NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18z - As you can see here, precp increased across the board. vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I’m starting to like a feb 14 scenerio for the island. That is increasing amounts as you head north. I think the extreme south shore is a screw zone with only a few inches. With the extreme north shore of Nassau doing very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NAM is WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: unsure how anyone can argue that the 18Z isn't farther west and warmer. Because the SLP track isn't the one people should be focusing on. The stronger dynamics are closer to the coast and the dry slot stays further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Less snow for most That’s 06 to 12z...not 12 to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Because the SLP track isn't the one people should be focusing on. The stronger dynamics are closer to the coast and the dry slot stays further SE. West is warmer for I-95, the low is on top of Jersey. It matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Less snow for most Wrong runs, but yes, warm and it's getting ugly for the City quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Oh really? What's this then? two maps from the 18Z run? Otherwise I give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Correct me if I am wrong, but does it seem like surface low arrives a little slower to Delaware/NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Wrong runs, but yes, warm and it's getting ugly for the City quickly. I deleted it, it's snowier than 12z esp for the city west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Have your meltdowns about posts somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Why are we worried about off-hour NAM runs? We have a consensus between the two best models, the ECM and the UKMET, for a 8-12"+ snowstorm in NYC metro. This is supported by the RGEM, which has been excellent in short-range situations. The NAM is NOT meant for synoptics; its use is more geared towards boundary layer temperatures, cold air damming, and banding in convective scenarios. Using it to determine where a low is going to track is not what it was designed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is colder than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is colder than 12z Not at 850 or 925 between 27 and 33 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12k NAM thru 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, nzucker said: Why are we worried about off-hour NAM runs? We have a consensus between the two best models, the ECM and the UKMET, for a 8-12"+ snowstorm in NYC metro. This is supported by the RGEM, which has been excellent in short-range situations. The NAM is NOT meant for synoptics; its use is more geared towards boundary layer temperatures, cold air damming, and banding in convective scenarios. Using it to determine where a low is going to track is not what it was designed for. This is actually very interesting information. Thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Outside of Long Island, NAM is a big snowstorm for the forum (6-12"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It may be west, but it seems to be picking up on colder thermal profiles. That results in the increased snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: This is actually very interesting information. Thanks for sharing That actually was pretty informative I gotta say. Don't know if it's true, but it could explain why some think the new run is good and others don't. I'm flummoxed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, mattinpa said: It may be west, but it seems to be picking up on colder thermal profiles. That results in the increased snow amounts. Yes that was my first reaction when I saw the snow map (not buying what a snowmap shows, just for trends) and it seemed higher for nyc metro than at 12z. I could be mistaken though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 At least its below 0C at 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The warmth will be low-level right if it invades the coast? So rain not sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Being honest, imo, this run (18z nam) looks poor (snow wise) for long Island and NYC is fringed. Having the SLP just south of isp does not bode well for a large snow storm in this neck of the woods, it just doesn't. H5 shows that the western extent of the SLP will be along the NJ coast and then slowly creep along the south shore of LI essentially. This is verbatim. As far as sensible weather for the area, what we seem to have is Americans VS globals. The NAM has been hot and synoptically it makes the most sense currently. The rgem and cmc still piund the area, and the rgem is pulling inside its deadly range. That being said, I would blend more towards the Rgem, while keeping in mind the NAM.. 65/35 Rgem favor. What this means is LI looks like it is in a poor place for snow, but it is also right on the edge. Any shift, either way, will have drastic consequences in terms of sensible weather. This storm will have surprises and the models are having a hard time figuring out exactly where this storm touches land and shoots ENE. Furthermore, the NAO and AO being negative would give credence, imo, towards a slightly further S&E track with the storm, as well as (Cranky has repeatedly said) a bit of a colder solution. All of this to say, Long Island and NYC are on the cusp of all forms of sensible weather (NYC is in a better spot for frozen precipitation). Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: At least its below 0C at 925 That’s a sounding for rain with maybe some sleet mixed in. A small layer of around freezing air at 925 would create some sleet pellets but predominantly that would be cold rain. Again we need a further SE 850 low track. There’s a strong southerly flow at that level which is bringing warm air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That’s a sounding for rain with maybe some sleet mixed in. A small layer of around freezing air at 925 would create some sleet pellets but predominantly that would be cold rain. Again we need a further SE 850 low track. There’s a strong southerly flow at that level which is bringing warm air in. I know JM. I was being facetious....I hope the NAM is wrong...that would be utterly sickening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: I know JM. I was being facetious....I hope the NAM is wrong...that would be utterly sickening At this point who knows. I wouldn’t be very quick to go against it when it’s been staying warm like this. I doubt it’s that much a torch given how the non-US models are, but we need that ENE bend after it hits south NJ. Even then we probably still go over for a time. The Euro didn’t get warm 850mb or 925mb air this far north but it was closer than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 This may come down to real time ultimately. Unless we see a substantial cave tonight from one suite it’ll be nearly impossible to know in the corridor near the metro what may occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: This may come down to real time ultimately. Unless we see a substantial cave tonight from one suite it’ll be nearly impossible to know in the corridor near the metro what may occur you can make an argument for 15" or 3" in nyc. this is so annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Thundersnow is a threat for tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.