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Rjay

March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

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Can we ban anybody that does hourly updates here of the HRRR ?

anyone logical of meteorology knows that model changes it’s mind every hour.

When I see those posts...just reminds of some 8 year old kid that took too much red bull .

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4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The latest run is so far west in the end of the 36hr extended version....Albany dry slots

The 18hr POS not the HRRRRRRRRRRR X 

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The latest run is so far west in the end of the 36hr extended version....Albany dry slots
Wait... Does that mean it goes so far west that another lp develops on the trailing front and gives us snow?
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No one can doubt there will be snow in the air with these vertical dynamics and a dew point of 28 possible in NYC.  But 2M temps. never get to an actual 32---just as in the previous two snowfalls, this will be a 'self-cleaner' in the City, nothing left behind.

 Cobb Snow has nothing for the NAM or GFS now, never did for the GFS and the NAM is 3" mid-storm, with a self wash away----it was 20" yesterday for us.

Hey, even Oct. 29, 2011, left some snow behind briefly.

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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches.

I fully agree with this. Where ever the rain snow line sets up will delineate the low and high totals. Using past storms that’s around the LIE. So you could have 3” in wantagh and 12” in Great neck  

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I fully agree with this. Where ever the rain snow line sets up will delineate the low and high totals. Using past storms that’s around the LIE. So you could have 3” in wantagh and 12” in Great neck  

Interesting these divides roughly form near our highways; in NJ the TPK seems to often be the dividing line; others might be 287 or 78 depending on the storm. Or maybe it's just our need as humans to see patterns. But the NWS also uses these; in this storm they are referencing the east side of the TPK as being on the lower end, for example.

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20 minutes ago, North and West said:


what is this signaling?

yup, thundersnow. CAPE of 237 is nice with that amount of omega, but 700-500 lapse rates are pretty astounding at 7.9 C/km. it's very close to mixing in pellets, but that is technically a snow profile. 

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Interesting these divides roughly form near our highways; in NJ the TPK seems to often be the dividing line; others might be 287 or 78 depending on the storm. Or maybe it's just our need as humans to see patterns. But the NWS also uses these; in this storm they are referencing the east side of the TPK as being on the lower end, for example.
Science does revolve around patterns....
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Driving home heading west this evening, at the 287/78 junction, I had a 43F reading with rain/snow shower. I think that tells the tale of our atmosphere for this storm. Clearly very cold aloft.

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5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:
Interesting these divides roughly form near our highways; in NJ the TPK seems to often be the dividing line; others might be 287 or 78 depending on the storm. Or maybe it's just our need as humans to see patterns. But the NWS also uses these; in this storm they are referencing the east side of the TPK as being on the lower end, for example.

Science does revolve around patterns....

Indeed. My question as a social scientist would be is there a relationship between these things. Were some highways developed because conditions were more passable during certain weather? And has your thinking changed at all on this particular storm.....

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Indeed. My question as a social scientist would be is there a relationship between these things. Were some highways developed because conditions were more passable during certain weather? And has your thinking changed at all on this particular storm.....

Some roads might've been old game trails. Some of Boston's old roads were cow paths originally. At a broader level, you could argue our country might not exist today but for the timely intervention of weather. If dense fog had not allowed the surrounded and vastly outgunned Washington to escape from Long Island with his army, we might still be singing "Rule, Britannia."

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yup, thundersnow. CAPE of 237 is nice with that amount of omega, but 700-500 lapse rates are pretty astounding at 7.9 C/km. it's very close to mixing in pellets, but that is technically a snow profile. 

Thank you; does it indicate where it’s favorable to occur?


.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Some roads might've been old game trails. Some of Boston's old roads were cow paths originally. At a broader level, you could argue our country might not exist today but for the timely intervention of weather. If dense fog had not allowed the surrounded and vastly outgunned Washington to escape from Long Island with his army, we might still be singing "Rule, Britannia."

Great points! I think one of the retired accuweather mets ( Abrams? ) was going to write a book about that. Brian Fagan has written on the little Ice Age and Long Summer periods. And some of the game trails developed by following trails made by game looking for salt sources. The Mongols were headed to Japan but wiped out by the monsoon ( and inadequate ships ). What are you expecting up your way from this set up?

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