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The Iceman

March 7-8 possible snow threat

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The meso models have been showing considerably  less snow accumulation vs total snow for a while. Let's try to stay posotive though.

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What hurts is the slower development of lp but more importantly there is only marginally cold air prior to the storm. This time of year to really score we need a perfect track in this setup which we can still achieve. The CRAS which is usually West takes a perfect track and is East of the NAM for example.....crushes all of E PA with 1'+

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Insane the euro is gonna be off by low position 200 miles 72 hours out... Thought for sure we d tick east at 00z because the euro was so far east but everything continuing to point toward coastal hugger is going to doom everyone around 95 s and e imo if it holds or ticks west again at 12z and this could be a rain event for areas under winter storm warnings at the moment.
Hang tight Ice.....this isnt final yet. Might be noise or another hiccup run.
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Latest WXSIM with 6z NAM/GFS for NW Chester County has a mix of light rain/snow arriving by 6pm temp around 38. Becoming all snow by 830 tmep 33.9. Heavy snow by 1130pm with about an inch by midnight with temps at 31.5. Moderate snow becoming heavy toward morning with 3" on the ground by 730am. Heavy snow most of the morning with 10" on the ground by 1230pm. Snow continues till about 630pm with total snow accumulations around 14" and 1.69" w.e.

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It is pretty much a wrap for PHL seeing warning level snows. Par for the course with these types of systems in March. Those earlier NAM runs were a tease. 

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It is pretty much a wrap for PHL seeing warning level snows. Par for the course with these types of systems in March. Those earlier NAM runs were a tease. 

It is still really close. Would only need the NAM and CMC to tick a hair East. Dont stick a fork in it just yet. It was always close for I95. 6z trends not great for sure but like was saw Sunday, maybe a hiccup. There is still enough guidance far enough E with lp to keep hope alive but expectations in check still. When the mesos are showing warm nose punching N and W tho it does certainly warrant some concern. Lets see what 12z does tho. If trend continues then yeah. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is still really close. Would only need the NAM and CMC to tick a hair East. Dont stick a fork in it just yet. It was always close for I95. 6z trends not great for sure but like was saw Sunday, maybe a hiccup. There is still enough guidance far enough E with lp to keep hope alive but expectations in check still. When the mesos are showing warm nose punching N and W tho it does certainly warrant some concern. Lets see what 12z does tho. If trend continues then yeah. 

 

 

yup I'm holding on for 12z until making any changes. I really am hoping it was a hiccup after 00z pretty unanimously buried us all. Like you said we just need it a tick east not even to where the euro is at. Just a compromise somewhere between the euro and nam/gfs.

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Just now, Stormman96 said:

Its posts like this why i cant stand the philly forum anymore. Their is no reason at all to say this wont be a decent hit for philly

do you know how to read a sounding? take a look at PHL on the 6z nam and come back to tell me it is a decent hit for philly k?

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WTF with all the panic. Guys, we cant just look at every new model run and think that everything has changed. This ALWAYS happens. The surface L jumps around from east to west. IT moves the R/S line around and then, the QPF leads to panic. 

RELAX, the models are not forecasts! Its march and anything can happen, but this is about as locked in as we could hope for this time of year.

 

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Just now, Jsdphilly said:

WTF with all the panic. Guys, we cant just look at every new model run and think that everything has changed. This ALWAYS happens. The surface L jumps around from east to west. IT moves the R/S line around and then, the QPF leads to panic. 

RELAX, the models are not forecasts! Its march and anything can happen, but this is about as locked in as we could hope for this time of year.

 

acting like everything is fine and dandy is how disappointments like march 13, 17 happen. the mesos were showing the warm layer changing us over to sleet for most of the storm at like 30 hours out but we didn't want to believe it and hoped it wouldn't happen...and that storm had more cold air than we have current;y. I don't see this as panicking as it is just looking at the latest data and analyzing it. The warm tongue being shown at 6z is a big red flag and something to be concerned about if you live in the 95 area. Now it could change at 12z but the latest data definitely gives 95 area reason for worry.

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

do you know how to read a sounding? take a look at PHL on the 6z nam and come back to tell me it is a decent hit for philly k?

All im saying is everyone lives an dies with every mode run on here now an its rediculous. Just yesterday you were all excited now your crying like a little baby 

also im in quakertown so for me i see no reason to panic 

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Just now, Stormman96 said:

All im saying is everyone lives an dies with every mode run on here now an its rediculous. Just yesterday you were all excited now your crying like a little baby 

ok everything's great...no analysis of the latest model runs allowed...got it. 12 inches for everyone, nothing at all to worry about! see you all tomorrow since it's a lock.

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Just now, The Iceman said:

ok everything's great...no analysis of the latest model runs allowed...got it. 12 inches for everyone, nothing at all to worry about! see you all tomorrow since it's a lock.

Wow grow up. I never said philly was going to get 12+. Thats your prob if you actually believed that.  All i said was philly will see warning level snows which is 4+ if im not mistaken 

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Yea I may have over reacted a bit. Its just so frustrating to see this happen, every. single. storm...All we need to do is looking at the model runs for the same time period and it always has the L jumping left and right. I hop on here in the morning and all I see is people talking about how the most recent run makes them want to throw in the towel. 

We have all the pieces, the atmosphere is pushing this in the right direction. I still think 6-12 for the whole area is the right call.

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3 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Wow grow up. I never said philly was going to get 12+. Thats your prob if you actually believed that.  All i said was philly will see warning level snows which is 4+ if im not mistaken 

 yeah and 6z nam and gfs fail to get phl to warning criteria snows if you'd read a sounding...6z rgem gives PHL maybe an inch if that...

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

 yeah and 6z nam and gfs fail to get phl to warning criteria snows if you'd read a sounding...6z rgem gives PHL maybe an inch if that...

Awesome enjoy your inch. Looks like john bolaris nailed this one

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Just now, Stormman96 said:

Awesome enjoy your inch. Looks like john bolaris nailed this one

quote me where I said I was changing my forecast? I believe my exact words were "we need to wait til 12z before making any changes" so I really don't know why your panties are in a bunch. jumping on people for discussing the latest model runs because they show less snow is just so incredibly childish and immature. this is a science forum...discussing model runs is not crying. berating people discussing the latest data while adding nothing but "chill its going to snow well because i said so" truly adds nothing.

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While the latest has me in the screw zone I am not complaining.  Just want to add a post to say I do enjoy everyone's analysis here.  Breaks up my work day.

Happy to report what happens down here when it happens.

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12k NAM at least is a complete disaster...rain pushes up to quakertown.... but it looks like it definitely is having convective feedback issues.

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

.... but it looks like it definitely is having convective feedback issues.

lol, look at hours 26 and 27. The surface L jumps like 75 miles.

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temps crash as the winds shift to the NE...but we'll see how well we can do after tainting a few hours. still the 12k really looks just weird...not sure I trust this run. the 3k is coming out now, lets see what that does.

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