USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Changing the forecast is okay, it's more the way they do it. As in, why were they so intransigent for March '17? Why would they lower totals today based off a couple runs of the NAM, when other guidance still supported the higher totals? This isn't to bash NWS either, it's just that they seem erratic at times. Because guidance did not. When in doubt go lower. Last year Upton caught a considerable amount of slack because everyone listened and nothing happened. It's the proverbial crying wolf, a similar effect as Irene before Sandy. I also know that many emergency operations managers and heads of various agencies such as DOT raised absolute h*ll for the blown forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The GFS is a big, steaming pile of useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I'm convinced the GFS would forecast 50 degrees in an industrial freezer at this point. For example, with the low moving into the Cape and northwesterly winds, the GFS has a surface temperature of 39 degrees on the north shore of LI. Yeah, no. Hard time believing that's not more in the way of snow over NYC and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, weatherbear5 said: I'm convinced the GFS would forecast 50 degrees in an industrial freezer at this point. For example, with the low moving into the Cape and northwesterly winds, the GFS has a surface temperature of 39 degrees on the north shore of LI. Yeah, no. Hard time believing that's not more in the way of snow over NYC and LI Forget the clown maps and track the mid level lows instead. If they go SE, it’s a good sign. If you’re NW of the 850 and 700 lows, you should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Cmc crushes NYC and LI with a huge ccb band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: I'm convinced the GFS would forecast 50 degrees in an industrial freezer at this point. For example, with the low moving into the Cape and northwesterly winds, the GFS has a surface temperature of 39 degrees on the north shore of LI. Yeah, no. Hard time believing that's not more in the way of snow over NYC and LI Looking at it without BL temps and ptype maps, its a snowstorm on the GFS for a Lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: Forget the clown maps and track the mid level lows instead. If they go SE, it’s a good sign. If you’re NW of the 850 and 700 lows, you should be good. That's the gist of it, as we've discussed ad nauseum the GFS's low level thermal profiles are just atrocious. Like the past 3 months of Islanders hockey atrocious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Cmc crushes NYC and LI with a huge can band. CCB? Or are you feeling the Canadian love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 And it makes sense there would be a CCB band with a closing off 500 and 700 low. That transports higher level moisture to the west and feeds such a band. If those lows go SE of you, there’s a good shot at cashing in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: CCB? Or are you feeling the Canadian love? Maybe he's a fan of Warhol paintings? as per the GFS, you're absolutely right. Mid level temps are much cooler. 900 and below make little to no sense. The important part was it shifted way southeast and was colder aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 According to New England thread, UKMET may have shifted a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GGEM has over 2"QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: According to New England thread, UKMET may have shifted a little east. Out already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Playing devils advocate a bit bc I don't buy the GFS temps either, but could we be downplaying the warming due to SL track? It comes up the coast more before going east than in our typical big hits...thinking about this from a NYC and LI perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: GGEM has over 2"QPF for NYC Christ on a bike, it even has at least 12" for Staten Island & JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, PuraVida said: Playing devils advocate a bit bc I don't buy the GFS temps either, but could we be downplaying the warming due to SL track? It comes up the coast more before going east than in our typical big hits...thinking about this from a NYC and LI perspective Toss them as far as you can throw them. They busted 9 degrees too high for me last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Yep. GEM map on WxBell is amazing for NYC...awful for coastal Monmouth south & east of Jones Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said: Christ on a bike, it even has at least 12" for Staten Island & JFK Yeah I think I just saw JC ride by as well on his way over the Goethals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Forecast totals are about to go way up if these amounts are accurate. The potential for widespread tree damage and power outages is a huge conern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Off-topic but the cmc and gfs has a big storm next week. CMC is very close with a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Thinking 10-16” IMBY might be too low. I could see 18-24” here in isolated spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Mark McIntyre said: Yep. GEM map on WxBell is amazing for NYC...awful for coastal Monmouth south & east of Jones Beach Yep. I still think further east on LI has more work to do to overcome the initial surge of warm air. There's a good amount of SE flow aloft that comes from the 850 low being so far west initially. That looks a little worse than the RGEM, and makes me think early to mid afternoon is the crunch time where I am to see if the rain line crashes in or stays just off the beach. It'll still be really close. 850s on most models so far stay below zero or come very close here, so it might stay snow. The real winner so far is most of NYC-just a crushing coming in so far tonight. Could be well over a foot for much of the city. I think there's a real shot at schools being closed overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Off-topic but the cmc and gfs has a big storm next week. CMC is very close with a huge storm. Is it snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep. I still think further east on LI has more work to do to overcome the initial surge of warm air. There's a good amount of SE flow aloft that comes from the 850 low being so far west initially. That looks a little worse than the RGEM, and makes me think early to mid afternoon is the crunch time where I am to see if the rain line crashes in or stays just off the beach. It'll still be really close. 850s on most models so far stay below zero or come very close here, so it might stay snow. The real winner so far is most of NYC-just a crushing coming in so far tonight. Could be well over a foot for much of the city. I think there's a real shot at schools being closed overnight. Yep the 850 and 700 lows are what I'm monitoring. So far they're staying well southeast of Staten Island so I'm hopeful. And agreed about the early/mid afternoon being crunch time. My mother is a paraprofessional and I really really hope they make the call to close schools. They should have done so earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 My final call 12 inches for central park south queens 22 inches by rockaways. Sussex 27 inches Bronx 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thinking 10-16” IMBY might be too low. I could see 18-24” here in isolated spots. You'd be in the spot for that if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thinking 10-16” IMBY might be too low. I could see 18-24” here in isolated spots. I like your maps, updating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said: Yep the 850 and 700 lows are what I'm monitoring. So far they're staying well southeast of Staten Island so I'm hopeful. And agreed about the early/mid afternoon being crunch time. My mother is a paraprofessional and I really really hope they make the call to close schools. They should have done so earlier. The paras are the most under-appreciated people in the schools. Paid peanuts and asked to help with the neediest kids. As a case manager, I try to get the best paras to my kids. Makes a big difference in their progress. I can't imagine given this new info that they won't reconsider closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, sferic said: Is it snow? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 0z hi res rgem has over a foot for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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