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March 7-8 possible snow threat


The Iceman

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WXSIM for NW Chester County with 18z GFS/NAM of course goes to 8" to 12" of snow with the mid-week system

Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then snow likely after
 midnight. Low 30. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 38. Wind southeast around 7 mph.
 Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 around half an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.
 
 Wednesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. Snow likely. High 33. Wind chill
 around 23. Wind east-southeast around 8 mph in the morning, becoming northeast
 in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches.

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6 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

It’s the fall line.  Very typical in borderline temp situations 

I live very close to route 1, found it comical.  I don't take snow maps this early very seriously and from my experience for having lived in the area you could bump that cut off line up further north into Upper Bucks. 

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7 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I live very close to route 1, found it comical.  I don't take snow maps this early very seriously and from my experience for having lived in the area you could bump that cut off line up further north into Upper Bucks. 

Lived here my entire life (44 years). The fallline is where the changeover usually always falls in these setups.  Of course that map will change, but based on the setup as depicted it makes sense for that run

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Can someone get RedSky and the others away from the ledge and tell them things will be alright? Things are looking solid.....maybe overdone on the NAM. In any event it would be alot more encouraging if the Euro joined the club again at 0z. Seemed like guidance always has that one suite when key energy rolls onshore they overcompensate before heading back to the previous trends. We saw that at 6z earlier which was the reason I urged caution and not panic. If that trend continued then yeah.....sucky. But game on. Plus we have the Iceman thread starter rule in effect......we got this :-D

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can someone get RedSky and the others away from the ledge and tell them things will be alright? Things are looking solid.....maybe overdone on the NAM. In any event it would be alot more encouraging if the Euro joined the club again at 0z. Seemed like guidance always has that one suite when key energy rolls onshore they overcompensate before heading back to the previous trends. We saw that at 6z earlier which was the reason I urged caution and not panic. If that trend continued then yeah.....sucky. But game on. Plus we have the Iceman thread starter rule in effect......we got this :-D

Away from the ledge this storm might kill me

 

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Can someone get RedSky and the others away from the ledge and tell them things will be alright? Things are looking solid.....maybe overdone on the NAM. In any event it would be alot more encouraging if the Euro joined the club again at 0z. Seemed like guidance always has that one suite when key energy rolls onshore they overcompensate before heading back to the previous trends. We saw that at 6z earlier which was the reason I urged caution and not panic. If that trend continued then yeah.....sucky. But game on. Plus we have the Iceman thread starter rule in effect......we got this :-D
I agree. The trends today have been to bring this thing more west to get us all in on the action. That nam run was perfect. I'd like to see the Euro join the party. My guess is the gfs will be a similar to the nam with more realistic snow totals. It has been the furthest west model to this point.

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The ceiling is high with this one. Models have the low so tightly wound up and amped that whoever gets under the CCB will puke heavy snow in a short period. Also, I wouldn't worry about cold air because the antecedent airmass is much better than what we just had with the last snowstorm and the low will produce a strong ageostrophic component and produce its own cold air. Similar to last March's storm, I wouldn't be surprised if models continue to amp this up in the short range up until gametime.

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I agree. The trends today have been to bring this thing more west to get us all in on the action. That nam run was perfect. I'd like to see the Euro join the party. My guess is the gfs will be a similar to the nam with more realistic snow totals. It has been the furthest west model to this point.

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The GFS has been rock solid with this threat, more specifically the GEFS. The clustering of lp placement has been tight for days and never wavered. And the precip mean has also been steady with nary a fluctuation. Leading the way. Fingers crossed as this could still turn into a NYC points N and E special late in the game but with the NAO ridging and current modeling, I like our chances attm.
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