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March 7-8 possible snow threat


The Iceman

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the 12z cmc at 54 is identical in low position to the 12 gfs but the gfs definitely does something odd with the precip shield like it is a hurricane look:

gfs 54

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

notice how the precip shield is weird and disjointed not what you would expect in a strengthening storm, compared to the cmc now at hour 54

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

notice that the heaviest precip is pouring northwest of the low like you would expect in a cold core system but perhaps a bit too close too the low. Also, a large part of yellow that is "rain" on the cmc is actually very heavy wet snow almost certainly. The only reason it shows as rain is because it has surface temps at 34-35 which is unlikely with those rate. the surface low itself is the same exact position on both models and same exact strength but the outcomes are radically different. IMO the cmc is more in line with how a strengthening miller B's precip shield looks. 

 

gfs snow map

gfs_asnow_neus_13.png

 

cmc

gem_asnow_neus_12.png

 

imo a precip shield with the expanse of the gfs but the distribution of the cmc seems most likely meaning I don't believe the LV gets shafted like the CMC. Honestly this is a great look at 48 hours out. Most of us can handle a shift either way at this point. The cmc coming on board is huge. euro is on an island now at the moment.

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1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

Would really like to see the Euro take a step in the right direction at 12Z. It's not quite The King it once was after all the "upgrades", but I'd prefer to have it on my side. Fingers crossed!

agreed, I think it is unlikely to completely fold and shift completely but a step towards the gfs/nam/cmc would work like you said. If it holds serve, I will still have some pause even if it is all alone in its thinking. At the very least, it would signal this one is going to be further east than the current guidance is thinking at least imo euro is just so very rarely wrong by that much in that time frame.

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31 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

the 12z cmc at 54 is identical in low position to the 12 gfs but the gfs definitely does something odd with the precip shield like it is a hurricane look:

gfs 54

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

notice how the precip shield is weird and disjointed not what you would expect in a strengthening storm, compared to the cmc now at hour 54

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

notice that the heaviest precip is pouring northwest of the low like you would expect in a cold core system but perhaps a bit too close too the low. Also, a large part of yellow that is "rain" on the cmc is actually very heavy wet snow almost certainly. The only reason it shows as rain is because it has surface temps at 34-35 which is unlikely with those rate. the surface low itself is the same exact position on both models and same exact strength but the outcomes are radically different. IMO the cmc is more in line with how a strengthening miller B's precip shield looks. 

 

gfs snow map

gfs_asnow_neus_13.png

 

cmc

gem_asnow_neus_12.png

 

imo a precip shield with the expanse of the gfs but the distribution of the cmc seems most likely meaning I don't believe the LV gets shafted like the CMC. Honestly this is a great look at 48 hours out. Most of us can handle a shift either way at this point. The cmc coming on board is huge. euro is on an island now at the moment.

Great post, also note that the GFS might be showing some convective feedback in the SE quadrant. The thermals and precip are in line with classic GFS bias. The track looks good.  A few ticks SE and everyone wins.

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Longtime lurker, first time poster. Confused so far with the thermals on this storm... Does central/eastern Monmouth have any actual chance at a decent snow out of this system? Seems like yes with a little tick East...but Mt. Holly is keeping the WSW north and west (though in their discussion there's clearly a lot that can happen).

Watched through this forum a lot over the past couple years, my go-to place as storms approach. This one though has me more perplexed...which is weird because it seems more like a classic kind of set up.

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1 minute ago, Xtremegk said:

Longtime lurker, first time poster. Confused so far with the thermals on this storm... Does central/eastern Monmouth have any actual chance at a decent snow out of this system? Seems like yes with a little tick East...but Mt. Holly is keeping the WSW north and west (though in their discussion there's clearly a lot that can happen).

Watched through this forum a lot over the past couple years, my go-to place as storms approach. This one though has me more perplexed...which is weird because it seems more like a classic kind of set up.

IMO everybody in NJ still has a chance of significant accumulations - too volatile a setup a few miles either way with the track and intensity makes a big difference

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Just now, Xtremegk said:

Longtime lurker, first time poster. Confused so far with the thermals on this storm... Does central/eastern Monmouth have any actual chance at a decent snow out of this system? Seems like yes with a little tick East...but Mt. Holly is keeping the WSW north and west (though in their discussion there's clearly a lot that can happen).

