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March 7-8 possible snow threat

The Iceman

By The Iceman,
in Philadelphia Region

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The Iceman

The Iceman

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All the 18z mesoscale models are snow bombs. I trust them with thermals over gfs any day of the week. Plus I think we aren't done ticking east...just a hunch. 00z should be joyous...expecting the mecs to lock in and everyone be good for 10-14" outside of extreme s and e areas.

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Birdbean

Birdbean

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Posted
36 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Weather World has some rain in SEPA Wednesday and best chance for snow in NEPA.  These guys use to be good don't know what happened it's like the NBC10 girl makes their forecasts LOL

Weather world was the bomb when Bastardi was on in the 80's. With the invention of the internet haven't seen it in many years.

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SmokeEater

SmokeEater

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You guys just NW of the city should be golden, want this thing to tick just enough east to wack us in interior SJ too. Almost a guarantee I won't have to drive to North Jersey on Wednesday, it's almost a given they get it up there.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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Jsdphilly

Jsdphilly

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6 minutes ago, SmokeEater said:

You guys just NW of the city should be golden, want this thing to tick just enough east to wack us in interior SJ too. Almost a guarantee I won't have to drive to North Jersey on Wednesday, it's almost a given they get it up there.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

I am in the very first suburbs NW of the city. Fingers crossed. Jackpot or nothing!

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Newman

Newman

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You know you've been spoiled with snow in the past decade when 10-14" is almost "nothing" to you anymore lol. But seriously this storm combined with another potential one (could be even bigger!) next week is such a good feeling, especially after the long range signals pointing to this exact time period for potential snow. 

Here is EPAWA's forecast map:

snowmap311.png

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SnowLover22

SnowLover22

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Newman said:

You know you've been spoiled with snow in the past decade when 10-14" is almost "nothing" to you anymore lol. But seriously this storm combined with another potential one (could be even bigger!) next week is such a good feeling, especially after the long range signals pointing to this exact time period for potential snow. 

Here is EPAWA's forecast map:

snowmap311.png

The EPAWA map is laughable only 2-4 inches for SEPA. Yeah right. No model has that little.

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Newman

Newman

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2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

The EPAWA map is laughable only 2-4 inches for SEPA. Yeah right. No model has that little.

Well verbatim, the 18z GFS looks very similar to the EPAWA map with little snow in extreme SE PA around Philadelphia. I'm not going to bet where the rain-snow line sets up yet, but you will see a pretty sharp cutoff. Could be right along the coast similar to the NAM or it could be around Philly like the GFS shows.

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SnowLover22

SnowLover22

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6 minutes ago, Newman said:

Well verbatim, the 18z GFS looks very similar to the EPAWA map with little snow in extreme SE PA around Philadelphia. I'm not going to bet where the rain-snow line sets up yet, but you will see a pretty sharp cutoff. Could be right along the coast similar to the NAM or it could be around Philly like the GFS shows.

Considering the NAM is better with thermals and the gfs has a warm bias I tend to think the rain-snow line is closer to the beach’s. Verbatim the gfs shows 34 degrees as rain. Won’t happen like that.

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Violentweatherfan

Violentweatherfan

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21 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

The EPAWA map is laughable only 2-4 inches for SEPA. Yeah right. No model has that little.

I think it might be due to rain and mixing eating up snow totals. Or they feel we will get dry slotted one or the other. Remember this is a Miller B and there will be a screw zone. 

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Akeem the African Dream

Akeem the African Dream

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8 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I think it might be due to rain and mixing eating up snow totals. Or they feel we will get dry slotted one or the other. Remember this is a Miller B and there will be a screw zone. 

save the negativity for ampol dude

im in town so this one is going to happen.  Lehigh valley jackpot on the way 

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Albedoman

Albedoman

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On 3/4/2018 at 12:22 PM, Stormman96 said:

Thats the problem with the philly forum we need some real mets or atleast people that dont hug every model run

