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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I just picture back in the 1800s a weather weenie gets 10" of snow and is all giddy and happy walking around getting thy knickers wet.... then someone rides in on horseback talking about how where they just came from got half thy yardstick covered.  The weenie is like oh that's interesting.  Then the mail horse rides in and is like we were over yonder in Bos-Town and the snow was up to thy nutsack.  Then the weenie spends the rest of the day angrily chopping wood, cursing his screw zone.  He was all pleased with his snowstorm until he found out what what happened else where.

Jackpot fetishes have been around for generations

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I certainly do. That's 15 plus for Fairfield County.

Living on the edge of all the guidance.

We’re fine dood. Still like our 10-16” call from merrit on north. If things break well I can see lollies of 18-20” in lucky spots. 

Doesnt mean we dont tickle the sleet line but thats playing with fire, how we like it.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re fine dood. Still like our 10-16” call from merrit on north. If things break well I can see lollies of 18-20” in lucky spots. 

Doesnt mean we dont tickle the sleet line but thats playing with fire, how we like it.

I hope our coastal friends score big too like the RGEM.

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The good ole firehose

The Details:  Primary axis of snow will be south of the region...
just entering southern New England at 12 UTC.  Have to watch coastal
areas in the morning with model sounding profiles showing the
potential for some ocean enhanced snow shower or perhaps drizzle
give saturated low levels.  Have boosted PoPs but will not mention
drizzle/freezing drizzle until confidence in this scenario grows.
Otherwise...have sped up snowfall arrival time an hour or two from
what was inherited with conditions rapidly deteriorating as
southeasterly low level jet strengthens ahead of strengthening low
pressure to the south.   This -4 to -5 sigma easterly jet will
result in what looks to be a "firehose" of heavy precipitation that
arrives over southern New Hampshire after 4pm with about a 6-9 hour
period of 1-3" per hour snowfall rates following this.  MUCAPE progs
indicate some potential for thundersnow perhaps sneaking into
coastal areas.  Thus...the 5pm-5am period looks the most dangerous
in terms of travel.  On Thursday...low pressure moves into the Gulf
of Maine while filling as it then slowly wobbles north and west
across eastern and northern Maine Thursday night.  Thus...expect all
areas to be snowing at daybreak with a gradual decrease in snowfall
intensity and coverage from south to north during the day as dynamic
forcing wanes and low pressure weakens.

Snow:  Have not made substantial changes to the snow forecast with
this package...with 12-18" for most locations...but focusing a band
in the climatologically favored area just inland from the coast /EEN-
SFM-LEW/ of a few inches more than this...reaching to around 20".
Biggest questions are along the immediate coast...with boundary
layer temperatures marginal through Wednesday afternoon and evening
before any mix collapses back to the coast after midnight.
Here...have some amounts near 6" along the immediate coast...quickly
ramping up as you head inland.  Some room for these to change as
well given that we/re still about 24 hours before things really get
going.
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28 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not fun.  Two months ago today I had an a-fib episode (heart rate cycling between 70 and 170 every 3-4 minutes - my normal is 48-50) that earned me a very bumpy meatwagon ride and two nights in hospital with lots of tests, plus a heart cath the following Friday.  Did the symptoms start at midday that windy and bitter Saturday (my max was -6) while I was chopping away the solid 3-4 ft deep plow pile so we could get mail delivery?  Of course not.  It was 8 hours later as I sat at the dining room table addressing envelopes.  However, I got away lots easier than you did.  After the cath, the specialists (and later visits with the cardiologist) recommended no invasive procedures, just meds and staying alert.  The cardiologist also noted that for folks with sleep apnea (like me - I use a CPAP every night), a-fib is a question of when, not if.  Later I talked with my older - by 3 years - brother on his 75th birthday, and found out he'd had some a-fib episodes as well, and his rate spiked to over 180.  (All our lives he's been able to beat me at almost everything, except deer hunting and that's only because I live in the woods and he spent 28 years traveling all over with the Army COE.)

Comment on the bypass - My wife had a heart attack 10+ years ago, near complete blockage of the left coronary artery.  We had 30 minutes notice before she headed in for a double bypass.  (Heart surgeon said later that even the smallest clot and there would've been no chance of survival.)  That was October of 2007 and she's been symptom free ever since.  May you do even better.  There are too few Maine peeps on this board - we can't afford to lose any.  ;)

And I'm looking forward to the 12-18" that GYX is currently predicting for my area.  In my 19 previous March snows, I've had 15"+ just twice, 8 days apart late month in 2001.  It's time for #3.

When I had the chest pain, I was convincing myself that I had pulled a muscle while changing out my truck’s snow tires that day, and yes, Saturday.  Was completely relaxed and ready for bed when it happened.  It was a workout having to bring the tire/wheels up from the basement.  But not to be.  I’m still learning what happened to me and my struggles ahead.

Glad to hear you made out well but you’ll obviously have to always have your “self-awareness”.  Your wife is blessed!  Thanks for the note, Maine brother!:thumbsup:

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