Watched through this forum a lot over the past couple years, my go-to place as storms approach. This one though has me more perplexed...which is weird because it seems more like a classic kind of set up.

Depends where in monmouth county that you are located. If you are near the shore, thermals are going to like be too warm and there will be a significant amount of rain, inland though I think the heavy rates should cool you guys enough. funny enough on the cmc and ukmet you guys are the jackpot. I think mt holly will have all se pa in a winter storm watch and monmouth/middlesex/mercer/burlington in nj as well. pretty much everyone besides the shore is sitting pretty at the moment for a 6-12" storm with possibly more in spots.

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4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

UKMET is a huge hit for pretty much all.. low tracks further west than cmc but further east than gfs/nam... honestly I think this is where we end up...guidance falling in line for a SE PA blasting. I really think all will do better than last friday with this event.

 

PA_000-072_0000.gif

Hi, The Iceman - I appreciate your analysis a lot! Very good work. It could be more exciting than the last one. Although the snow was quite heavy, it looked like I managed only a couple inches - maybe a little more since the wind drifted everything. Might have been in a thermal hot spot or something. 

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Depends where in monmouth county that you are located. If you are near the shore, thermals are going to like be too warm and there will be a significant amount of rain, inland though I think the heavy rates should cool you guys enough. funny enough on the cmc and ukmet you guys are the jackpot. I think mt holly will have all se pa in a winter storm watch and monmouth/middlesex/mercer/burlington in nj as well. pretty much everyone besides the shore is sitting pretty at the moment for a 6-12" storm with possibly more in spots.

 

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO everybody in NJ still has a chance of significant accumulations - too volatile a setup a few miles either way with the track and intensity makes a big difference

Many thanks to the both of you... I had a feeling we'd still be in play with this one, but I had seen some (in another "local" region on this site) also writing us off completely along the Shore. I'm about 10 miles inland, right in that weird area where not every coastal rain/inland snow plays out the same (sometimes we get mostly rain, sometimes we get several inches). I pity those who have to forecast my area.

I work in New Brunswick, so it's looking like it'll be an interesting commute. Again.

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1 minute ago, Xtremegk said:

Longtime lurker, first time poster. Confused so far with the thermals on this storm... Does central/eastern Monmouth have any actual chance at a decent snow out of this system? Seems like yes with a little tick East...but Mt. Holly is keeping the WSW north and west (though in their discussion there's clearly a lot that can happen).

Watched through this forum a lot over the past couple years, my go-to place as storms approach. This one though has me more perplexed...which is weird because it seems more like a classic kind of set up.

Welcome! I would wait and see what Mt. Holly comes up with later this afternoon. Cold air is not lacking for this event (compared to Friday), the details still being sorted out have more to do with the track of the coastal low and the transfer of energy from the primary to the coastal, which has been trending south, which we like. The mesoscale details, banding, etc., will shift around too. If anything, I would think the low will be a little further off the coast (like the NAM 3k but minus the loop-de-loop) which would help NJ, but who knows - it's the weather and that's one of the things that makes it interesting!

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9 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Hi, The Iceman - I appreciate your analysis a lot! Very good work. It could be more exciting than the last one. Although the snow was quite heavy, it looked like I managed only a couple inches - maybe a little more since the wind drifted everything. Might have been in a thermal hot spot or something. 

Thanks for the kind words! I only managed 1" in the last storm most of that in the first 2 hours and then had white rain all day as the heaviest echoes mostly missed us. 10 miles NW of me in Newtown though got 3-4 inches with more as you went further NW as they got into heavier banding even though we had nearly identical thermals. But there are many things different with this storm than with the last storm. First the airmass going into the storm isn't going to be torching like fridays storm and we won't have had an inch of rain fall before hand before the change over. Some may start as rain especially near 95 but i'd expect a changeover fairly quickly. While this storm will likely still be a wet snow it should have a much easier time sticking than on Friday for these reasons. But also like friday, in the heavy bands thermals won't matter. It will stick to everything. This storm has a longer duration of heavy rates and much better thermals leading up to it even if it is still on the border. I think white rain won't really be a worry with the intensity being progged unless you are fringed by the banding. 

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Even the JMA looks to be on board for a big se pa hit. 12z runs dropping bomb after bomb on most of us at 48 hours out and it's like talking to a wall in here :lol: where is everyone?? 

