Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

I need that another 10mi NW to account for drift below the beam.

Is it 10m? Somebody posted about that once, said it ended up being like 30m?

[backedgeapproaching]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The new map here shows the cut back. This one stings for sure, especially being late in the season.

Take em down, down, down in VT.  Sucks, but probably reality at this point.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like east does better than west but he also loves to make it an east vs west mid 90s biggie vs tupac rap war.

tupac 100% biggie was a fat useless f***, tupac was a poet and a prophet

[eyewall]

Just now, backedgeapproaching said:

Take em down, down, down in VT.  Sucks, but probably reality at this point.

Yeah and this may still be generous.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The new map here shows the cut back. This one stings for sure, especially being late in the season.

 

Ha I love your passion with the emotion.

I love getting riled up on the NW model runs but always expected it east.  We were banking on mid-level banding the whole time.  

Youve been up here long enough to know how this works.  We'll end up with some upslope surprise one of these nights from this thing.  Saturday night looks pretty good. 

Fun past two systems to track for sure.  Biggest busts will be those 18-24" forecasts in the Berkshires, Litchfield and SVT.  Even yesterday's EURO was too amped up.

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I need that another 10mi NW to account for drift below the beam.

 What is it look like for timing up there my daughter is going to be returning from Plymouth State at around 6 PM ? I don't want Her to get caught in a cluster on 93 .

[FSUIZZY]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

58.8 inches (mostly advisory events). 6.7 inches below normal to date.

And you don't think you'll get at least 6.7 inches. Heck I am willing to bet between now and next week your above normal to date. SMH. 

[eyewall]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha I love your passion with the emotion.

I love getting riled up on the NW model runs but always expected it east.  We were banking on mid-level banding the whole time.  

Youve been up here long enough to know how this works.  We'll end up with some upslope surprise one of these nights from this thing.  Saturday night looks pretty good. 

Fun past two systems to track for sure.  

Yeah at least the skiing will be good that is true.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like east does better than west but he also loves to make it an east vs west mid 90s biggie vs tupac rap war.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

tupac 100% biggie was a fat useless f***, tupac was a poet and a prophet

The bartender is cutting you off and calling a cab. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Is it 10m? Somebody posted about that once, said it ended up being like 30m?

The drift depends on the winds below the beam, fall rates, and height below he beam. But I mostly meant that I’m not directly under the band in that image.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, FSUIZZY said:

And you don't think you'll get at least 6.7 inches. Heck I am willing to bet between now and next week your above normal to date. SMH. 

Yeah I was just looking for one double digit hit at cap off the season.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I need that another 10mi NW to account for drift below the beam.

I'm just going sit and rot under that if its right.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

The drift depends on the winds below the beam, fall rates, and height below he beam. But I mostly meant that I’m not directly under the band in that image.

Probably because I'm so far away from both local radars that I think that. My hood is just about the worst in the local area for radar coverage.

[DFRI]

Thunder snow.

 

 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I need that another 10mi NW to account for drift below the beam.

Amazing shift in 24 hours but we used to it now.

We get the Montreal radio stations and their forecasts went from 10-14" to 2-4" in a day, lol.  

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

 What is it look like for timing up there my daughter is going to be returning from Plymouth State at around 6 PM ? I don't want Her to get caught in a cluster on 93 .

It was sticking to the road already from exit 18-19 a half hour ago. It’ll be slick around then, but nothing too heavy. I’m sure they’ll be salting the daylights out of the highway.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, DFRI said:

Thunder snow.

You are not as pretty as your avatar would imply.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 What is it look like for timing up there my daughter is going to be returning from Plymouth State at around 6 PM ? I don't want Her to get caught in a cluster on 93 .

We can send Wiz out to get her.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 Snowing pretty good in Southborough . What do you think for your area ? I'm hoping Sherborn gets more rain than here . 

I'm guessing southborough and sherborn will be pretty similar....southborough in general has a little extra elevation, so maybe that will goose their totals a little higher....but both spots should get croaked pretty hard. I'm guessing 8-14" is a good forecast for both...prob more like 10-15 for areas above 300 feet? Can't rule out a higher lolli as well in any big bands.

[wxsniss]

Been away for a few hours... anyone check how HRRR is comparing to realtime snow/rain?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

WCT chances of seeing more than a foot are diminshing by the hour. 8-10” is more reasonable.

[Johnno]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

WCT chances of seeing more than a foot are diminshing by the hour. 8-10” is more reasonable.

Saw a report of 8” in new Fairfield, idk how true it is 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nashua pasted in snow

Sticking 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Saw a report of 8” in new Fairfield, idk how true it is 

Maybe at 1k near Sherman. 

[snowman21]

Anyone believe the 4 inches in Fairfield? I mean BDR has basically been 1 SM -SN and 34 degrees. Not exactly a good combo for accumulating.

[tamarack]

GYX snow estimate has backed off 4" since this morning, still 14" for "most likely", which would be great.  I just hope it doesn't end like Feb 15 last year (a very different and much smaller system.)  About 18 hours before 1st flakes, Farmington's "most likely" for that one was 17" with 10% chance of 21.  They got a bit over 5".  I'll guess we end up at the 90% chance - 10".  Other than Feb 2010, I've never been disappointed by double-digit snow.

[CTNoreaster]

6 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Anyone believe the 4 inches in Fairfield? I mean BDR has basically been 1 SM -SN and 34 degrees. Not exactly a good combo for accumulating.

In Fairfield and no more than 1 inch OTG. 1/2in from overnight melted but rates have not been hard enough to accumulate anywhere

[WthrJunkyME]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

GYX snow estimate has backed off 4" since this morning, still 14" for "most likely", which would be great.  I just hope it doesn't end like Feb 15 last year (a very different and much smaller system.)  About 18 hours before 1st flakes, Farmington's "most likely" for that one was 17" with 10% chance of 21.  They got a bit over 5".  I'll guess we end up at the 90% chance - 10".  Other than Feb 2010, I've never been disappointed by double-digit snow.

In all honesty, I’ll be disappointed with 10”.  I admit it.

[JC-CT]

still white rain so far. we wait?