March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I've actually been thinking that about this storm in regards to 13 Feb 2014

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I brought that up berfore. I think it’s an excellent analog for snow distribution. Obviously an entirely different setup but it gets you the same outcome 

[kingbaus]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

What's everyone thoughts on northern coastal Monmouth County?  Any accumulating snow?  Or just mostly a mix.  I been reading an getting mixed thoughts 

I'm in Middletown NJ and I wanna know the same thing.

[Ja643y]

Anything to these pressure falls happening pretty far south?

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, kingbaus said:

I'm in Middletown NJ and I wanna know the same thing.

That's where I live.  In north Middletown off bray ave

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I brought that up berfore. I think it’s an excellent analog for snow distribution. Obviously an entirely different setup but it gets you the same outcome 

It's March if that happens now the coast is going to get 1-3 inches and nothing more.

[Yanksfan]

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z Hi Res RGEM has near a foot for NYC

What did the 12z run show for NYC?

[Paragon]

56 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

"People" don't say that.   Ask any of the folks on here who professionally develop models.   It's been more than a decade since I was taught this, but my understanding is that folks have tried to prove the existence of trends and have failed.  Your 'experience' is a function of bias - when models random walk in an obvious way, it doesn't stick in your head, but a 'trend' does.  The human mind overfits patterns.

Model biases are a part of science.  Trends do occur, whether they are short term (for a specific year) or long term is open to debate.  Some of us believe that climate change may even play a role and that the models don't properly account for it, therefore storms are more amped than they used to be.

[purduewx80]

7 minutes ago, Ja643y said:

Anything to these pressure falls happening pretty far south?

pretty much all the guidance takes the low thru SC the next few hours...centered somewhere between CLT and CAE. this is where the strongest low-level warm advection is occurring.

[Metasequoia]

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z Hi Res RGEM has near a foot for NYC

Are you refering to this?

[Yanksfan]

NYC schools will be open tomorrow. Taking a chance.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

@DRZ1111 makes a fair point, IMO.

I use climatology as a reference in weighing uncertainty when there is a large spread in the guidance. It reminds me to go back to look at the maps for various outcomes e.g., the 1960 case, which are available on NCEP's re-analysis page back to the late 19th century, hence my reference about the 1941 and 1960 storm's having colder air masses. I don't literally use climatology in the short-term, but just to go back to look at various outcomes.

Actually he's wrong- he's talking about climatology from a statistician's point of view, which doesn't properly account for the recent rapid changes we have been seeing to the climate which models do not account for- there is no "regression to the mean."

 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

NYC schools will be open tomorrow. Taking a chance.

They are probably thinking of last year. Can't blame them. When I was a kid they almost never closed. I think they closed in the 78 storm.

[NycStormChaser]

1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

NYC schools will be open tomorrow. Taking a chance.

Good call. Even if NYC sees a foot of snow it's still travelable. We aren't talking about a paralyzing storm of two or three feet here. 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

They are probably thinking of last year. Can't blame them. When I was a kid they almost never closed. I think they closed in the 78 storm.

It's a good call, chances are this is nowhere near a school-closing kind of storm.

[SRRTA22]

Just now, seanick said:

Good call. Even if NYC sees a foot of snow it's still travelable. We aren't talking about a paralyzing storm of two or three feet here. 

Maybe but if they remain the snowy edge of the line...we're talking 1-3"/hr locally higher...Could be dangerous. They can easily make the call to make it 1/2 a day though

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Are you refering to this?

Yes

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It's a good call, chances are this is nowhere near a school-closing kind of storm.

Schools were closed in January when the forecast was for 6 -12. 

This storm will be close to that. It all depends on the ccb.

[nzucker]

12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

NYC schools will be open tomorrow. Taking a chance.

They didn't say that. They just said they haven't cancelled YET.

[nycwinter]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Schools were closed in January when the forecast was for 6 -12. 

This storm will be close to that. It all depends on the ccb.

schools only close in nyc..if a storm starts over night or at daybreak and will be heavy.. they never close when a storm at it's peak starts  about noon..

[NJwx85]

42 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

18z Hi Res RGEM has near a foot for NYC

[jm1220]

Might be a good idea for Officials to wait for the 0z runs before making a call on schools. They can make the call overnight I believe. If there’s a trend east, might be a good call. The city could see over 8” if things trend just slightly cooler. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Not digging all this SSE wind. Usually the kiss of death for the coast. I really think the only hope for some bigger totals on the south shore would be to get the ccb/deform to sit and rot at the end of the storm. This way it can transport in colder air. Before that it’s rain on the beaches for sure

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

schools only close in nyc..if a storm starts over night or at daybreak and will be heavy.. they never close when a storm at it's peak starts  about noon..

No district I ever worked in did either; a noon start is a nightmare for staff, because many schools will not do early dismissals. 

[the_other_guy]

Much warmer storm than January. City is all cement. May be bad, may not.

The wind and blowing snow in January also factored in. 

I was surprised by the January call. He ended up being right; thought it was an early call.

 

Schools never closed in the 80s and 90s...but it was a different time. Too much liability and too many cameras today.

[Ericjcrash]

ICON well west, better for NW folk bit pretty much nada city east.

[Rtd208]

Started an obs thread for this event.

 

[NycStormChaser]

[Sn0waddict]

5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

ICON well west, better for NW folk bit pretty much nada city east.

The icon came out a while ago and it’s identical to 12z snowfall wise. It is on the western end of the envelope for sure but it’s certainly not “nada”.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not digging all this SSE wind. Usually the kiss of death for the coast. I really think the only hope for some bigger totals on the south shore would be to get the ccb/deform to sit and rot at the end of the storm. This way it can transport in colder air. Before that it’s rain on the beaches for sure

Models are showing the winds turning to more of a NE direction. If the 500 low closes off, a deform snow zone should be around and pivot through. I doubt it would be more than an inch or two but that’s probably my only chance to walk away from this with anything left on the ground. I’m resigned to >50% of the liquid here falling as non-snow, likely rain. 

[Eduardo]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Models are showing the winds turning to more of a NE direction. If the 500 low closes off, a deform snow zone should be around and pivot through. I doubt it would be more than an inch or two but that’s probably my only chance to walk away from this with anything left on the ground. I’m resigned to >50% of the liquid here falling as non-snow, likely rain. 

Yeah I think us south shore peeps are just about cooked.  I usually bet against March snow IMBY unless there's some compelling factor(s) suggesting otherwise.  I was hoping that our finally seeing some NATL blocking would help us out, but seems like no dice on that.