Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[WintersComing]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS is pretty much pornographic here

Ya some major lift going on there!

[8611Blizz]

Harvey on board

 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Harvey on board

 

DETAILS PLEASE

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Going to try to go to bed. We'll see how this goes.

I’m nearly certain that when I check this forum in a half-asleep haze at 2am that you’ll have posts in the euro pbp. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS is pretty much pornographic here

That's a pretty great mid level track for you.

[8611Blizz]

3-5 in bos but 5-8 very close

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS is pretty much pornographic here

Too bad you need to toss it.

[MBRI]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

and it has on and off flakes in the air through Saturday night....weeks and weeks of snow.

 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's a pretty great mid level track for you.

Yeah we take. All day I thought we'd get skunked with some mid level issues.... but GFS/NAM are great. I'm thinking we wind up with crappy ratios in the valley - but still that's a great look. 

[tavwtby]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Sweet. Kind of thought it was heavy rain to snow 

Nah all snow man... area from New Haven to around Manchester picked up 35-40"

[tavwtby]

Any OBS from ENY?? Is that for real or virga?

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That faux GFS mixed layer really taints the overall look to things. When I plot 950 mb temps, the Reg and NAM12 really give a reasonable look to the coastal front pinned near 95. But the GFS has above freezing well back into MA and NH because it thinks 950 is in the mixed layer. 

In my opinion it even taints the wet bulb temp, because the surface is just too warm in the first place and gives an artificially high wet bulb because of it.

Believe it or not it smacks as though an entire series of physical equations were inadvertently left out of the final build of that model… An error that somehow went under the radar during release and it's been functional with it ever since. Wasn't this new version of the GFS released in the summer?

Re-the wetbulb thing: during the nor'easter the GFS had windswept pouring rain at 39/30 the whole way for Worcester… It really seems like it physically is failed programung how to saturate the atmosphere in the bottom of the Ekmanlayer 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's a pretty great mid level track for you.

MLs have gotten a lot better on the 00z suite for a lot of SNE...minimizing the time in the dryslot def helps amounts. These SE solutions seem to have slightly more compact ML centers too...not these big arcing ones that drive a dryslot well into northwest MA or something.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah we take. All day I thought we'd get skunked with some mid level issues.... but GFS/NAM are great. I'm thinking we wind up with crappy ratios in the valley - but still that's a great look. 

 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

MLs have gotten a lot better on the 00z suite for a lot of SNE...minimizing the time in the dryslot def helps amounts. These SE solutions seem to have slightly more compact ML centers too...not these big arcing ones that drive a dryslot well into northwest MA or something.

The mid levels are in really good agreement across the model guidance. The GFS looks pretty tasty aloft and if anything is on the weaker side of the suite. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Believe it or not it smacks as though an entire series of physical equations were inadvertently left out of the final build of that model… An error that somehow went under the radar during release and it's been functional with it ever since. Wasn't this new version of the GFS released in the summer?Wasn't this new version of the GFS released in the summer?

Yeah, it's not good. And unfortunately I think we're entering that window where no changes/fixes to the model are planned as they devote all the resources towards the NGGPS/FV3.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

MLs have gotten a lot better on the 00z suite for a lot of SNE...minimizing the time in the dryslot def helps amounts. These SE solutions seem to have slightly more compact ML centers too...not these big arcing ones that drive a dryslot well into northwest MA or something.

I remember a quote from Ray during January 2011 mid storm.  Something ts how a dryslot has its ass handed to it....

[The 4 Seasons]

Final call. Going down with the ship, so be it. Go big or go home. GL everyone. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, it's not good. And unfortunately I think we're entering that window where no changes/fixes to the model are planned as they devote all the resources towards the NGGPS/FV3.

Is that the nam replacement?

[#NoPoles]

Eric Fisher threw out thundersnow in his teaser

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Is that the nam replacement?

NAM and GFS replacement. 

It's a huge overhaul, so hopefully it doesn't fall on its face. 

[MBRI]

nws discussion   @10:30  

 

Will continue to dive into the 00z guidance but the cooler
trend of the NAM is something to note.

[snowman21]

12 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Any OBS from ENY?? Is that for real or virga?

I imagine it's real since it has been snowing lightly here for about the last hour.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

NAM and GFS replacement. 

It's a huge overhaul, so hopefully it doesn't fall on its face. 

So 2 models going down to 1? How far out will it go?

[#NoPoles]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

NAM and GFS replacement. 

It's a huge overhaul, so hopefully it doesn't fall on its face. 

Does it have a pet name?

[TalcottWx]

Fisher just went 1-3" inside of 128.

"when there's no arctic air in March, we rain in Boston, I've gotten burned on that enough" - Pete Bouchard 

Pete B actually has more than Fisher. I'm a little puzzled. 3-6" inside 128

[8611Blizz]

Fisher is still not changing his amounts around here, 1-3 with 3-6 nearby...

[ice1972]

Haha look at Ryan teaching school on air discussing dry sluts.....love it

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

Fisher is still not changing his amounts around here, 1-3 with 3-6 nearby...

Absolutely puzzling. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

So 2 models going down to 1? How far out will it go?

Same as GFS, but higher resolution. Different assimilation than currently being used, but not the same as the Euro. You can find positives and negatives for that, so we'll see what happens. But MOS will go away since we won't have those models to base it off of, and we won't have the stats for the new one yet.

1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

Does it have a pet name?

I've seen NGGPS and FV3 both used, but who knows where it'll settle. Maybe it'll be like when the AVN became the GFS and people just kept calling it the AVN.

[DavisStraight]

Harvey upped his totals from 6, more widespread 6-12 with 12+ in some areas. He looked too low at 6.