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The Iceman

March 7-8 possible snow threat

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Tossing a hail Mary pass after 06z guidance wasn't the best trend for Wednesday. I haven't really been able to follow so I don't have much to add but I figured I would start a thread for discussion since me doing that has worked well for us of late :lol: hopefully I can catch up by tonight and give my two cents. Last I checked yesterday this still had a lot of potential but I know how quickly things change... Regardless looks like there is still a threat but we need some good trends soon. Someone else can certainly add more.

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3 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Thats the problem with the philly forum we need some real mets or atleast people that dont hug every model run

Occasionally but not normally...most are level headed and know the routine. It's fine...

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

First thing i read is no storm anymore then see the gfs and it has an historic snow bomb interesting

 

Nobody cancelled the storm threat. It was mentioned that 6z was later with the capture but likely a hiccup which most of 12Z proved was correct in assuming. That is precisely what happened to the red taggers that used to post here......they would post their thoughts or relay what the models are saying, posters would bash them for "flip flipping" when they were merely breaking down a model run, and finally they had enough and left because they couldn't analyze anything without getting chastised.

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Right now it's got that classic Miller B look to it in that it gets going a little too late for us. I guess the hope is/was the block would send the primary a little further south to help us out with the coastal development. Still have some time, but not liking today's trends so far.

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12Z GFS/GEFS both maintained course with consistent clustering and a general 4-8" snowfall SE PA. 18Z NAM insistent that the 6Z late capture we saw was merely a hiccup and continued the trend from 12Z in capturing the lp and hitting SE PA and most of NJ hard with a 4-8"/5-10" system. Wish the Euro would jump back on board tho. Need that EE rule ftw! I don't think this one is over yet by any means. the GFS and GEFS have barely waivered at ALL the last few days. I mean, the GEFS clustering literally has not changed and the precip means is maintaining and even ticking up slightly. The GFS is either dead wrong consistently or is leading the pack. I still think the blocking is being slightly under-forecast and we could see some more positive adjustments the next couple of days.

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Just saw some of the Euro members. Wow, some serious heavy hitters in there. It looks like if this can get captured, it's bomb's away, If it escapes we get brushed. Basically all or nothing is what the EPS is hinting at imo. Need to watch future trends of ULL interactition with energy diving S near the GL, angle of trof and when/if it goes negative, as well as modeling of NAO ridging.

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Yep...another kick in the nads for those west of Chester county. 
18z gfs is much more forgiving to those of us north and west folks. Nam seems to be improving each run north and west as well. Good trends today imo.

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Fields27 said:

18z gfs is much more forgiving to those of us north and west folks. Nam seems to be improving each run north and west as well. Good trends today imo.

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk
 

I can't believe it untill i see snow falling as Miller b's almost always screw Lancaster Co.  The way things are going this winter, why buck the trend?

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1 hour ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Lol the precip looks good for SEPA on the gfs but when I look at the Ptype, all rain 


.

Dew points at 33 34 on the GFS with heavy precip but it is somehow 38 degrees at the surface. Lol ok...This is either going to be heavy snow or white rain. If we get heavy rates it is a 4 to 8 type deal of wet clinging snow. 

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Was at the flower show all day but I'm glad we saw some great trends today. Can't believe this thread thing is actually working :lmao::lmao: Not too concerned with temps right now..as we saw a few days ago heavy rates can overcome thermals . Won't be making 00z tonight as I'm dead tired lol but I'll be in here first thing tomorrow to break down my thoughts after hopefully a good night of big hits. I'll be here in spirit tn.

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