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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Too far SW for you and me pilgrim, though we would still get our consolation 5-7. Too early to say though. Doubting Thomas for the time being.

We really need a good storm here. We have been shafted all year 

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Just now, snow1 said:

We really need a good storm here. We have been shafted all year 

I wouldn't say shafted; we've had some decent snows, but nothing big. Aside from the freak warmth it would be a typical winter from the 80's, maybe even considered snowy by some. We just haven't cashed in since 2016 on the big stuff.

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15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I wouldn't say shafted; we've had some decent snows, but nothing big. Aside from the freak warmth it would be a typical winter from the 80's, maybe even considered snowy by some. We just haven't cashed in since 2016 on the big stuff.

I agree with this statement.   The 80’s were terrible for snow around here (Nassau county then).  People don’t understand how fortunate they are comparatively 

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14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Not so bad for us either...matches the NAM honestly. Terrific 12z model suite today. 

If the seasonal west trend under 72 hrs holds for this storm, then the JP may shift further west in later runs. Pretty impressive CCB on the sim sat.

ecmwf_ir_east3_15.thumb.png.b518b1c9fdae6da05514b36381f7f781.png

 

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There’s a lot of things you can say bad about the Euro this winter, but a progressive/too far east bias isn’t one of them. In fact, it’s been consistently way too overamped/west, not the other way around. The fact that it keeps going further east is definitely not a good thing. And the whole trend with the storms going further west earlier in the winter was with a ++NAO. We now have a strong west based -NAO, total 180 degree different setup in the Atlantic. If we still had the +NAO then yea, I’d definitely agree that the storm is going to trend west at the last minute, but that’s not the case now

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

There’s a lot of things you can say bad about the Euro this winter, but a progressive/too far east bias isn’t one of them. In fact, it’s been consistently way too overamped/west, not the other way around. The fact that it keeps going further east is definitely not a good thing. And the whole trend with the storms going further west earlier in the winter was with a ++NAO. We now have a strong west based -NAO, total 180 degree different setup in the Atlantic. If we still had the +NAO then yea, I’d definitely agree that the storm is going to trend west at the last minute, but that’s not the case now

It comes down to h5 capture. Storms such as this one tend to really cause havoc between LI and NJ crew...it will be difficult to have a scenario that allows both camps to win. IMO, not really worth getting hung up on this system. Daytime snow with this airmass will be underwhelming. Anything that accumulates will be gone in a day or so.

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There’s a lot of things you can say bad about the Euro this winter, but a progressive/too far east bias isn’t one of them. In fact, it’s been consistently way too overamped/west, not the other way around. The fact that it keeps going further east is definitely not a good thing. And the whole trend with the storms going further west earlier in the winter was with a ++NAO. We now have a strong west based -NAO, total 180 degree different setup in the Atlantic. If we still had the +NAO then yea, I’d definitely agree that the storm is going to trend west at the last minute, but that’s not the case now

Euro was SE with this last system and progressively backed NW up until zero hour. 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I can’t get it to load on my phone right now, but I just read on twitter that the new EPS matches the 12z operational run and it ticked east

It still has tons of members leaning west of the Op.  I’m still more worried about this having mixing issues than missing.  I don’t like the flow aloft off the East Coast from 72-96.  I think the center could easily come over Long Island still 

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