MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 SREF increased General 3-5 for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It still has tons of members leaning west of the Op. I’m still more worried about this having mixing issues than missing. I don’t like the flow aloft off the East Coast from 72-96. I think the center could easily come over Long Island still I agree, that’s still my worry more than it missing. To me there’s too much ridging east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 37 minutes ago, Hoth said: Euro was SE with this last system and progressively backed NW up until zero hour. That's correct. People can just look at the archived maps on TT to see the NW progression. Since the upgrade, the Euro has generally been too far east with East Coast storms further out in time. Verification Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 True but past storm the nam was a big hit. This storm the nam is also way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Stop copying what new England forum has to say. You dont even know where that model is...And for now anything is on the table. I am a bit worried that we could have a solution where the storm never fully phases and it escapes out to sea because the nao starts rebounding to almost neutral to positive. But than again I've seen storms where after a very negative nao as it started bouncing to almost positive we had very big storms just like after a very cold snap as it tried to warm up. I think the one snow goose was mentioning before. That one buried central park with 12 inches if my memory is still there. Some parts of queens got over 2 feet of snow. It was a quick hitting storm it might have been a bit colder but the potential here for 6-12 inches for NYC is there. I am concerned that my favorite model cmc is an out to sea depiction. GFS is a crappy model but here it goes If remember correctly you also said like 5” for NYC with the last storm. GFS is a crappy model but you rode the NAM (and were wrong) notorious for overblown totals for all your calls last storm. Can you explain why is that? ANY call this far out is absolute guessing (mostly wrong as of late from a lot of people). This use to be an amazing g place for useful info and learning. Now it’s 75% hyperbole and model huggingbtill the life is squeezed out of it. I’ll stop here. Probably should be in banter and if so feel free to move it mods. Apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 NAM will most likely be bashed for being right again. its hilarious how you guys try to make sense of an extremely awkward 500 mb pattern like it’s just another day. Ohh I forgot, mentioning climate change is a political thing...so we’re just suppose assume everything is normal and routine. temperatures will most likely be critical as the last storm...don’t be surprised if it’s another white rain event. All this low level moisture / misting / fog like with this last system helped keep a lid on the heat island like effect of jersey/ nyc area..so temperatures couldn’t get to freezing.,.its not ez in march. If it was a 100 years ago, without the urban effect, much better chance of snow sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 You just got NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Nam crushes the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam crushes the area Yep 6-12 areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 NAM is a crush job for nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam crushes the area Very similar to that cluster of EPS members than are further west than the OP. Funny how it sometimes takes the NAM until 18z to match the 12z Euro or EPS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: You just got NAM'd Your not kidding. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 If remember correctly you also said like 5” for NYC with the last storm. GFS is a crappy model but you rode the NAM (and were wrong) notorious for overblown totals for all your calls last storm. Can you explain why is that? ANY call this far out is absolute guessing (mostly wrong as of late from a lot of people). This use to be an amazing g place for useful info and learning. Now it’s 75% hyperbole and model huggingbtill the life is squeezed out of it. I’ll stop here. Probably should be in banter and if so feel free to move it mods. Apologies. Being fair to him, it snowed*** quite a bit, which the NAM progged over the gfs (which was too warm). The issue was more that it just could not snow hard enough to overcome the surface layer. Likewise the bands set up a bit west of where expected. The NAM did pretty well actually. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Also snows through midnight Thursday and past over LI so has many hours to pile up after dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yep 6-12 areawide North and west too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 ahh the always popular rogue 18Z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 56 minutes ago, bluewave said: That's correct. People can just look at the archived maps on TT to see the NW progression. Since the upgrade, the Euro has generally been too far east with East Coast storms further out in time. Verification Forecast Beyond 96 it’s tended to be over amped a good amount of the time. Inside 96 it’s had a tendency towards being flat. More so on non Gulf originating lows. I’ve noticed it’s better on systems that come out of the Gulf Coast for whatever reason. That may just be small sample size because we’ve had less of them since the Miller As haven’t been too common the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Hmm... I know we often look at the total snowfall maps in TT that have a 10:1 ratio, but shouldn't we be looking at the total positive snow-depth increase map instead for more realistic snowfall projections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Hmm... I know we often look at the total snowfall maps in TT that have a 10:1 ratio, but shouldn't we be looking at the total positive snow-depth increase map instead for more realistic snowfall projections? you shouldn't be looking at any of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very similar to that cluster of EPS members than are further west than the OP. Funny how it sometimes takes the NAM until 18z to match the 12z Euro or EPS members. I just posted this away , the Euro OP is centered at 71W , more than half of indi's are from 72W Which the 75 miles west that the Euro differs from the 1 to 1.5 LE GFS NAM UKMET Looks like an I 95 snowstorm with a much bigger one lurking on day 8 for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I just posted this away , the Euro OP is centered at 71W , more than half of indi's are from 72W Which the 75 miles west that the Euro differs from the 1 to 1.5 LE GFS NAM UKMET Looks like an I 95 snowstorm with a much bigger one lurking on day 8 for someone I can't remember another March with 3 such intense March storms in the first 12 days. I guess we should start calling this Stratmegeddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Upton has 4-6 inches areawide on their snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Upton has 4-6 inches areawide on their snowmap Seems reasonable from this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Rgem is a Mecs Alot of precip and temps near freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Im sure the models will change many times with so many hours before Wednesday . At this time period for the last storm which model was doing the best job as far as what actually took place , Im talking track NOT totals ? Also the next storm the one after Wednesday , long ways out but signal is there do u think that could occur on Sunday or afterwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem is a Mecs Alot of precip and temps near freezing Do you have a snowfall total map from the rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Gfs is a nice hit especially city on west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Wow GFS is TUCKED. So GFS is west and EURO is east. Split the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Wow GFS is TUCKED. So GFS is west and EURO is east. Split the difference?That tucked would create issues for alot of this subforum... Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Icon looks like the GFS. Tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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