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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Let’s see a photo 10 miles south in the Bronx for the observation thread.

 

Im telling you, moderate snow, negative accumulation.

That is live. Not same old BS.

 

And yes, it is same story as last storm.

 

You may not like the observation...but it is a real time observation.

 

You may like the looks of that radar, but I don't

 

Im not stupid enough to say that it wont fill in, but as present, I do not see it happening

 

 

 

58D29473-46E2-4F42-9FDD-C56E9D58880F.jpeg

091E777F-3F1E-4D18-8B0D-DB4EDD4E00EA.jpeg

Radar is great though...use NWS products for more accuracy:

20180307_112516-756x1008.thumb.jpg.4e074de96060fa32898b42678cb928d1.jpg

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17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

this honestly reminds me a lot of a plains or denver blizzard: summery lapse rates, elevated convection feeding the ccb, rapid strengthening and occlusion. i would not be surprised to see thunderstorms drag the whole system slightly farther east of what's currently being modeled. otherwise, i have increasing confidence this will verify as a blizzard in parts of jersey, long island (bk/qns included) and the rest of southern new england. 

ice-dragon-1-970.jpg.c16d49b281c4013f79b7ce17b64b02fe.jpg

keep talking dirty to me

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Guys, please stop with the bickering and worrying about a bust. Take that to banter or better yet nowhere and keep it to yourself. 

And no one should be worried about a bust yet, NO ONE. The real action doesn't even start for the city and especially points east until 3-4pm. That's when dynamics from the upper air low will cause massive lift and heavy snow areawide. The CCB is modeled everywhere to take over and pound places that are rain or wet now, and it could come down at 2-3"/hour. The dynamics haven't really gotten going yet, and that's why ground temps have risen and rain/white rain is falling. That will change in the next 2-3 hours. 

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5 minutes ago, seanick said:

Take this crap to the banter. 

Discussing radar trends isn't banter.

Replying to the 1/27 reference, the cooling is dynamically driven so expect snow in heavier bands and rain in lighter bands. The 850s are plenty cold at -5C, but the surface is quite warm. That will be minimized as the higher rates move in.

1/27 also had a good bit of thundersnow, which we are expecting today. The convective look on radar is similar, although surface temps are probably a hair warmer due to time of year.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You guys are hilarious. This is playing out so far exactly as modeled.

I dunno. Up here in Tarrytown, it's 34 degrees and not sticking. I would have expected an inch or two at least already based on the forecasts that I heard. But let's see if the column cools down and we see an accumulating snow this afternoon. Theoretically, with 2" per hour ... even if the accums start at 1PM, we could see 10"-12". You guys would know much better than I how to interpret the radar and whether it will fill in.

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vis.thumb.png.957397f4962a8ca9486bbc8abca29356.png

on vis loops, its pretty easy to see the 700 low over DE (evident on radar too) and 2 surface lows.  the surface warm sector is to the SE of the farthest east low. the upper trof is going neg tilt now and there are early signs of the 500 low taking shape over virginia (look at WV loops for that). there may be some dry slot issues on long island for a time, but it should fill in quickly by 3-4PM. 

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1 minute ago, NYCGreg said:

I don't when the short term models run, but does anyone know what they are showing?

Most recent HRRR I saw (15z) shows heavy snow starting around 2-3pm area wide, and snow continuing until maybe 10-11pm. About an inch liquid falls in the city/LI as snow. The peak could be a few inches per hour especially around 4-6pm. 

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20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Just had a burst of huge parachutes it’s here!!!

It feels like we have two observation threads, both threads should be combined.

It switched to all snow here around 11:45 AM temp dropped 2 degrees and skies got really dark!

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Most recent HRRR I saw (15z) shows heavy snow starting around 2-3pm area wide, and snow continuing until maybe 10-11pm. About an inch liquid falls in the city/LI as snow. The peak could be a few inches per hour especially around 4-6pm. 

Looking forward to some 3"/hr rates and thundersnow, great afternoon snow should be perfect for photo ops!

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Most recent HRRR I saw (15z) shows heavy snow starting around 2-3pm area wide, and snow continuing until maybe 10-11pm. About an inch liquid falls in the city/LI as snow. The peak could be a few inches per hour especially around 4-6pm. 

It's continuing to show that wild looking 50 dbz convective CCB approaching Long Beach later.

rad7.thumb.gif.fb084796ca7f994f9dc27abe30529bad.gif

 

 

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13 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Discussing radar trends isn't banter.

Replying to the 1/27 reference, the cooling is dynamically driven so expect snow in heavier bands and rain in lighter bands. The 850s are plenty cold at -5C, but the surface is quite warm. That will be minimized as the higher rates move in.

1/27 also had a good bit of thundersnow, which we are expecting today. The convective look on radar is similar, although surface temps are probably a hair warmer due to time of year.

That one also occurred mainly at night.  But the difference in the time of year is a big deal regardless.  12/03 and 1/27/11 had quite a bit in common, this is a late season version of them.

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Just now, Paragon said:

It's already all snow here and coming down hard- what rates are we looking at with that in SW Nassau?

2-3"/hour. The radar looks crazy especially around dusk.

And the HRRR is showing lower amounts generally because it expects a couple of hours initially to be rain/snow, and the axis of heaviest precip shifted a little east. To me, everything's on track. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

2-3"/hour. The radar looks crazy especially around dusk.

And the HRRR is showing lower amounts generally because it expects a couple of hours initially to be rain/snow, and the axis of heaviest precip shifted a little east. To me, everything's on track. 

Yep our only concern is getting all this to stick during prime heating hours but at those rates, it should do so easily.  I saw a crazy 12-18" prediction this morning dont know if that will verify though.

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9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yep our only concern is getting all this to stick during prime heating hours but at those rates, it should do so easily.  I saw a crazy 12-18" prediction this morning dont know if that will verify though.

I highly doubt that but 6" or so looks like a good bet, maybe 8". Have to expect 7 or 8-1 ratios. It'll paste like crazy to the trees/power lines, so outages may be going up pretty substantially later today. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I highly doubt that but 6" or so looks like a good bet, maybe 8". Have to expect 7 or 8-1 ratios. It'll paste like crazy to the trees/power lines, so outages may be going up pretty substantially later today. 

I see they're getting thundersnow in Manhattan, Queens, Staten Island and Brooklyn, I wonder when that gets here.  There's also thunder and lightning down the Jersey Shore.

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