Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Lava Rock]

What are the chances my wife's flight from Raleigh to Bos, landing at 7pm tomorrow isn't cxcld?

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Steve just quit the board.

Way too low in NE CT imho. I actually think that area adjacent to the 600-800 foot hills in NW RI could really do well. 

Now theyll get 2" since I said that. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Think the bust potential is growing exponentially east of the Berks and south of Route 2

Wut?  Maybe E of ORH S of Pike but anyone N or W of there is getting warning snow.  Nobody in SNE should be planning on over a foot  or they are setting themselves up for disappointment.

[Juliancolton]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Love that look when there's like 8" of snow sticking to the east side of tree trunks all the way up and down the tree.

I have an old disused flagpole in my yard that really emphasizes that effect. Such a cool appearance. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Way too low in NE CT imho. I actually think that area adjacent to the 600-800 foot hills in NW RI could really do well. 

Now theyll get 2" since I said that. 

What do you have from here up to ORH ?

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's exactly what will happen.

Lots of widow makers and not showing split trees,  not good

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting.  Doesn't radiational cooling cause the dew to rise too?  I'm just used to like 39/20, the sun goes down, and then all the sudden its 30/25.

 

 

think of it this way

Pressure X Volume = Number of moles X a gass constant X Temperature

When radiational cooling takes place, the the temperature is dropping ... but, the pressure and volume in this above equation is remaining constant, and since the gas constant is not going to change, that means you have to input some sort of mass (number of moles) into the system in order to keep this physical equation ...   Input of water (raise DP)...  That source can come from the earth and see/hydro.. (yes snow and ice count in that...)  ... 

But, more often times in radiational cooling the pressure or volume may be changing a small amount and the DP can thus remain closer to constant while the temperature falls.  This latter effect can take place when diurnal cooling sets in, the Volume (lower thickness) goes down some as the primary balancing mechanism, and that allows the temperature to descend without having to input mass - this is more typically how the temp falls in late august through autumn. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Way too low in NE CT imho. I actually think that area adjacent to the 600-800 foot hills in NW RI could really do well. 

Now theyll get 2" since I said that. 

I could see North Foster Woodstock Killingly break a foot, map made by someone not familiar with local climo

[powderfreak]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 

think of it this way

Pressure X Volume = Number of moles X a gass constant X Temperature

When radiational cooling takes place, the the temperature is dropping ... but, the pressure and volume in this above equation is remaining constant, and since the gas constant is not going to change, that means you have to input some sort of mass (number of moles) into the system in order to keep this physical equation ...   Input of water (raise DP)...  That source can come from the earth and see/hydro.. (yes snow and ice count in that...)  ... 

But, more often times in radiational cooling the pressure or volume may be changing a small amount and the DP can thus remain closer to constant while the temperature falls.  This latter effect can take place when diurnal cooling sets in, the Volume (lower thickness) goes down some as the primary balancing mechanism, and that allows the temperature to descend without having to input mass - this is more typically how the temp falls in late august through autumn. 

Ahh bingo.  Thanks for that little lesson.  Makes sense and that pressure is the third variable I was missing in the equation.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Way too low in NE CT imho. I actually think that area adjacent to the 600-800 foot hills in NW RI could really do well. 

Now theyll get 2" since I said that. 

 

this may be my Ray bomb for this season, but I think Scott ends up with 6" of near translucent slush - when he picks up a shovel full, and tips it, it's like the water pouring off the pasta in a colander. 

gradate that to Mt Manadnock's 18.55"

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I could see North Foster Woodstock Killingly break a foot, map made by someone not familiar with local climo

I told my sister, who lives in. Burrilville, to expect 10-14”.   That was earlier today.

Might lower it to 7-11” or so

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you have from here up to ORH ?

I think 8-14" is a good forecast for the elevation zones there. Even in the lousy solutions I feel like ORH is still getting 7-9" and I'm pretty sure the crappiest solutions won't verify. But there's still weird things that could happen like subsidence zones and such. So need to put the floor down there.

I am hesitant to go higher than 14 because of the somewhat more progressive look versus some of the stall scenarios yesterday. But we can't rule out 16-18 lollis in spots...esp if euro is more correct and we have a longner residence time inside the good midlevel stuff and dryslot shunts mostly east. 