For some of us in Delaware County the answer may be "waiting for Comcast to restore internet service".  Mine came back three minutes ago, after a three-day outage.  (Guess which website I went to first? :^)

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NWS will no doubt update with some additional Winter Storm Watches to the South around 330pm or so. I noticed this morning they had my point and click with 3" to 6" of snow with no WSW while up in Montgomery County 1" to 3" but a WSW...I would expect the Euro to come west a bit with the 12z run....but it will likely not come back to either the GFS and certainly not the NAM.

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Latest 12z GFS/NAM blend via WXSIM for NW Chester County has snow arriving Tuesday evening with moderate snow by 8pm temp at 35 degrees. Heavy snow by midnight temp at 32 degrees. At 7am there is 3" of snow on the ground with Heavy snow by 9am. Accumulations reach 10" by 1pm and we finish up by 6pm with around 17" of snow. Temps during the day will stay between 30.5 to 31.5 - total liquid equivalent 1.92"

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EURO bends the knee towards the GFS and NAM. I am going with a blend between the EURO/UK/CMC and GFS/NAM...first call map coming within the hour but the euro coming on board has put me all in on this storm. we still need to watch thermals from 95  S and E but right now it is looking very very good for everyone but the shore.

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I imagine it's not done correcting west either
 
I hope not. Berks is sitting on the wrong side of the fringe. But with how far the Euro just caved it doesn't hold much weight to me personally. I think it will correct again tonight and at 12z tomorrow.

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk

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well here's my first call with current guidance at the moment. sorry for the crudeness, literally was done with the snipping tool at work :lol: I am very confident now we are going to see a high impact slow moving noreaster that will feature gusty winds and heavy snow. It is already evident 1+" qpf liquid equivalent will fall. I have pretty much taken the middle of current guidance and right now that is where I believe we ultimately end up. We still have 24-30 hours left of ticks so this can definitely shift in either direction. I believe that 12z guidance will be enough for mt holly to pull the trigger on winter storm watches for everyone except south and east counties. There is a pretty healthy consensus now that most of the area will see winter storm warning snows. I understand mt holly being cautious especially after last march's "blizzard" fiasco.

 

5a9d920bd4120_wedsstorm.PNG.668dec270b3bb3b6cf58a31a78b5cdd1.PNG

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13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

well here's my first call with current guidance at the moment. sorry for the crudeness, literally was done with the snipping tool at work :lol: I am very confident now we are going to see a high impact slow moving noreaster that will feature gusty winds and heavy snow. It is already evident 1+" qpf liquid equivalent will fall. I have pretty much taken the middle of current guidance and right now that is where I believe we ultimately end up. We still have 24-30 hours left of ticks so this can definitely shift in either direction. I believe that 12z guidance will be enough for mt holly to pull the trigger on winter storm watches for everyone except south and east counties. There is a pretty healthy consensus now that most of the area will see winter storm warning snows. I understand mt holly being cautious especially after last march's "blizzard" fiasco.

 

5a9d920bd4120_wedsstorm.PNG.668dec270b3bb3b6cf58a31a78b5cdd1.PNG

As always placement is key....you could likely take that map and shift it east or west 25 miles as the next runs occur.  I was thinking along the same just a bit more bullish on the coastal.  Seen many of these bring rain to the first mile or so of the coast, white rain as well, but once you get to the GSP line and 195 its like a switch was thrown and totals jump with every mile west. It would be a slushy rain at my office along rt 34 and a mile west at my house 6-10".  So I would pull your 4-6 line east to the letters W C I E and A for each town south from middletown. Cheers ice

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29 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

well here's my first call with current guidance at the moment. sorry for the crudeness, literally was done with the snipping tool at work :lol: I am very confident now we are going to see a high impact slow moving noreaster that will feature gusty winds and heavy snow. It is already evident 1+" qpf liquid equivalent will fall. I have pretty much taken the middle of current guidance and right now that is where I believe we ultimately end up. We still have 24-30 hours left of ticks so this can definitely shift in either direction. I believe that 12z guidance will be enough for mt holly to pull the trigger on winter storm watches for everyone except south and east counties. There is a pretty healthy consensus now that most of the area will see winter storm warning snows. I understand mt holly being cautious especially after last march's "blizzard" fiasco.

 

5a9d920bd4120_wedsstorm.PNG.668dec270b3bb3b6cf58a31a78b5cdd1.PNG

Looks like im in a great spot in quakertown.  Shift east or west 25 miles an im still in bullseye 

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