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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

NAM is another cold rainer for those in E SNE. 

I quit if the EURO caves...

It won’t cave in one shot.  That’s like a 100 mile shift.  It’ll take 3-4 runs easily.  The NAM is too far west, but a track maybe 50 Miles to the east of that is very possible and that’s still too far west for most 

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

What a crush for us in Dendriteland.  The biggest storm of the season.   Finally a 12 pluser...

It's the NAM though and I'm not going to trust it with its handling of the synoptics this far out. Fun to look at, but next...

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14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I said this a few days ago, but this really is a Miller A/B system. In fact this is looking more Miller A over time, with a late phase after becoming vertically stacked around hr 72...

Would be <980 mb storm if we could bring forward the timing of that final phase by 12 hours or so...

I think it's more Miller B.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

In the history of weather boards, those threatening to quit have a 0% success rate. I think they're 0 for 4,852 now.

I'll quit for 2 hours before the excitement grows for the 3/12 threat...before that turns into a rainer/nonevent for the coast.

Dang, this hobby is frustrating. 

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Disagree.

Yeah I have a hard time buying the NAM verbatim...it's basically agreeing with the ARW model which has like a 99% success rate of being too far amped. If we get something like the 06z NAM (which was still more amped than the 00z Euro and close to GFS), that would paste most folks outside of far SE areas.

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20 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Great run for out here. I would like to see more of the region get in on the goods though hopefully it’s too amped. Not much of a difference of impact between 6z and 12z in ORH county.

ahh....the rest of the region has had their fair share over the years, its time for us to jack, and us only, while everyone else dryslots and rains.  

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's more Miller B.

It's somewhat debatable at this point but the trend has been towards a sharper southern stream shortwave earlier on. You can see a defined SLP near the Gulf of Mexico now....

We'd still have a Nor'Easter without the Northern stream disturbance, so that tilts it towards a Miller A in my book....

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