Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,507
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SnowHabit
    Newest Member
    SnowHabit
    Joined

Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:


I think 3-6 at least. I’d through GFS in the garbage with this storm. Euro never gets 925s close to Boston.


.

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

The GFS just won't relent. Continues to warm the boundary layer, even after dark, almost right through 06z. The NAM just holds at 33 like you say. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WintersComing

WintersComing

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

Ya it's a ****ty call no doubt.  Start with a reasonable amount with a big freakin caveat saying could be considerably more?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The GFS just won't relent. Continues to warm the boundary layer, even after dark, almost right through 06z. The NAM just holds at 33 like you say. 

Sell the thermal profiles. BUt on the water...tough to go balls to wall. However, if I lived near 128...We pound. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Sell the thermal profiles. BUt on the water...tough to go balls to wall. However, if I lived near 128...We pound. 

I mean look at this. Image is NAM Tw in the lowest 1 km (black line 0C). The white lines overlaid on that is the GFS Tw in the lowest 1 km.

While BOS flirts with 0C on the NAM, the GFS is like +3.5! 

Garbage.

Tw.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Johnno

Johnno

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s usually in the right spot maybe our lucky rabbits foot. But Bethel? lol. At least do Newtown for a positive (weather) story. For good reasons.

Maxon was talking to him on nbc30 he said he went west to avoid dry slot and to get the best forcing etc, hopefully we all rock

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We prayed long and hard last night to reach top 5 levels. 18” would do it. ONE time baby!

Really feeling this one, Berg. You can practically see the intense diffluence aloft on the NJ radar. This sucker is gonna take off in the next few hours. You're gonna get smoked.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Really feeling this one, Berg. You can practically see the intense diffluence aloft on the NJ radar. This sucker is gonna take off in the next few hours. You're gonna get smoked.

Yea man. I felt it for days now but I could not let the weenie out too much, but it’s starting to poke through the jammies this morning. Cautiously optimistic for high end of the ranges. GL over there sir. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...