I have been sitting in the background reading posts from everyone. I am somewhat a met with no degree in met because they did not have them back then- called physical geographers in atmospheric science.  I am retired now. Most schools like Penn State were the few met schools but more became prominent in the late 60's and 70's. with the discovery of the IBM computer.  Anyway, I have many followers on my facebook page- mostly family and immediate friends and several municipalities in Lehigh County (was a township planner and asst emergency mgr). My uncle is a NWS retired head regional met from the western US.  He was a teacher to me. I was also an air traffic controller in the Navy. I was utilizing and reading weather charts before the GSM was even used. In other words, I rely heavily on yearly analogs and weather history patterns to issue my long range forecasts 2-4 weeks for my friends and family. I have enclosed a copy of recent postings on facebook concerning what we are going through. Many of my other  friends rely on my forecasting including a few snow plow contractors. I would be glad to help you guys with my opinion if you want it and why but I want you to understand that I do rely heavily on my weather pattern experience and not so much on computer modeling, especially the LR models like GFS and CMC being used for forecasting 36-72 hours before the storm event. Maybe you would just want another viewpoint of the evolving storm situation. Any way here is my recent facebook posting summarized for you on the past nor'easter weeks before the event.  Yes I do like to criticize the NWS in my facebook posts but remember, I am an old fart and I was in the air traffic controller in the Navy and I earned that right. My belief is that if it works do not change it.  By the way, I try to explain in layman terms to my friends what is going on. If the wording is not perfect, please go ahead and correct me. The old fart in me is kicking in. Thanks

To my weather friends: Here is a summary of some of my postings you may want to share with your friends with my forecasts as they relate to synopsis of todays nor'easter. Its time to show your friends what media hype will not get you. Notice the date of my first forecast was almost two weeks ago. Thanks for reading my posts

February 23 at 5:54pm · 
to my weather friends: The new weather pattern is starting to evolve. Computer weather models are going crazy as the La Nina pattern disintegrates. I am still calling for some type of nice snowstorm the first week of March 2-7 Until the then lots of rain. The potential storm on the first week of March may bring severe coastal flooding as well.

February 27 at 8:11am · 
to my weather friends: The next two storms will be a snowmaker, severe coastal flooding and heavy rain producing storm events. On cue as called several weeks ago, the first storm is tricky. Its the type of storm where it could be raining its but off in Allentown and puking snow in Jim Thorpe- elevation driven snow event that could even dump snow in the Lehigh Valley before it ends. The second storm on around March 8,could be a more significant snow event for us in the Lehigh Valley as there will be more cold air to work with. Regardless, I expect 1-2 inches of rain for us in the first storm which means flooding in the usual spots like Spring Creek Rd. Watch out for the potholes as they will be filled with water this time. The thing you will notice however is the rain will be wind driven this time, so it will not only look nasty but feel real nasty. The Poconos may see up to a foot of snow is still questionable depending on how cold it gets in the higher elevations. This is a very difficult first storm to call projected snow accumulations for any one place as a couple of degrees and elevation will make all the difference in the world- even in a few miles. Just be watching as the heavy rain could turn to heavy snow in an instant on Friday. By the way, for those who watch weather on TV, you will hear the terms like Miller B storm event and dynamic cooling. MIller B storm event is when the a primary low pressure system in the western PA dies off and transfers it energy to a new low pressure system forming along the Atlantic ocean. Since we are caught in between these two storm centers, it is difficult to predict snowfall amounts. Dynamic cooling or evaporational cooling is when it is raining and the rain cools the atmosphere so much that snow is able to fall all the way to the ground. Most media weathermen have no idea what these terms mean but trust me, they will will play it up anyway. The people along the coast could see historic flooding from the high tides and wind driven rains from the oceans if the secondary low pressure system that forms along NJ takes over more quickly. This can also give a better chance to see accumulating snow.

February 28, 2018
to my weather friends: On cue, the storm is coming with high wind gusts ( 40 mph +) , heavy rain and maybe heavy snow. I am disappointed with Mt Holly as they have not issued a winter storm watch for us in the LV even though we have met the criteria IMHO with three consecutive runs from the NAM short range model for 6+ snow. They have stated in their discussion that they do not believe in their own model. God I miss our local airport NWO weather location. Forecasting from southern NJ just does not cut it for me for the LV as we have our own unique geographical weather conditions.

Yesterday
I told you so attitude is coming out with this post that the traveling public will not be warned in time and there will be many accidents on the road. Why is it that when there is a significant storm event, they wait until the last second to pull out a winter storm warning but are deathly afraid to put out a winter storm watch? My wife say they should call a winter storm possibility rather than a watch as many are confused with the term. I agree. In the old days we called them travelers advisories. I think we should go back to them because once one was issued most people had the common sense to stay home. Anyway, prepare for the high winds and possible power outages in areas along with the local flooding areas including basements as the ground is still saturated.

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MGorse

MGorse

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48 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

The EPAWA map is laughable only 2-4 inches for SEPA. Yeah right. No model has that little.

The 2-4 area is barely into southeast PA. They have 4-8 or higher for the bulk of that region. 

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MGorse

MGorse

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Just now, DiehardFF said:

What do you think for the lower bucks region? We planning to staff the firehouses due to the predicted snowfall. Leaning towards NAM/ECM or GFS?

 

Thank you

Sorry, but I have been off for three days and not fully following the model guidance. 

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