Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be pretty surprised if this got lost to the east. The trough on all guidance goes negative pretty early on. The block is what prevents this from going up powderfreak's fanny. 

 

It's all going to come down to exactly how strong the block and Greenland high is, if it's weaker or moves out a bit, it could tuck in more...if its stronger it'll push more east, right?  

I agree if that block isn't there that goes right up the Hudson Valley.

[mahk_webstah]

WPC throwin the B

THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE
GREATEST WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER BRINGS A MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS TO THE REGION.
 MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS STORM WITH A TRACK
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MERIT CONCERN.  STRONG ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF THE
LOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE NORTHEAST
COAST, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

[Damage In Tolland]

At least it’s not powder that will melt in 2 days . Should be wet and moist and meat 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's all going to come down to exactly how strong the block and Greenland high is, if it's weaker or moves out a bit, it could tuck in more...if its stronger it'll push more east, right?  

I agree if that block isn't there that goes right up the Hudson Valley.

Yeah the block is prob the main driver...but factors like vortmax strength could also cause small shifts...the block will influence that shortwave in Canada that sort of fujiwaras around the ULL

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ceiling of def higher than 6". Ceiling is prob 15-18" or something in a weenie band. But just because that is the ceiling, it doesn't mean it will happen. 

Wouldn't the ceiling be more around 2+ or even 30 with a slow moving strong and intensifying noreaster tucking into the GOM?  I mean for Jeff and then in the inevitable ENY/VT weenie deform band.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wouldn't the ceiling be more around 2+ or even 30 with a slow moving strong and intensifying noreaster tucking into the GOM?  I mean for Jeff and then in the inevitable ENY/VT weenie deform band.

We'd need a Feb 5, 2001-esque deform band. Not easy to accomplish. I suppose it's theoretically possible in this but I'd prob want to see more evidence of it once we get inside of 48 hours to entertain the possibility. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

This has a 20-30 potential. I see this no different then recent systems that did not have blocked flow to the NE. 

[dryslot]

The biggest thing that i see is how far south or north this s/w matures, That will be the areas that see the higher totals, GFS has that happening further south as the low approaches LI, Euro has it a few tics east of the GFS location and closes off H5 once its in the GOM, A 50 mile shift one way or the other probably has more implications for folks in the western envelope, Track wise this storm goes just about on a south to north trajectory with a tug back to the west as the SLP gets captured..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'd need a Feb 5, 2001-esque deform band. Not easy to accomplish. I suppose it's theoretically possible in this but I'd prob want to see more evidence of it once we get inside of 48 hours to entertain the possibility. 

Which usually isnt modeled at this lead time, right? We may see it inside 48 if thats the case.

[mahk_webstah]

GYX is hedging with rain and snow in the forecast, at least over here in Dover.  I think if the track is over the cape and into the GOM while bombing that any rain would be brief and overcome by dynamics

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At least it’s not powder that will melt in 2 days . Should be wet and moist and meat 

Regarding retention, Be afraid of the March sun angle. Be very afraid.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

What's the ceiling for this event? Heard some people say it won't be more than 6 inches, while others are more bullish.

Well ..."ceiling" implies certainty ?   Certainty in this business is the course of least resistance to a destination of greatest regret - just remember that...  As Ray most likely does (haha, just kidding Ray)

The blend of the 12z yesterday probably pushed the ceiling higher, whereas the 00z tended to lower it some.  The thread header discusses this as a median, to perhaps above median confidence for a moderate snow impact ...but left the ceiling option a bit open because at the time, there was some question as to a more proficient phase with the northern stream.  Phased solutions are deeper ...tending "close off," which can range from a temporary condition to much longer in duration... But when they sever themselves off from the surrounding steering field, they slow down depending on how much of the former... Adding to that, we will still be reeling hemispherically (somewhat) from west based -NAO, which is a slowing factorization anyway...

So you can see where this is going:  ( ...better phasing/cutting off induces slow down + NAO slow down) = quick and dirty assessment that a slow moving system should materialize.  