 

[DavisStraight]

19 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Steve just quit the board.

Kevin too

[tavwtby]

Is it me or is the low not digging as much as modeled? Seems more N at this time frame

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think 8-14" is a good forecast for the elevation zones there. Even in the lousy solutions I feel like ORH is still getting 7-9" and I'm pretty sure the crappiest solutions won't verify. But there's still weird things that could happen like subsidence zones and such. So need to put the floor down there.

I am hesitant to go higher than 14 because of the somewhat more progressive look versus some of the stall scenarios yesterday. But we can't rule out 16-18 lollis in spots...esp if euro is more correct and we have a longner residence time inside the good midlevel stuff and dryslot shunts mostly east. 

 

Yeah that all makes sense . My feeling is the folks that lowered today will jack em right back up tomorrow morning . Mesos so far tonight already going back east / colder. I have a solid 12-13” here as the call . Wouldn’t be shocked at 14–16

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that all makes sense . My feeling is the folks that lowered today will jack em right back up tomorrow morning . Mesos so far tonight already going back east / colder. I have a solid 12-13” here as the call . Wouldn’t be shocked at 14–16

10-14" for you is what I'd say.  Same as Will and your thoughts but I think you get 10" regardless, all ball busting aside.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

10-14" for you is what I'd say.  Guess it's same as Will but I think you get 10" regardless.

Some of these 3-6 and 6-8 maps tonight are head scratchers for sure. There’s just nothing to support that 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some of these 3-6 and 6-8 maps tonight are head scratchers for sure. There’s just nothing to support that 

6-10 is very possible too. These dryslots always move in faster and it will be crap snow when the DGZ dries out.

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that all makes sense . My feeling is the folks that lowered today will jack em right back up tomorrow morning . Mesos so far tonight already going back east / colder. I have a solid 12-13” here as the call . Wouldn’t be shocked at 14–16

I agree with that actually

[mahk_webstah]

38 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I honestly doubt it will matter much when the goods come in. Looks like a pretty hellacious thump in the afternoon. Thundersnow, 1-3" hour rates. I think it will be fun. 

You are so right.  In heavy snow there is no problem accumulating, even in April or May.  The only time it is a problem is in borderline temps during light or moderate snow.

[The 4 Seasons]

Looks like our first run of the 00z suite, the RPM will come in a hair colder and east from 21Z which was already moving in that direction. 

[WthrJunkyME]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

10-14" for you is what I'd say.  Same as Will and your thoughts but I think you get 10" regardless, all ball busting aside.

I hope we can pull that much here.  At 82” Total now, that would go a long way towards breaking a 100” season.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It seems like more and more someone near 128 is gonna have huge paste.  Even if they dryslot, you could have 8-10" of man paste.  

Where Are power outages Looking more likely 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6-10 is very possible too. These dryslots always move in faster and it will be crap snow when the DGZ dries out.

Except the slot is out east of CT

[kbc360]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I could see North Foster Woodstock Killingly break a foot, map made by someone not familiar with local climo

Don't forget Pomfret up on Brayman Hollow

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Where Are power outages Looking more likely 

I think 128-495 area is my best guess. Perhaps even in ORH county too if enough snow falls. It's gonna be wet in most spots so the outage factor is fairly high.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks like our first run of the 00z suite, the RPM will come in a hair colder and east from 21Z which was already moving in that direction. 

Yeah it is starting to back off those NAM-esque solutions from earlier....it even had a run that tracked over Kevin's fanny.

[J Paul Gordon]

29 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Dang it...I’m 2 miles south of Rte 2...

18 inches north, 4 to 6 immediately south. You'll be able to cross the highway to the jackpots. 

I'm not sure of anything, but NWS discussion page seems to be waffling a bit now.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

18 inches north, 4 to 6 immediately south. You'll be able to cross the highway to the jackpots. 

I'm not sure of anything, but NWS discussion page seems to be waffling a bit now.

ORH is gonna get smoked. No real worries there unless you're gunning for something crazy like 18"+

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think 128-495 area is my best guess. Perhaps even in ORH county too if enough snow falls. It's gonna be wet in most spots so the outage factor is fairly high.

I’m really hoping for an Octobomb redux...22” of powder.   I don’t think it will happen like that though...