTP expanded the winter storm watches south to include Lancaster and York counties. LWX would probably follow with a watch for Baltimore and Harford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: CTP expanded the winter storm watches south to include Lancaster and York counties. LWX would probably follow with a watch for Northern Baltimore and Harford. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Fixed Ah yea, good point...forgot about the split! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 If I was in Baltimore-north I'd be pumped as heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: If I was in Baltimore-north I'd be pumped as heck let me fix image Yea mappy is gonna jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.