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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

 

We are discussing based on the 18z NAM which shows at least a MECS, not an overall forescast. 

Fully aware of what’s being discussed. Even more reason the talk is out of place. It’s the NAM, more then 36 hours out at least. And mixing at/along the coast I’m pretty confident will be an issue. JMO

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1 minute ago, strgazr27 said:

Fully aware of what’s being discussed. Even more reason the talk is out of place. It’s the NAM, more then 36 hours out at least. And mixing at/along the coast I’m pretty confident will be an issue. JMO

NAM has done pretty well with the last big storms. It nailed January 2016 even at 48+ hours out. 

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3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

ICON looks relatively unchanged for our region at least. Maybe a tick north and west, but still good for most.

 

Its weird that it did trend closer to the coast, but kept the rain snow line offshore for the most part. 

Due to intensity?

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17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This winter the 12K has been the best with most systems.  Maybe the best model altogether but that’s inside 24-36

Yeah, the 12z NAM run tomorrow should be pretty reliable with the Wed storm details. 

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UPTON UPDATED:

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
416 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

CTZ007-009-010-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-061100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0006.180307T0500Z-180308T1100Z/
Northern Middlesex-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Hudson-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
416 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning and evening commutes on Wednesday.
  Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
416 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-061100-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.A.0006.180307T0500Z-180308T1100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
416 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to
  12 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including during the morning and evening commutes on Wednesday.
  Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
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If the 500mb low closes off, decent snow will wrap around to the west and it won't just be all front end. It'll linger around as the low moves away. Don't just look at the surface panels-the upper air is more important. 
There is blocking with this storm. To me, it's not a matter of if it closes off, it's a matter of where. Unless we are dry slotted with a due north storm from snj, then we will get residual snow backside n

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Just now, USCG RS said:

There is blocking with this storm. To me, it's not a matter of if it closes off, it's a matter of where. Unless we are dry slotted with a due north storm from snj, then we will get residual snow backside n

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If the RGEM images above are correct u and I are getting a sleet storm.

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Its weird that it did trend closer to the coast, but kept the rain snow line offshore for the most part. 
Due to intensity?
It trended closer to the coast because of amplification. In turn, while closer, this means the heights crash to the coast simultaneously

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

If the RGEM images above are correct u and I are getting a sleet storm.

Have to watch as well for warm layers above 850mb. Doesn't look too big of a deal now but there was the zone right over the city on 3/14 last year with heavy sleet. 

Also I don't think that's sleet on the RGEM, that's rain snow mix. 

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Have to watch as well for warm layers above 850mb. Doesn't look too big of a deal now but there was the zone right over the city on 3/14 last year with heavy sleet. 

Also I don't think that's sleet on the RGEM, that's rain snow mix. 

Yeah Rgem looks like a change over,verbatim of course. I know goose said this is a better set up than last March, however, Rgem also nailed last March.

 

Edit : I can't type sometimes.

 

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Yeah Rgem looks like a change over,verbatim of course. I know choose said thisva better set up than last March, however, Rgem also nailed last March.

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Looks a little better upstream to force a quicker turn east, but besides that there are similarities. 

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