Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Some bridge jumpers in CNE and NNE if that played out like that.  I being one of them.

That's only through 33 hours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weird random note about that storm....while I was thundersnowing my way to > 2 foot depths in ORH during that one...and most inside of 495 were raining, there was this very narrow zone of ZR....quite rare for that synoptic setup with a marginal airmass. But my cousins lived in Hopkinton at the time and they got about 5" of paste that flipped to marginal ZR at 31F and they just went to town fr hours with it. They must've had almost a half inch of ice from that on top of the paste already clinging to everything....knocked power out for basically the whole town ad some of the towns nearby in that small zone.

 

Anyways...

I never knew that...wow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

In this image is the bright banding over us heavy rain sleet or snow?

I cant get rgem soundings, not sure if they have them. But it is damn cold at 850 and 925 so I’d guess huge parachutes with ice nuclei covering the entire sky. You won’t see more than 50ft in front of you. 

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Some bridge jumpers in CNE and NNE if that played out like that.  I being one of them.

That's only through 33 hrs

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weird random note about that storm....while I was thundersnowing my way to > 2 foot depths in ORH during that one...and most inside of 495 were raining, there was this very narrow zone of ZR....quite rare for that synoptic setup with a marginal airmass. But my cousins lived in Hopkinton at the time and they got about 5" of paste that flipped to marginal ZR at 31F and they just went to town fr hours with it. They must've had almost a half inch of ice from that on top of the paste already clinging to everything....knocked power out for basically the whole town ad some of the towns nearby in that small zone.

 

Anyways...

 Wow that is really cool dude I love those kind of under the radar sneaky little anomalies like that they just get lost in time and obscurity of smaller scale's 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's only through 33 hours.

Thanks--the label "through model run" threw me.

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I honestly do not know what type of precip that is.

It was like 6"/hr stuff

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Unisys 3hr pres drop has it off mid NC coast

SPC meso wind direction put it around same

NAM does not look far off to me, but good pickup, this is gonna be fun tracking thru the night... I think the further south --> later capture --> further east track

NAM and GFS were NW today at 22Z , Euro dead nutz,that's when I locked the Euro in here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Some bridge jumpers in CNE and NNE if that played out like that.  I being one of them.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I cant get rgem soundings, not sure if they have them. But it is damn cold at 850 and 925 so I’d guess huge parachutes with ice nuclei covering the entire sky. You won’t see more than 50ft in front of you. 

Check out the snow map

 

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Snowtornado incoming!

Don't joke. November 2005 map below produce two tornadoes NE of PWM.

[wxsniss]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We always see this just before go-time on Miller Bs.

Yep! Unless of course they're uber-amped and early capture Philly specials lol... (I know you know this)

Was all about the trajectory/momentum of the trough shooting east and where the surface low gets captured... 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never knew that...wow.

 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 Wow that is really cool dude I love those kind of under the radar sneaky little anomalies like that they just get lost in time and obscurity of smaller scale's 

Yeah totally cool....its so rare mostly because it's hard to get that type of razor's edge to stay stationary during a coastal like that...esp in a marginal airmass....but it did. It just basically straddled about a 2-town wide zone for 6-8 hours. We were out picking up my cousins to stay out our house the next day since they were powerlss and I couldn't believe the amount of ice there.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, tavwtby said:

It was like 6"/hr stuff

Sweet. Kind of thought it was heavy rain to snow 

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I cant get rgem soundings, not sure if they have them. But it is damn cold at 850 and 925 so I’d guess huge parachutes with ice nuclei covering the entire sky. You won’t see more than 50ft in front of you. 

Where are you finding 925 temps for the RGEM?

[CT Rain]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Don't joke. November 2005 map below produce two tornadoes NE of PWM.

Decent dmaage too from those

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

I work in Johnston, live in Coventry.  Basically, my commute is a straight shot down 295/95.

Higher end of Coventry near West Greenwich will get smoked 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Where are you finding 925 temps for the RGEM?

Pivotal weather

[powderfreak]

NYC going big on REGGIE.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Check out the snow map

 

A Big Apple Basher.

[snowdazed]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Higher end of Coventry near West Greenwich will get smoked 

Oh, that's not good....  

Of course, the local mets are saying 1-3"....

[MBRI]

6 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

I work in Johnston, live in Coventry.  Basically, my commute is a straight shot down 295/95.

howdy neighbor

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, RGEM really blows the load down near the tri state.....doesn't really redevelop up here.

Sucks.

Flag for going widespread >12".

[snowdazed]

Just now, MBRI said:

howdy neighbor

 

*waves*

Sounds like tomorrow will be a half-day sort of thing.  I hope I gauge the timing right... I don't really enjoy driving right into the paste.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Decent dmaage too from those

Ripping +SN in AUG while tornadoes are ripping by IWI.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Where are you finding 925 temps for the RGEM?

Pivotal

[CT Rain]

GFS is SE

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, RGEM really blows the load down near the tri state.....doesn't really redevelop up here.

Sucks.

Flag for going widespread >12".

It's counting some of your qpf as rain on the clown maps....erroneously IMHO. You still have a lot of qpf.

[ineedsnow]

Gfs wont budge with the warmth

[wxsniss]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAM and GFS were NW today at 22Z , Euro dead nutz,that's when I locked the Euro in here.

Yeah I posted earlier today... I've been sweating because I told my boss and my entire group 6-10 for Boston... I got amused looks

I gave Euro weight for being relatively consistent, but I was nervous this would capture early and blow it's load on Philly/NYC northwest like lots of other guidance showed

We'll see... still want to see more support that trough shoots out more east. Gonna be fun to track real-time H5 over OH valley and surface pressure obs down south.