But even just a moderate strengthened presence in the deeper tropospheric manifold will be 'forced' into a slower translation of events due to the fact that down stream to the N and E is a pileup on the interstate of the atmosphere, whether the NAO block is very discerned or not - it's still sort of vestigially effecting matters. 

At the end what I am getting at is a slow moving system...  simply put, but... secondarily to that, slow systems that have a lot of dynamics (such as a negative tilt system and so forth), can also introduce mesoscale irregularities in what falls from the sky.  That makes the ceiling really uneven.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ..."ceiling" implies certainty ?   Certainty in this business is the course of least resistance to a destination of greatest regret - just remember that...  As Ray most likely does (haha, just kidding Ray)

The blend of the 12z yesterday probably pushed the ceiling higher, whereas the 00z tended to lower it some.  The thread header discusses this as a median, to perhaps above median confidence for a moderate snow impact ...but left the ceiling option a bit open because at the time, there was some question as to a more proficient phase with the northern stream.  Phases solutions are deeper ...tending "close off," which can range from a temporary condition to much longer in duration... But when they sever themselves off from the surrounding steering field, they slow down depending on how much of th the former... Adding to that, we will still be reeling hemispherically (somewhat) from west based -NAO, which is a slowing factorization anyway...

So you can see where this is going:  ( ...better phasing/cutting off induces slow down + NAO slow down) = quick and dirty assessment that a slow moving system should materialize.  

But even just a moderate strengthen presence in the deeper tropospheric manifold will be 'forced' into a slower translation of events due to the face that down stream to the N and E is pileup on the interstate of the atmosphere, whether the NAO block is very discerned or not - it's still sort of vestigially effecting matters. 

At the end what I am getting at is a slow moving system...  simply put, but... secondarily to that, slow systems that have a lot of dynamics (such as a negative tilt system and so forth), can also introduce mesoscale irregularities in what falls from the sky.  That makes the ceiling really uneven.

So you're saying there's a chance..................

[JC-CT]

Geez big numbers being tossed around

[JC-CT]

Look it's a white hurricane

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Geez big numbers being tossed around

Yeah... I dunno -

I can understand WPC's thinking, but taking that tact, heh... It depends on who is consuming their advice.   Many of the ears and eyes of the republic (so to speak) may not be the most responsible minded for processing words like blizzard. And, the unfortunately reality is that there are a lot of readers in this and other weather-related social media that are included in that statistic. 

Barring a sociological digression ...  we kid around, but it's only funny because these following proportionate filters are essentially correct:

THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED  GOING TO GET TO HAVE THE
GREATEST WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER BRINGS A MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS TO THE REGION.
 MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS STORM WITH A TRACK
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MERIT CONCERN.  STRONG ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF THE
LOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE NORTHEAST
COAST, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

What's funny ...if perhaps tragic about all that, if those charged with the responsibility to warn the hoi polloi of impending natural crisis' don't put the fear of god in said masses... I mean, it seems the only way to get people to respond is to scare the schit out of them.  Otherwise, the true tsunamis is the litigation wave that comes in the aftermath of the natural disaster ... well, maybe not actual lawsuits, but reputation of office certainly becomes the shameful reality.  So either way, their sort of f'cked if they do or don't... because it's either "cry-wolf" to get a response, or go conservative and be ignored ... At the end of the day, Americans more than merely appear less willing to accept their own culpability in anything and try to reclaim restitution before admitting their own failures... that's what this culture has become.

So I went there a little anyway ... sue me!

[Buddy1987]

I know they were hinting at the 12z having better ingestion of aircraft data and RAOB sites with the main players, so just looking at 12z nam vs 6z gfs, looks like much more interaction with the canadian s/w backing down.

[CoastalWx]

Blizzard? Vodka in WPC morning OJ?

[Buddy1987]

Boy to add to my post, 12z NAM is about to go freaking nuclear at 78.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I know they were hinting at the 12z having better ingestion of aircraft data and RAOB sites with the main players, so just looking at 12z nam vs 6z gfs, looks like much more interaction with the canadian s/w backing down.

