Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[amarshall]

2 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

So it looks like we get 1.5" of rain then a switch to some nuance snow at the end down here if i am reading the models right?

yes more winter of futility 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Still looks like over an inch frozen this run... but barely. It’s about 25 miles away from being a nothingburger.

That was a good shift west on the euro.... still 2 days for that to come even more west.

Ill wait until tonight, but I’ve learned my lesson from the last storm. I’m not going to waste time tracking a marginal situation that will ultimately rain 

Back to your true self I see. A big part of this hobby is the tracking, the chase. It doesnt always yield the results we want but it creates a learning experience while having fun in the process. If you simply want results then this isnt for you buddy. Just turn on the news when you wake up and find out what is falling outside. 

[eyewall]

Still going to need a little help to get to double digits here but that is looking better. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I think Ray is in an excellent spot for this.  Him over to Lawrence/Lowell...

Yeah interior NE MA may do very well with prolonged commahead snows.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah interior NE MA may do very well with prolonged commahead snows.

And I need to be in Lowell Thursday afternoon....

[weathafella]

I didn’t think the euro changed all that much by the time it got to our area at least for eastern folk.  A few more on the margins but it seems more noise?  

[CT Rain]

There are some very tucked in EPS members. Rain risk. 

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

There are some very tucked in EPS members. Rain risk. 

Rain risk all the way back here too Ryan or is western CT good?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

27 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

So it looks like we get 1.5" of rain then a switch to some nuance snow at the end down here if i am reading the models right?

The euro may be a bit more wintry, but that’s the general idea.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Tuck tuck goose.

[jbenedet]

My best guess in terms of track, intensity RA/SN line and max snowfall area/total.

[MarkO]

Based on the way this winter has been, I'd toss my money on a more westerly/GFS solution. Of course I've pretty much been wrong on nearly every storm this winter, so watch this one go east of the benchmark.

[#NoPoles]

I'm still going with my area over the Cape will be rain dry slot, and could push 50...upper 40s at least

[Great Snow 1717]

26 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

There are some very tucked in EPS members. Rain risk. 

Right now I'd take the over on temps and the under on snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nam not biting, keeps trending with an earlier tick of stream interaction.

[Tiktock]

I am a bit nervous where I am.  I huge the MA/NH border just north of Haverhill.  I'm a bit worried being so close to the coast...many maps still showing a sharp gradient along I-95....think that will be real or snow right to the beach?

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nam not biting, keeps trending with an earlier tick of stream interactions.

Not biting on what?

[Great Snow 1717]

22 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess in terms of track, intensity RA/SN line and max snowfall area/total.

I certainly hope that you are right. I'd love to have one more good snowstorm before spring creeps in.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not biting on what?

On what Ray is trying to sell? I dunno. Its not backing down...whatever, you get the point. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Valid for 06z Thursday.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess in terms of track, intensity RA/SN line and max snowfall area/total.

If it took a track that far west it would turn to rain nw of ORH to HFD

[WxBlue]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not biting on what?

On the track becoming more east toward the consensus with less amplification.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks like an elbow track to me? You could pick those interior members or you could also say it will go straight east from Atlantic City.

[tamarack]

25 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess in terms of track, intensity RA/SN line and max snowfall area/total.

Not liking that left turn, which would seem to threaten most of C/N Maine with a snow-to-rain scenario given the paucity of cold air.  6" snow followed by hours of rain = a mess that I don't see on the few models I can easily access.  (Nor on any recent AFDs from GYX.)  Hope I'm misinterpreting.  

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

On what Ray is trying to sell? I dunno. Its not backing down...whatever, you get the point. 

I feel like that storm off shore is further west than what it was modeled. It is now being picked up and pushing everything further west....I happy where we stand, we don't need anymore western trends, at least us here on the western side.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If it took a track that far west it would turn to rain nw of ORH to HFD

Maybe briefly. I have the storm peaking intensity over SE MA. Will see a tightening of the thickness lines as it intensifies....

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

On what Ray is trying to sell? I dunno. Its not backing down...whatever, you get the point. 

I didn't pay attention to what Ray was selling I guess.

I thought the GFS made a huge jump at 12z, the same direction the NAM did.

[Buddy1987]

I almost feel like the NAM may shift a tick east looking at 5h for 18z. Guess we will see here in a couple of minutes.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Valid for 06z Thursday.

 

That’s a ridiculous amount of spread this close in!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Looks like an elbow track to me? You could pick those interior members or you could also say it will go straight east from Atlantic City.

Control run of EPS virtually over the BM.