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March 7-8 possible snow threat

The Iceman

By The Iceman,
in Philadelphia Region

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MGorse

MGorse

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I have been sitting in the background reading posts from everyone. I am somewhat a met with no degree in met because they did not have them back then- called physical geographers in atmospheric science.  I am retired now. Most schools like Penn State were the few met schools but more became prominent in the late 60's and 70's. with the discovery of the IBM computer.  Anyway, I have many followers on my facebook page- mostly family and immediate friends and several municipalities in Lehigh County (was a township planner and asst emergency mgr). My uncle is a NWS retired head regional met from the western US.  He was a teacher to me. I was also an air traffic controller in the Navy. I was utilizing and reading weather charts before the GSM was even used. In other words, I rely heavily on yearly analogs and weather history patterns to issue my long range forecasts 2-4 weeks for my friends and family. I have enclosed a copy of recent postings on facebook concerning what we are going through. Many of my other  friends rely on my forecasting including a few snow plow contractors. I would be glad to help you guys with my opinion if you want it and why but I want you to understand that I do rely heavily on my weather pattern experience and not so much on computer modeling, especially the LR models like GFS and CMC being used for forecasting 36-72 hours before the storm event. Maybe you would just want another viewpoint of the evolving storm situation. Any way here is my recent facebook posting summarized for you on the past nor'easter weeks before the event.  Yes I do like to criticize the NWS in my facebook posts but remember, I am an old fart and I was in the air traffic controller in the Navy and I earned that right. My belief is that if it works do not change it.  By the way, I try to explain in layman terms to my friends what is going on. If the wording is not perfect, please go ahead and correct me. The old fart in me is kicking in. Thanks

To my weather friends: Here is a summary of some of my postings you may want to share with your friends with my forecasts as they relate to synopsis of todays nor'easter. Its time to show your friends what media hype will not get you. Notice the date of my first forecast was almost two weeks ago. Thanks for reading my posts

February 23 at 5:54pm · 
to my weather friends: The new weather pattern is starting to evolve. Computer weather models are going crazy as the La Nina pattern disintegrates. I am still calling for some type of nice snowstorm the first week of March 2-7 Until the then lots of rain. The potential storm on the first week of March may bring severe coastal flooding as well.

February 27 at 8:11am · 
to my weather friends: The next two storms will be a snowmaker, severe coastal flooding and heavy rain producing storm events. On cue as called several weeks ago, the first storm is tricky. Its the type of storm where it could be raining its but off in Allentown and puking snow in Jim Thorpe- elevation driven snow event that could even dump snow in the Lehigh Valley before it ends. The second storm on around March 8,could be a more significant snow event for us in the Lehigh Valley as there will be more cold air to work with. Regardless, I expect 1-2 inches of rain for us in the first storm which means flooding in the usual spots like Spring Creek Rd. Watch out for the potholes as they will be filled with water this time. The thing you will notice however is the rain will be wind driven this time, so it will not only look nasty but feel real nasty. The Poconos may see up to a foot of snow is still questionable depending on how cold it gets in the higher elevations. This is a very difficult first storm to call projected snow accumulations for any one place as a couple of degrees and elevation will make all the difference in the world- even in a few miles. Just be watching as the heavy rain could turn to heavy snow in an instant on Friday. By the way, for those who watch weather on TV, you will hear the terms like Miller B storm event and dynamic cooling. MIller B storm event is when the a primary low pressure system in the western PA dies off and transfers it energy to a new low pressure system forming along the Atlantic ocean. Since we are caught in between these two storm centers, it is difficult to predict snowfall amounts. Dynamic cooling or evaporational cooling is when it is raining and the rain cools the atmosphere so much that snow is able to fall all the way to the ground. Most media weathermen have no idea what these terms mean but trust me, they will will play it up anyway. The people along the coast could see historic flooding from the high tides and wind driven rains from the oceans if the secondary low pressure system that forms along NJ takes over more quickly. This can also give a better chance to see accumulating snow.

February 28, 2018
to my weather friends: On cue, the storm is coming with high wind gusts ( 40 mph +) , heavy rain and maybe heavy snow. I am disappointed with Mt Holly as they have not issued a winter storm watch for us in the LV even though we have met the criteria IMHO with three consecutive runs from the NAM short range model for 6+ snow. They have stated in their discussion that they do not believe in their own model. God I miss our local airport NWO weather location. Forecasting from southern NJ just does not cut it for me for the LV as we have our own unique geographical weather conditions.

Yesterday
I told you so attitude is coming out with this post that the traveling public will not be warned in time and there will be many accidents on the road. Why is it that when there is a significant storm event, they wait until the last second to pull out a winter storm warning but are deathly afraid to put out a winter storm watch? My wife say they should call a winter storm possibility rather than a watch as many are confused with the term. I agree. In the old days we called them travelers advisories. I think we should go back to them because once one was issued most people had the common sense to stay home. Anyway, prepare for the high winds and possible power outages in areas along with the local flooding areas including basements as the ground is still saturated.

Easy to criticize an NWS office when you have no clue what is going on within the office. And we do not always wait to the last second to issue a winter storm warning. 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

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Really thinking we will see the NAM/GFS start shifting a bit more S and E with the 0z runs to match Euro. Best snows will not be in western spots like me in NW Chesco...really liking from PNE and northeast to just west of NYC for biggest snow totals outside of New England. We shall see...

