Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Canal, not Boston.

It's just West of the canal by about 10mi.

[Cold Miser]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We rain.

Rain Noreaster Part duex?

The bridge won't have enough room for all of the weenies that will be jumping.
 

 

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

Understand it might be too amplified, but I don't like seeing the low track over SE MA. Way too close for comfort IMBY.

Embrace the canal track and play with fire. That's the prime spot for a S NH crusher. 

[dan11295]

Am pretty sure 12z EURO comes west, how much is the question.

[rnaude241]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's just West of the canal by about 10mi.

Right over me... ugh this winter.

[jbenedet]

Just now, WxBlue said:

Understand it might be too amplified, but I don't like seeing the low track over SE MA. Way too close for comfort IMBY.

The circulation tightens up by the time it gets to SE MA, so we should see the gradient tighten up on the North/West side of the circulation with heights crashing. I'm not concerned for us. Hampton beach area on south, is getting close to some taint, I agree...but that was already well reflected in the EPS probs.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, DomNH said:

Embrace the canal track and play with fire. That's the prime spot for a S NH crusher. 

Exactly. I did some wishcasting on this one, and it worked spectacularly. 

[Hoth]

If the NAM is a little overamped, as I suspect it will prove, Jan '11 would still be a solid track analog. Possible parts of CT could flirt with a dry slot for a time, but still a good outcome for many.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Thanks. Just seems super jumpy with the center of the low when its trying to differentiate as to what to do.

Can't rule it out either but just my uneducated opinion.  I'm not talking wilding different either.  Maybe 20-30 miles.

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Having the GFS and NAM together only means they're united in their terribleness.

Careful......wouldn't put them to bed just yet.  NAM is definitely more amped for sure which is probably causing the closer track.  If GFS holds course and Euro comes West then NAM for the win.  If GFS caves to Euro more than we can probably say its the Nam being the Nam.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Exactly. I did some wishcasting on this one, and it worked spectacularly. 

It worked for me in the Jan system. I’ve doubled down...and so far so good.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s going to be pretty aggravating if the euro caves. I don’t care how well it scores. This would be a massive fail here.

The NAM is a cold rain here. I’d rather get zero snow if it’s going to be meaningless slop 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's just West of the canal by about 10mi.

10 miles not worth quibbling over unless you're looking at the 3km.

[Hoth]

12 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Rain Noreaster Part duex?

The bridge won't have enough room for all of the weenies that will be jumping.
 

 

Or rather, with the growing pile of bodies beneath it, it will no longer be a lethal option.

[DomNH]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Exactly. I did some wishcasting on this one, and it worked spectacularly. 

In a perfect world, we want it maybe just a hair east of the canal. Don't want dendrite to steal our jackpot. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Understand it might be too amplified, but I don't like seeing the low track over SE MA. Way too close for comfort IMBY.

You need to sniff the taint to get the goods......................

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s going to be pretty aggravating if the euro caves. I don’t care how well it scores. This would be a massive fail here.

The NAM is a cold rain here. I’d rather get zero snow if it’s going to be meaningless slop 

You're prob cooked even if the Euro wins the compromise between NAM/GFS solutions. You can't really afford much room.

[wxsniss]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This H5 pattern supports the low track near NJ though and then kissing SNE coast. I know it's the NAM, but it's not like I can laugh at that solution like I normally do at the NAM. I can't help but think the euro comes west. Even if the NAM is too amped, it's tough for BOS area to have a snowy scenario unless the euro solution verified. Definitely an interior event.

Agree, the way that trough is digging you expect earlier capture and tighter track... with jackpots maybe NEPA - western SNE - CNE... 

For our interests in eastern SNE, we gotta hope Euro has better handling of the block and the entire trough is squashed east just in time like the 0z NAM  

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Understand it might be too amplified, but I don't like seeing the low track over SE MA. Way too close for comfort IMBY.

Enjoy all of the snow. 

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Can't rule it out either but just my uneducated opinion.  I'm not talking wilding different either.  Maybe 20-30 miles.

Oh I agree for sure with you there as well, but that scraping of Long Island and more east than northeast will do wonders for sure. Curious to see the rest of the 12z suite here shortly.

[MarkO]

2 hours ago, JC-CT said:

Not sure who you are referring to, most have a very sharp gradient

Pretty much everyone on this board. I haven't heard anyone talk the possibility of a GFS/NAM solution, both of which have been showing a mostly rain event inside 128.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, jbenedet said:

10 miles not worth quibbling over unless you're looking at the 3km.

10mi in this set will mean the difference between no snow and like a foot. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You're prob cooked even if the Euro wins the compromise between NAM/GFS solutions. You can't really afford much room.

Yeah he's cooked. This isn't the setup for I-95.

[apm]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s pretty crazy to see most outlets and forecasters taking a steaming dump on the euro. Its the outlier... but I’d be pretty nervous forecasting 1-2” down here when the euro continues to show 12-18”.

Just odd to see the euro completely tossed 

But at this point it is much older info.

[wx2fish]

7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Embrace the canal track and play with fire. That's the prime spot for a S NH crusher. 

Any further west and wed have some mid level dryslot issues. That run is close but would work. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

Careful......wouldn't put them to bed just yet.  NAM is definitely more amped for sure which is probably causing the closer track.  If GFS holds course and Euro comes West then NAM for the win.  If GFS caves to Euro more than we can probably say its the Nam being the Nam.

Oh I expect the Euro to come west a bit, I just think the uber-amped solutions are out to lunch. GFS has been notoriously bad with east coast cyclogenesis, and the NAM is the NAM. I still think we compromise with a track just SE of Montaulk and over the elbow.  

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s going to be pretty aggravating if the euro caves. I don’t care how well it scores. This would be a massive fail here.

The NAM is a cold rain here. I’d rather get zero snow if it’s going to be meaningless slop 

Hey, you've had a 20"er this winter already, haven't you? Can't complain.

[TalcottWx]

Great pbp while at work. High fiving over to rain in 3 minutes. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah he's cooked. This isn't the setup for I-95.

Hopefully I don’t have to listen to how good the Euro did. IF it caves, it was schooled by the other models, which have had little here for days.

 

[ORH_wxman]

A lot will depend on how compact the mid-level lows are....the 5H setup wasnt that different from the 06z NAM, but 06z got elongated a bit quicker and compacted everything so it was colder closer to the coast.