Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[tavwtby]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I had to take Calc 1 & 2 for my environmental science degree, but never used it for anything.

I've used it from time to time for some calculations for testing but mostly use mechanics and strength of materials formulas, which I guess is calc based, but I can't recall using derivative equations in 30 years, other than maybe a few times

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lol...the calc part was a waste for me.  Gawd those classes were hard.  Glad I got to take stats and Fortran for math requirements after those. 

My favorite undergrad classes were glacial and Pleistocene geology, Hydro, Anything with Dr. Eby, who is still there...

After the Perfect Storm my oceanology class spent 3 weeks examining eroded dunes layers. Learned a ton about overwash and glacial layers 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said:

I took a course focused on the Ottoman Empire and I use it every day while navigating office politics. 

Must get pretty heated around the water cooler in between the baby pictures.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

We must be in between model runs

New here?

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The more I dig into this system now that the real world job is done, the more I think someone in this area ends up with 2'.

can you please move that sw....pretty please

[ORH_wxman]

Y'all realize we have a banter thread, right? 

Just logged on and read 3 pages of which maybe 10% was storm related. 

Lets get back on topic a bit. Dead zone is over anyway. 

[Dpb1983]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

can you please move that sw....pretty please

Lunenburg!

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Y'all realize we have a banter thread, right? 

Just logged on and read 3 pages of which maybe 10% was storm related. 

Lets get back on topic a bit. Dead zone is over anyway. 

Post the SREFS?

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM will prob ease up a little compared to 18z

Brian’s chooks will live to cluck another day

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We have entered...

 

 

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We do dead zone well

Appropriate since this storm will most likely keep me from getting to the Bob Weir and Phil Lesh gig at the Wang Center Wednesday night. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Post the SREFS?

21z ramped up the qpf,

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Post the SREFS?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

NAM will prob ease up a little compared to 18z

Brian’s chooks will live to cluck another day

Best part of dead zone discussion, predictions  what a model will do.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Must get pretty heated around the water cooler in between the baby pictures.

Like the Battle of Mohács. 

And, of course, on the topic at hand, I wonder whether a slightly further east solution resulting in higher totals or the recently projected mix/paste would be more impactful in recovering areas of SNE. Winds don’t look as potent as the last system, but the weight of wet snow brings the threshold of what it takes for winds to be damaging down quite a bit. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What does Dendrite do for a living? Dude is brilliant, probably owns WU

Adult films

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Best part of dead zone discussion, predictions  what a model will do.

The first few hours of this run are beautiful, with Friday’s gyre whirling to the east and our storm getting together in the plains

[HIPPYVALLEY]

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Potential is way up there. Too early but Jan 11?

Jan 11 was an interesting storm where this area got 14-18" while areas E of here in the Quabbin hill towns got less and then more again from HubbaDave to ORH.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The first few hours of this run are beautiful, with Friday’s gyre whirling to the east and our storm getting together in the plains

They are getting smoked out there Rochester MN gusted to 60 today

[Buddy1987]

Looks like so far everything is wanting to shift southwest some wrt to the main players through 27.

[Ginx snewx]

Holy heck look at that Vort max

[ORH_wxman]

That southern vort is dragging its heels...that will push everything east of 18z if it doesn't recover.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Jan 11 was an interesting storm where this area got 14-18" while areas E of here in the Quabbin hill towns got less and then more again from HubbaDave to ORH.

26 here in that one, despite dipping into the dry slot for an hour in the middle of the night.

[dryslot]

Southern s/w little weaker on the nam, Probably going to go a couple tics east this run

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That southern vort is dragging its heels...that will push everything east of 18z if it doesn't recover.

Heights are a bit lower ahead of it too, S of LI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That southern vort is dragging its heels...that will push everything east of 18z if it doesn't recover.

You don't say....lol

[JBinStoughton]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You don't say....lol

East please!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JBinStoughton said:

East please!

Central and eastern areas will get creamed, but not the foolish stall that dumps 30".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You don't say....lol

OK brah, we get it. Add some meat to the discussion, and not your weenie.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OK brah, we get it. Add some meat to the discussion and not your weenie.

I've added plenty of meat on the link provided...feel free to delve in.

[JBinStoughton]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Central and eastern areas will get creamed, but not the foolish stall that dumps 30".

I don’t need 30”. I just need to not be in the 5% that gets rained on lol.