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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

I am personally delighted that NYC did not cancel school today. Seems even with the higher totals, the delay in the onset of the heavy stuff argues for staying open. That said, the afternoon/evening commute could be historically bad.

There are going to be major issues and it will be regretted. THe banding then is insane.

looking so much better low for western LI! 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

SPC has a thunderstorm outlook for later on for NYC and NJ.

It will be cool see the snowfall rates associated with this convective blob/CCB moving in later. I can't remember the HRRR showing such a big 50 dbz+ core outside thunderstorm season.

rad11.thumb.gif.82bff8796fe285931617b1860cfd1864.gif

 

 

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31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There are going to be major issues and it will be regretted. THe banding then is insane.

looking so much better low for western LI! 

I agree. I am being entirely selfish. I may have to leave work early and go for a JebWalk home (MSG to !01 st ;)  

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To give an idea of the source airmass for our CCB, the CAMs are insistent that big, long lived supercells are going to pop this evening at the triple point over the edge of the Gulf Stream, about 150mi east of Ocean City.  This has been observed with other shoulder-season noreasters (more fall than spring) but it’s not common when it’s cold enough to snow in the CCB.

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38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be cool see the snowfall rates associated with this convective blob/CCB moving in later. I can't remember the HRRR showing a big 50 dbz+ core outside thunderstorm season.

rad11.thumb.gif.82bff8796fe285931617b1860cfd1864.gif

 

 

If that verified I would have to imagine rates would be 5/6” hour. They would be more but you may actually end up with some grapul 

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Im watching all these TV mets,,,,,let me ask you guys something,,,,MOST of the recent model runs trended colder and more EAST yet these clowns, some of them anyways are saying it will rain or mix in the City and Staten Island , boroughs ----Im a weenie and I want it to snow but using your head and not your heart---some of these guys are out of their minds. in keeping with thread, radar still looking good to the South

 

 

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Im watching all these TV mets,,,,,let me ask you guys something,,,,MOST of the recent model runs trended colder and more EAST yet these clowns, some of them anyways are saying it will rain or mix in the City and Staten Island , boroughs ----Im a weenie and I want it to snow but using your head and not your heart---some of these guys are out of their minds. in keeping with thread, radar still looking good to the South

 

 

I've always noticed that they run approximately 6-12 hours behind the models. With that said, I try not to have the TV news on too much with kids in the house. Everyday is something else insane, especially incorrect forecasts.

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1 hour ago, sferic said:

I still don't really have a good feel for how much Western Nassau county can get.

When would be the last of the accumulating snow? 6PM, Midnight?

 

 

4-8" are likely.  Don't be surprised if you see more.  

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Important point to keep in mind.  While many are focusing on the snow/liquid ratio, remember, that only affects snow depth, which to me is more of an "elegance" issue.  With regard to impact on things like snow removal (force/energy needed for it) and the weight of the snow on trees and roofs, the same mass of snow falls regardless of the ratio, which is why I like using the 10:1 maps, as the conversion to mass is simple (you have no idea of mass with Kuchera).  Same thing was true on 3/14 last year with the sleet - the mass of frozen precip was exactly as forecast - just didn't look as pretty, but was just as impactful.  

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Mesoscale Discussion 110
< Previous MD
MD 110 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 AM CST Wed Mar 07 2018

   Areas affected...eastern PA...central and northern NJ

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071347Z - 071745Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are
   likely to develop later this morning.  Locally higher rates (2+
   inches/hour) are possible primarily after noon local time within the
   frontal snow band and/or convectively augmented bursts.

   DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis places a sub 1000mb developing low
   60 mi ESE of WAL.  Temperatures are in the 32-34 degrees F range
   from the northern part of Chesapeake Bay to NYC.      

   The 12Z IAD RAOB from Dulles, VA showed a temperature profile
   subfreezing except immediately near the surface.  The 500mb
   temperature was -25.5 C.  Looping water-vapor imagery indicates the
   mid-level trough was located over the central Appalachians as of
   13-14Z.  As this disturbance approaches the region, strong mid-level
   ascent associated with the trough (leading to significant columnar
   cooling in the mid-levels) coupled with the northern periphery of a
   plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (7-8 degrees C per km) will
   combine and result in pockets of weak buoyancy and upright
   convection.  Convection will increase in coverage from northern DE
   northeast towards the NYC area during the late morning into the
   early afternoon.  Models indicate the development of strong
   frontogenetic forcing will begin primarily around or after 17Z.  As
   the deep-layer large-scale ascent strengthens and becomes vertically
   juxtaposed with the intensifying frontogenesis, hourly precipitation
   rates will markedly increase from around 0.10 inch to 0.10-0.25
   inch.

   Marginal surface temperatures will effectively result in a
   significant concern/limiting factor for the spatial coverage of 1+
   inch/hour rates farther southeast across portions of NJ as a sharp
   rain/snow precipitation-type gradient becomes established.  Eastern
   PA into northern NJ will likely maintain snow as the precipitation
   type and heavy snowfall rates will focus in a narrow corridor from
   the north part of PHL north-northeast into northern NJ.  Higher
   elevations will likely attain the coldest temperatures (due to the
   low-level thermal profile cooling as elevation increases from sea
   level to 1-2 kft) and the most intense accumulation/hourly rates.
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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z NAM is perfect for the whole metro if you like really intense snowfall rates.  It's not a long duration event as modeled but if you believe the model, it will be a fun afternoon.

 

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Yes intense rates from 2pm to 8pm according to the NAM.

Best part is that it's predominantly during daylight hours. Going to be awesome to watch.

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