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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Im in levittown, lived here all my life. As of now i would plan for 6 inches. Guidance looks great now but March storms have not been kind to lower bucks historically. Even historically good storms fail here so I'm still cautiously optimistic heading into 00z for our area. I'm setting expectations at 6 inches for now because of how many things can go wrong in March last minute. But guidance is showing totals much higher besides the lower resolution gfs. The same gfs which got it's ass handed to it last weekend by the meso s in a similar set up. Not buying its thermals at all but it shows the potential issues of March snowstorms. I'm looking forward to 00z I think we ll tick slightly east on the American side and west on the European side to meet nicely in the middle where everyone gets nailed.

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Really thinking we will see the NAM/GFS start shifting a bit more S and E with the 0z runs to match Euro. Best snows will not be in western spots like me in NW Chesco...really liking from PNE and northeast to just west of NYC for biggest snow totals outside of New England. We shall see...

I believe chesco I believe....

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

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Just now, The Iceman said:

Im in levittown, lived here all my life. As of now i would plan for 6 inches. Guidance looks great now but March storms have not been kind to lower bucks historically. Even historically good storms fail here so I'm still cautiously optimistic heading into 00z for our area. I'm setting expectations at 6 inches for now because of how many things can go wrong in March last minute. But guidance is showing totals much higher besides the lower resolution gfs. The same gfs which got it's ass handed to it last weekend by the meso s in a similar set up. Not buying its thermals at all but it shows the potential issues of March snowstorms. I'm looking forward to 00z I think we ll tick slightly east on the American side and west on the European side to meet nicely in the middle where everyone gets nailed.

This storm has some dynamics to it and I would think at least 6+. March '93 was awesome, yeah it was a triple phaser but this one won't disappoint. 

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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11 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Easy to criticize an NWS office when you have no clue what is going on within the office. And we do not always wait to the last second to issue a winter storm warning. 

You guys do a great job 99% of the time in a very difficult to forecast region. Plus you guys always have some of the best disco's in the nation. Looking forward big time to tomorrow mornings.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I believe chesco I believe....

In a nice Miller B set up you are in a nice spot....out this way....not so much. But we will have better ratios than east....but me thinks it will not make up the difference. Best snows will be NE from PNE and out through NW NYC burbs

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MGorse

MGorse

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

You guys do a great job 99% of the time in a very difficult to forecast region. Plus you guys always have some of the best disco's in the nation. Looking forward big time to tomorrow mornings.

Thanks, I appreciate it. But my office continues to be short staffed which is taking a toll. 

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MGorse

MGorse

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7 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

In a nice Miller B set up you are in a nice spot....out this way....not so much. But we will have better ratios than east....but me thinks it will not make up the difference. Best snows will be NE from PNE and out through NW NYC burbs

Would you include northwestern Burlington County in that? 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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Thanks, I appreciate it. But my office continues to be short staffed which is taking a toll. 
Would never be able to tell. Seriously, I read discos and such from many Eastern US NWS outlets and you folks are among the finest in the biz. I think I speak for all of us when I say thank you for all you do!
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MGorse

MGorse

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
9 minutes ago, MGorse said:
Thanks, I appreciate it. But my office continues to be short staffed which is taking a toll. 

Would never be able to tell. Seriously, I read discos and such from many Eastern US NWS outlets and you folks are among the finest in the biz. I think I speak for all of us when I say thank you for all you do!

Thanks, as I really appreciate it. We do the best we can with what we have. Friday’s event we were to slow to react and then it was to late. 

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MGorse

MGorse

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2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

LOL I would never tell a professional what to include....but IMHO further N and E the better with this one....

It was a serious question. Just curious if you thought Burlington County especially closer to the river would be included. 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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3km still looks great for the region. I think we're starting to get consensus on this one with the placement of best potential banding. Basically a line from Northern Harford and Cecil in MD, through Chester Co and all the way up to NE PA. 10+" possible from Northern Chester on NE. Kuchera actually very reasonable for 3km.

5a9e00e1b295c_snowfall0306183kmNAM0z.thumb.PNG.ef790c44c7b9aea14ce5909fcd8db4dc.PNG

 

 

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SP

SP

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35 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Thanks, as I really appreciate it. We do the best we can with what we have. Friday’s event we were to slow to react and then it was to late. 

Mike G you are the PHD of discos.  Always enjoyed Tony and Drag too. Wow I am getting old......

When it comes to winter you guys have one tough region to keep pace with and frankly how you keep up with all the micro climo stuff is beyond me. Living at the shore as a wx geek, and spending a lot of time in the poconos, wow two extremes and SO many forecasts dependent upon many variables.  I can drive 3 miles from beach to Allaire or travel from 2100ft to 500ft and experience three or four different conditions in 5 minutes. loving every second of it too.

 

Be well and keep doing your thing, it is VERY appreciated! :mapsnow:

 

 

 

 

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MGorse

MGorse

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3 minutes ago, SP said:

Mike G you are the PHD of discos.  Always enjoyed Tony and Drag too. Wow I am getting old......

When it comes to winter you guys have one tough region to keep pace with and frankly how you keep up with all the micro climo stuff is beyond me. Living at the shore as a wx geek, and spending a lot of time in the poconos, wow two extremes and SO many forecasts dependent upon many variables.  I can drive 3 miles from beach to Allaire or travel from 2100ft to 500ft and experience three or four different conditions in 5 minutes. loving every second of it too.

 

Be well and keep doing your thing, it is VERY appreciated! :mapsnow:

Thank you. :)

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