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Rjay

March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

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5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

Looking at Pivotal...the RGEM is colder than its run at 0Z and 6Z - but not as snowy east of the city

It’s actually better further east if you compare clown maps.

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RGEM puts almost all of Long Island into the heavy snows. It was city-west on 6z. This is per TT.

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13 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

On the B&W maps it appears, as compared to the 0Z RGEM, the mid levels centers are further west. Trend aint our friend

RGEM is a big hit for most of the sub forum

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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West/east only matters to an extent with this one, it could be going over the Delmarva/S NJ, but at some point it is going to make a hard cut right due to the Neg NAO, and what latitude that happens is very important. I think from what I am seeing, as long as you are North of around the Raritan River and west of the east river you are in pretty good shape. 

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1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

too high.

How is it too high? Compare the maps I posted. You think ratios will be less than 5:1?

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I strongly advise against using the Kuchera method for this system.

You're not right.  The Kuchera method normally pumps up ratios and inflates accumulations.  As you can see by the snowmaps posted above, the Kuchera method may actually be useful here, as it may take into account the LOWER snow ratios this storm may produce.

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3 minutes ago, Blizz said:

10:1

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I understand that ratios are actually lower with the Kucheara method, however I actually believe that even 10:1 for this storm is too low for inland areas. Whomever gets under that intense lift will see a period of 3-4" per hour rates, although that shouldn't persist over any one location for more than a few hours. The storm is somewhat of a fast mover once the actual SLP get here, however we have several hours of WAA precip before that.

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Just now, mike1984 said:

Snowstorms are usually big hits. 

 

Ok, I'll buy that. Just thought of a big hit as being a foot or more, which seemed to be on the table with these models last night. 4-8 is rather run of the mill, especially if it's closer to 4 ( it is around 6 for me on that map, and I almost never reach the high end ) which is nice given the time of year.

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Why, too high or too low?

 

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

too high.

 

1 minute ago, Blizz said:

How is it too high? Compare the maps I posted. You think ratios will be less than 5:1?

See my later post, I believe that 10:1 is too low in a lot of areas. For example I find it hard to believe that only 9-10" would fall over most of the interior with well over 1" LE.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I understand that ratios are actually lower with the Kucheara method, however I actually believe that even 10:1 for this storm is too low for inland areas. Whomever gets under that intense lift will see a period of 3-4" per hour rates, although that shouldn't persist over any one location for more than a few hours. The storm is somewhat of a fast mover once the actual SLP get here, however we have several hours of WAA precip before that.

Excellent post

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I understand that ratios are actually lower with the Kucheara method, however I actually believe that even 10:1 for this storm is too low for inland areas. Whomever gets under that intense lift will see a period of 3-4" per hour rates, although that shouldn't persist over any one location for more than a few hours. The storm is somewhat of a fast mover once the actual SLP get here, however we have several hours of WAA precip before that.

Fine.  Then use the Kuchera maps for the NYC area and the 10:1 maps for your area.  Both maps may have some use in a snowstorm like this.  It may not be a one size fits all.

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2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

?

A big hit produces a storm. 

A storm is never going to be from a small hit. Wouldn’t be a storm 

just my opinion. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Ok, I'll buy that. Just thought of a big hit as being a foot or more, which seemed to be on the table with these models last night. 4-8 is rather run of the mill, especially if it's closer to 4 ( it is around 6 for me on that map, and I almost never reach the high end ) which is nice given the time of year.

Still a powerful storm..as you say for this time of year as well. 

Areas will see close to or exceed a foot. That’s a big storm, imo. Just not as widespread as models have been indicating.

 

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2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

You do realize that in 150 years of record keeping that nyc has gotten 12” or more in 36 storms the regency bias here is unreal

This argument was settled awhile ago. Not going to rehash it. But Unc W would disagree with that ( now he may not have gone back as far TBH). I think you mean regional bias, and I will plead guilty to that. 

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at 24hrs is inland over the Delmarva...sighhhhhh
That could actually be positive for the tri state. As was mentioned by a couple persons yesterday... An earlier touch with land would mean a quicker phase thus quicker occlusion. This in turn keeps the area colder and the end shunt farther to our south.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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