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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, rnaude241 said:

Boston and the I 95 corridor will change to all snow this evening and then heavy wet snow will fall deep into the night. Chances of Boston getting 4” or more are excellent, and 6” or more quite possible...heavy, wet snow with strong NE winds. #wcvb

Harv 1 Ray 1

:lol:

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hmm... It's certainly entertaining :)   however...I don't honestly know where you are getting the melted equivalent QPF in interior N/central purple region for 30"  

Even at 12::1 that's pushing the tin a bit.  I suppose we could flat out over perform QPF ...and one would be right by meso banding.  I mean, if we have a general layout for say 1.8" liq equiv, and then a band with thunder sends two level yellow stationary for 3.5 hours, you're going to over achieve in that band.  

I won't say it can't happen, ...I am just not sure it is "likely" enough to support 30.   I don't have problem with 18 or 20" as the upper bounds.  That all said, ... yeah, at some point if we wanna be 'greats' in this prognostic antics ...we have to take chances and put out the fringe calls, and seeing as there is enough variables at least within reach... it's unclear how 'fringed' 24 to 30" really is. 

Personally, I'd go 16" for the girth of the interior, and put the hills of Worcester and the plateau region out near Barre ... up through the Monads for 22" or so...  but would literally say to the public, some of the latest guidance suggests these numbers could even be higher - I think that ending statement 'tints' enough to rescue one's efforts if people wake up to a GFS blue dawn cryo wonderland

Thank you for the feedback Tip.

Yea, I'm thinking the jackpot zone will have that perfect combo of higher ratios/duration/meso banding/elevation. Obviously not a slam dunk by any stretch but I felt chances higher than 50% so I went with it. Also, some storms you --as a forecaster-- have a good handle on for days, whereas others leave you scratching your head even as they happen. This one was the former for me, so I felt higher confidence with it.

A separate point is consensus weather forecasts these days are cheap; really cheap. Never going to succeed in this space by being with the consensus. Back in the day I far exceeded consensus --on average-- on wxchallenge by going against the grain when I had the confidence to do so. There's an irony to this of sorts -- you want no one to agree with you in the present; and everyone to agree with you in the future...

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