 

 

Yeah, I was noticing that difference with the 00z comparison to the 06z, too - same almost identical difference exists, all of which smacks of "missing" raob data ... perhaps negating some of the 06z wave mechanics?

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Blizzard? Vodka in WPC morning OJ?

Ah ahahhaha...  This made me laugh Scott - I just wrote a whole essay-esque diatribe about their word choice, replete with an impugning of the entire western culture, and could have just summed it up as: "What the f are they drinkin"

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Thankfully nammy chases convection and slips east. Dont want a nam jackpot at 84.

[Typhoon Tip]

Anyway, similar to the 00z version... the NAM has substantially deepening coastal surface low already in play well prior to the best mechanics from that trough nadir having yet to move up and catch up with it...

That's intriguing what happens trying to visualize when that happens to say the least... That "seems" on paper rife with potential to ...shall we say, exceed the depth expectation of the global models should that NAM's 00z and 12z blend verify. 

 

[Buddy1987]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thankfully nammy chases convection and slips east. Dont want a nam jackpot at 84.

Agreed for sure. Over-amping is death at this range.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah ahahhaha...  This made me laugh Scott - I just wrote a whole essay-esque diatribe about their word choice, replete with an impugning of the entire western culture, and could have just summed it up as: "What the f are they drinkin"

I think it’s fine mentioning it. Setup screams potential and thats what they are indicating. Nothing more.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah, I think ur fine guys/girls...

 

[ORH_wxman]

44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Which usually isnt modeled at this lead time, right? We may see it inside 48 if thats the case.

Right but I'm just saying like 90% of the time it won't ever show up and we get a solid 12-18 max stripe and the pink unicorn 20-30" remains elusive. 

I get what you're saying...we have a block and maybe that's going to slow this just enough and add enough fronto to perhaps increase the odds of the megaband. We will see...it's not impossible at all in this setup.

I mean theoretically if we're talking max potential, we could just say it's 40-50" because some sort of gravity wave type insanity occurs like 12/23/97 but lasts for 9 hours instead of 5 on either side of the rest of the storm...but the odds are low enough I personally wouldn't include these scenarios in the "ceiling" argument. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think it’s fine mentioning it. Setup screams potential and thats what they are indicating. Nothing more.

Mmm... To be honest, I carry some reservations about the recent uptick in the usage of Blizzard, both in dialogue by offices, local and national, but also ..I am noticing that blizzard warnings are being handed out like tic-tacks for every storm nowadays. 

The odd ...I guess 'hypocrisy' is that ...yeah, I also think they were too stingy with it before... So, perhaps what's needed is a middle ground usage of both, terminology and warning set ups.

The problem is that storm management in terms of crisis prevention ...ranging to response, certainly is effected by people's ability to take things seriously, and doing so appropriately/relative to a given threat. If we bandy blizzard about to regularly, then people think it's okay to run down to the corner store in the blizzard, because they remember what it physically looked like out the window and doors the last several times...

[wxeyeNH]

I'm kind of gun shy up here after the last storm got blocked with minimal impacts CNE/NNE.  Could this one also get blocked. Come up and then get shunted ENE with another near miss.  Just looked at the NAM.  I know its the end of its run so should be taken with a grain of salt.  It really strengthens the system and looks like a hugger at 78 and then at 84 it goes due east.  That's great for you guys but another miss for the ski resorts.  Thought?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right but I'm just saying like 90% of the time it won't ever show up and we get a solid 12-18 max stripe and the pink unicorn 20-30" remains elusive. 

I get what you're saying...we have a block and maybe that's going to slow this just enough and add enough fronto to perhaps increase the odds of the megaband. We will see...it's not impossible at all in this setup.

I mean theoretically if we're talking max potential, we could just say it's 40-50" because some sort of gravity wave type insanity occurs like 12/23/97 but lasts for 9 hours instead of 5 on either side of the rest of the storm...but the odds are low enough I personally wouldn't include these scenarios in the "ceiling" argument. 

Hell lets go Dawn Awakening and say 50-70” with 100mph winds.