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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek


Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

I'm just a bit worried about these recent eastward tics.....hopefully we don't end up losing it OTS

I'd be pretty surprised if this got lost to the east. The trough on all guidance goes negative pretty early on. The block is what prevents this from going up powderfreak's fanny. 

 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Re last storm, the euro was at least stable being further SE. The GFS was south, then over ALB then back SE again.  Just beware of subtle shifts.

Scott, does this have the chance of a Miller type forming? Or no chance, Not sure if Tip said wasn't really a fast mover?

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1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Not saying a complete miss but it was mentioned before that this is a fairly compact storm. Track shifts either direction seems like it will make a big difference.

Right, agree. But there have been zero recent eastward tics. 1 euro op run being east of gfs and cmc doesnt concern me.....esp when it goes against the majority of the eps members. Basically I see the euro op as the far right goalpost atm.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be pretty surprised if this got lost to the east. The trough on all guidance goes negative pretty early on. The block is what prevents this from going up powderfreak's fanny. 

 

Yes I’m with you. I think this will be tucked in, close to the coast in the GOM. I can see this tracking over the cape before backing in and stacking at H5. We will also want to watch closely how much of the Gulf of Mexico she can tap—we know how that can impact downstream UL height rises...

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right, agree. But there have been zero recent eastward tics. 1 euro op run being east of gfs and cmc doesnt concern me.....esp when it goes against the majority of the eps members. Basically I see the euro op as the far right goalpost atm.

The EPS did tick a bit SE from 12z yesterday to 00z last night.  Same with GEM I believe.  Not overly worried but just something to watch with a compact system.

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3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

I'll retract the OTS....I'm just saying 50 miles either way seems like it can make a big difference in totals and qpf due to the compact nature of this.

Deff. And i can see now how the 0z eps mean is on the BM while Sat 12z was inside. So ok there. They both still end up about the same position in the GOM though. So most likely its the timing of the phase and when it gets tugged in where they differentiate.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where you see this? the range is tight imo. 

You misread my comment.......I was not referencing model depictions.  There was a comment about this going out to see which Will and Scott both said they don't see that happening.  What I was saying is that there's a range between 'major hit' and 'out-to-sea'.

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Deff. And i can see now how the 0z eps mean is on the BM while Sat 12z was inside. So ok there. They both still end up about the same position in the GOM though. So most likely its the timing of the phase and when it gets tugged in where they differentiate.

Ya not huge difference but just something to keep an eye out for.  GFS has not waivered a bit where Euro seems to be more of a wobbler at the moment.  Hopefully the 12z's today lock it in a bit more.

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2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

What's the ceiling for this event? Heard some people say it won't be more than 6 inches, while others are more bullish.

The ceiling of def higher than 6". Ceiling is prob 15-18" or something in a weenie band. But just because that is the ceiling, it doesn't mean it will happen. 

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