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Rjay

March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Honestly, not much utility IMO in the short range models so far. None of them had a dryslot invading into Long Island today and a megaband parking over central NJ. They had an axis of much heavier precip down here. I think snow will redevelop from the city east as the pivot looks to finally be happening, but the band looks to be weakening a bit. 

Really poor job by the short range models out here.  

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This storm is a good example of why you shouldn't simply trust the model snow totals. The cold was marginal with this system. The heat island effect and daytime March sun angle tipped it for the city. 20-30 miles outside the city there are reports of a 12"+ though

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I officially declare this one of the most challenging forecasts the last few days that we seen in a while. 

Already lost an inch and a half of snow in about 30 mins 

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Short term models can give a false sense of hope. Nothing replaces experience and pattern recognition.  

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19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Already lost an inch and a half of snow in about 30 mins 

Today was actually close to the norm for snowfall forecasts during the 70's and 80's. Many times you didn't know how things would go down until nowcast time. 

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1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

no accumulating snow...anything else is rain in my book

It's crazy you didn't have any accumulations.   

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Can anybody explain What exactly caused that mega band to just stall and produce like that over NJ? Forcing, low placement anything like that? Would like to have a better understanding and idea for future storms 

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2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Can anybody explain What exactly caused that mega band to just stall and produce like that over NJ? Forcing, low placement anything like that? Would like to have a better understanding and idea for future storms 

Sometimes it’s just quasi random.  The band can organize anywhere within a range of maybe 50 miles or so and if you’re outside the band, there’s subsidence and you’re SOL.

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9 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Can anybody explain What exactly caused that mega band to just stall and produce like that over NJ? Forcing, low placement anything like that? Would like to have a better understanding and idea for future storms 

Not sure but the 700mb frontogenesis just sat there.  The storm made a turn due north after heading east for a while.  

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Even here I had a couple of inches I think.

Still snowing here but sounds like it's raining as the snow melts rapidly off of everything. It's down to 32. 

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Just now, Snowshack said:

7” otg in Wading River.  Still accumulating.  Pretty nice surprise, started the day think we might pick up a slushy couple of inches on back end. 

Haha awesome. 

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On 3/6/2018 at 1:23 PM, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

sketched_5a9edc250d15b.png

How did I do?

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1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Pretty horribly for SEPA. You had 1-3. SEPA got 8-12.

I knew the risk there, and I was worried about the North shore of LI.

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Haha awesome. 
You know, I was just thinking about how the models missed the dry slot for the area. I think they did well with the storm and it closing off, I think they misinterpreted the dry conveyer belt (DCB). Looking at radar now, it appears the CCB is developing as it begins to move (now about bm), I think perhaps we saw the initial occlusion and stall (I have been working so I have not been able to keep up exactly with the storm) of the initial LP right off the NJ coast. This occlusion allowed the DCB to force up into LI before the Eastern most SLP took over (now) and began to blossom, hence the CCB developing overhead.

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I'm not sure it will happen or not... but I can't help but wonder if that band over cat tries to wrap back into parts of LI here, or at least connects with those bands currently over LI... certainly looks like it's trying

 

to clarify, I mean the areas between Bridgeport and Huntington, further east it's already doing so

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16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

How did I do?

Eastern LI definitely busted high... but I don't think many saw that coming. Even @Crankywxguy who was among the coldest and furthest east, was probably low out here. 

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24 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
1 hour ago, Rjay said:
Haha awesome. 

You know, I was just thinking about how the models missed the dry slot for the area. I think they did well with the storm and it closing off, I think they misinterpreted the dry conveyer belt (DCB). Looking at radar now, it appears the CCB is developing as it begins to move (now about bm), I think perhaps we saw the initial occlusion and stall (I have been working so I have not been able to keep up exactly with the storm) of the initial LP right off the NJ coast. This occlusion allowed the DCB to force up into LI before the Eastern most SLP took over (now) and began to blossom, hence the CCB developing overhead.

It's going to be east of me by you.  While the other one decays to my west.  Lol

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1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Can anybody explain What exactly caused that mega band to just stall and produce like that over NJ? Forcing, low placement anything like that? Would like to have a better understanding and idea for future storms 

There are people who devote their life's work to figuring out what makes mesoscale snow bands tick. If don't mind a little heavier reading, the NWS/SUNY Albany CSTAR research is pretty interesting: http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/CAP_Projects/Project4/index.htm

Snow's tapering off here, which means the meat of the storm lasted about 7 hours. What I wouldn't give to see one of these dynamic bombs stick around a while instead of always wham, bam, thank you ma'am.

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It's going to be east of me by you.  While the other one decays to my west.  Lol
Lol. I mean, if I was in control.. I'd give you snow also.

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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Lol. I mean, if I was in control.. I'd give you snow also. emoji23.png

Lol it's all good.  I'll never whine and I'm always happy for the other areas that are getting the goods .  I do get frustrated though. 

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